Domestic Cotton Supply And Demand Is Becoming More And More Expensive In Recent Years.

Market related

There has been a lot of discussion about the trend, especially the recent fluctuations in Zheng cotton. The speculation of the market on the dumping and storage has brought some uncertainties to the stable cotton price.

What will be the effect of dumping? These days, more and more information about dumping and storage is heard, and we hear more and more confusion.

Dumping and storage are highly policy oriented and uncertain. Any speculation without sources is undesirable, especially when to throw, throw and price.

Therefore, the author thinks that some problems about throwing and storing can be considered more often.

It needs to be emphasized that many industries worry that throwing reserves will break the current cotton supply and demand pattern, which I think is certain.

But this can not be equated with changes in supply and demand, and prices will fall.

Just imagine, if the national cotton price is set at 15000 yuan / ton, do you think the current price is "hit down" or "pull up"? Therefore, sometimes we worry too much about some vague things.

Up to now,

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the total output of cotton in the whole country is about 6 million 510 thousand tons this year. From the number of lint processed, public inspection and warehousing, the total output of cotton in Xinjiang in 2014/15 is not less than 4 million 400 thousand tons.

As of mid May, the sales of cotton in Xinjiang had been completed by about 65%, that is to say, the commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton was less than 440 * 0.35=154 million tons.

What's more, we need to pay attention to that the sale of hand picked cotton in Xinjiang this year is very fast. At present, it is difficult to find it in the market. Most of the rest are hand picked cotton and medium and low quality hand picked cotton.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, in 2015, the cotton planting area in China was 51 million 187 thousand mu, down 20.1% from the same period last year.

Judging from this data, it is closer to our estimate and is recognized by the market.

That is to say, about 30% of the national cotton reduction in 2015 is a big probability event.

Therefore, it is estimated that cotton output will reach 651 x 0.7=455.7 million tons in 2015.

From these questions, it is easy to see a few problems:

First, the domestic cotton supply and demand in recent years are becoming more and more intense.

The most important thing is the shortage of quality cotton. Xinjiang's high quality hand picked cotton basically has no commercial stocks. So what is the outer cotton? The author contacts several large traders in Zhangjiagang and Qingdao port. According to them, if the bonded area has been increased to more than 250 thousand tons, the warehouse will be "stormed" on the other hand, but it will be "starving" for the spinning enterprises. Why is it that there is no quota?

Over the past few days, a number of textile purchasing managers have asked the author whether it is possible to find some 2128 grade or above hand picked cotton or cotton and cotton.

Second, the days of spinning enterprises are getting better.

In many times the author and

In the exchange, most textile companies have realized profits since the beginning of this year. In particular, the profit level of 21 or more yarn is above 1000 yuan / ton, and some combed high count yarn even reaches 2000-3000 yuan / ton.

Everyone is making a big noise.

A Binzhou textile enterprise manager said that their factories mainly produced more than 40 Combed Yarns, and their products were mainly exported to countries such as Africa and Central Asia. They were relatively popular, especially in late April.

Third, demand is gradually improving.

The market believes that under the impetus of the "one belt and one way" policy, there is still growth expectation for downstream cotton exports.

In addition, from past years, 5 and June are still the peak season for cotton yarn and cotton cloth demand, and at present, the inventory of finished products or raw materials is still at a low level, which provides an interval for the latter market to rise.

This year, the state adopted the policy to control the downward intention of the economy very obviously, because this year the central bank has cut interest rates for two times and once lowered the benchmark.

The market believes that this will bring positive benefits to the stock market, the housing market and the whole macro-economy.

According to the above analysis, cotton prices are likely to rise in the near future, especially if they are thrown in the near future, cotton prices will rise faster and more fiercely.