Foreign Media: After 10 Years, China'S Economy Is Hard To Predict.

According to a survey released this week by Bloomberg news, the median forecast value for Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment or retail sales this year is all over the actual value. In some cases, for example, China's industrial output in March or April. Investment Well, even the lowest estimate is more optimistic than the actual value.

Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University (Michael Pettis), said: "looking back at every miracle of economic growth in history, it is always very difficult. Adjustment period And the degree of difficulty is unexpected, even pessimists can predict mistakes.

Listen to Pettis's statement: "the economic adjustment period is always more difficult than imagined, so that my conclusion and economists and journalists are also disgusted with how China will become 10 years later. Only one thing is certain, that is, the prediction will be wrong."

In fact, China is also anxious to sacrifice. currency Loose measures and infrastructure investment to cope with the decline in economic growth, which makes some economists optimistic about the second half of this year China's economy will become stronger.

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The full release of market vitality is inseparable from the further deepening of the reform of the commercial system. Liu Junhai, director of the Institute of commercial law of Renmin University of China, believes that the reform of the enterprise registration system has reached the stage of "chorus", which requires all departments to work together to eliminate the "information island" and realize seamless access to resources of all platforms, so as to achieve the goal of achieving public entrepreneurship and innovation.

After 90 years, the founder of song hang started his career as an entrepreneur after only a few days. "Thanks to the" three certificate unification "of Beijing's industrial and commercial registration, it has saved a lot of trouble for start-ups, saving time and cost. Song hang said.

In the entrepreneurial Hall of Zhongguancun Venture Street, the reporter saw a continuous stream of young people who came to consult, handle certificates and exchange information. There are more than 60 government related departments, professional service organizations and investment and financing institutions. The aim is to create a convenient and efficient one-stop entrepreneurship service integration platform. The reception hall provides free entrepreneurial services for university students, such as policy consultation and declaration.

In the administrative service center of Tongzhou District, Beijing, there are 46 reception windows in less than 3000 square meters of office hall, of which 14 are the "three certificates one in one" joint window. The staff of the liaison office are reviewing the information submitted by the enterprise while guiding the applicant to improve the materials.

Business registration has also become more convenient. On the 19 day, the new registration and registration online service system of Beijing industry and Commerce Bureau was formally launched. Applicants can self help query, self fill, do not need to submit paper documents, and do not need to go to the registration authority to pick up paper notices. They can continue to apply for registration on line.

Since the implementation of the reform of the commercial system last year, a series of reforms have been launched, such as the registered capital subscription system, the first license, the annual report publicity system and so on. At present, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Jiangxi, Sichuan and many other places carry out the "three certificates integration". The applicant can receive a business license containing tax registration number and organization code number at once, so as to realize the three card handling procedures.

The reform has stimulated the enthusiasm of the masses to start businesses and social investment, and the volume of registration of the main market in all parts of the country has shown a "blowout" growth trend. Statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, 844 thousand new enterprises registered nationwide, representing an increase of 38.4% over the same period last year, but fell by 15% compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

Shandong's industrial and commercial registration market grew by more than 25% over the first quarter of this year. In Beijing, there are more than 5000 enterprises in the past three years. The average efficiency of the 4 working days has been saved by about 80%.

Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed to promote the facilitation of commercial registration, so as to realize the "three cards in one", "one by one code", and the construction of enterprise credit information publicity "a nationwide network", so as to release the signal to further deepen the reform of the commercial system to the whole society.

Some key points need to be broken through in the reform of business registration. Some enterprises have reflected that enterprises such as trans regional businesses are unable to handle the "three certificates integration", and the enterprises have been delayed due to the absence of legal persons.