The Price Of Long Staple Cotton Is Very Stable.

It is understood that on April, 19-22, the price of long staple cotton in the territory was stable, and the trend of continuous inflation of cotton ginning enterprises and cotton merchants was suppressed. The 137, 237 and 336 grades of long staple cotton produced in Awati were priced at 28200-28500 yuan / ton, 27000-27200 yuan / ton, 25800-26200 yuan / ton, and the difference between 137 grade and 237 and 336 grade was widened.

The entire Akesu market long staple cotton quotation, the paction is still not active, on the one hand, the cotton enterprise long staple cotton store saves many to sell, the 2014/15 late year long staple cotton serious supply insufficiency needs the anticipation is stronger, some manufacturers sell the difference to keep good, the price lets the profit space very small; on the other hand, along with SJV PIMA, Egypt, Ji Zha 86, Ji Zha 88 and so on, the outer cotton has arrived in the main port of China successively, plus the 4/5 month will have part 2015 Australian cotton shipment, the arrival port delivery, from all aspects feedback information, the Australian cotton length, the strength and other indicators are all good, therefore the mainland cotton textile factory, the operator to the Xinjiang long staple cotton wait-and-see manner is getting stronger, the buyer and the buyer's psychological anticipation is enlarged.

A cotton trader in Awati said that since April, the PLA's long staple cotton has accelerated the progress of the mainland's relocation. The 137 level offer has not only failed to stand on 29000 yuan / ton, but has been slightly reduced.

The factory has acquired a total of 6000 tons of long staple cotton in 2014/15, and has sold 2000 tons as of mid April, with a profit of 300-500 yuan / ton.

From Awati, Sha ya, Kuche, Xinhe, Ke Ping and Bachu, Yuli, Pu Hui and other southern Xinjiang.

According to the survey, the growth of planting area of long staple cotton in 2015 will be larger than that of the previous 25%, and the growth of cotton cashmere area will reach 30-40%.

On the one hand, in the past two years, Akesu, South Xinjiang,

The yield per unit area of long staple cotton increased rapidly, and the average yield of Awati long staple cotton was not less than 300 kg in 2014/15. Not only the selling price of seed cotton was much higher than that of fine cotton, but also the cotton direct subsidy in 2014 was higher than that of fine staple cotton.

On the other hand, with the upgrading and structural adjustment of China's cotton textile industry, the main varieties of yarn will be upgraded to C40S or above, and the C32S and below low yarn positions will be lost. The demand for high grade and high quality cotton will be connected to the steps. The amount of long staple cotton consumption in 2014/15 will exceed 150 thousand tons. Within the agricultural sector and farmers, the risk of planting long staple cotton is generally lower than that of fine staple cotton and other crops. Some cotton producing areas and even 60-70%'s cultivated land are long staple cotton. Taking into account the irrigation water, soil quality and cotton farmers' habits, it is a good choice to replant long staple cotton.

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According to the long-term benchmark of USDA, China's share of global cotton consumption will increase from 37% in 2012-2014 to 37% in 2009, but it is still lower than the 42% highest in the year.

The analysis of the US Department of agriculture believes that, in the long run, China's cotton policy will continue to be market-oriented, balance the interests of cotton farmers and textile mills, digest huge stock of domestic cotton, and fulfill related commitments to WTO entry.

The relevant economic policies in the communiqu of the three plenary session of the CPC Central Committee in November 2013 pointed out the direction for China's future cotton policy, and emphasized that marketization played a decisive role in the allocation of resources.

In January 2014, China's State Council officially announced that cotton direct subsidy should be implemented in Xinjiang, so as to achieve the separation of cotton prices from government support and return cotton prices to the market.

The Cotton Subsidy Policy in 2014 provided guidelines for China's future cotton policy. In order to reduce market distortions, the government adopted the target price, which is lower than the reserve price in 2012 and 2013, and the support outside Xinjiang is smaller.

This variable, target price based subsidy is only limited to Xinjiang. Even in the course of last year's drop in the price of reserves, there was no re opening of the lowest price.

The support policy for Xinjiang beyond 2014 is only a fixed subsidy of 2000 yuan / ton.

Another policy decision for future directionality is to set a sliding tariff rate in the new deal of 2014.

The "target tax rate" for sliding tariff quotas in 2014 is similar to the sliding tariff rate before 2011, which shows the government's support for price.

The regulation states that if the international cotton price and RMB exchange rate are unchanged from a year ago, the target tariff can become a tariff of sliding tariff import.

On the basis of value-added tax and other charges, the sliding tariff of 10% in 2014 is actually equivalent to 27% price protection for domestic cotton prices.

In the 8 years before the implementation of quasi tax, the historical average tariff rate of VAT is 25%, which shows that the two are very close.

From 2005 to 2010, the price of cotton in China was higher than the international price, which was almost the same as that of the value-added tax.

From these policy signals, the Chinese government's support for cotton prices will weaken in the short term, and in the long run, it may return to the level of the historical long-term average.

China's internal and external cotton price differences can not be completely eliminated, because price support is a long-term component of China's cotton policy, and maintaining the lowest price will also limit budgetary expenditure of the newly born cotton direct subsidy.

Therefore, the most likely situation for China's future price support is to return to the average level of 2005-2010 years. That is to say, the price of China's purchase price is higher than that of foreign farms, and the price will fall from 50% to 2011-2013 in average, and the price will be converted to lint price, which will drop from 50-60% to 25-30%.

This is consistent with the USDA's long-term benchmark forecast for 2014.