How To Look At The Market Capital?

With regard to market funds, we think three points need to be paid attention to.

First of all, the funds in the capital market are very abundant at present. No matter the interest rate of the short and medium term bonds or the money market interest rate, the rate of return is very fast.

From the perspective of long-term funds, the real estate market has reached a consensus in the medium term, and the allocation of household assets to the stock market is the general trend.

So the stock market is not short of funds.

Second, the short-term inflow of outflows from the stock market is lagging behind the rise and fall of the market, rather than a decisive factor affecting the market's ups and downs.

Finally, even if the regulators introduce some policies to regulate the speed of capital flowing into the stock market, the starting point is also for the sustainability of the bull market, and its impact is only the speed of the marginal increase in the level of funds and does not change the general pattern of capital allocation.

Standing at the present time, it should be

The situation is divided into two categories: short term and medium long term.

In the short term, due to the recent acceleration of the number of new shares and the expectation that the super market blue chip "China Nuclear Power" will soon be on the market, we predict that there may be a marginal disturbance in the short term capital market. The blue chip market is still in the middle of 5.

From the medium to long term trend, we believe that the liquidity will remain very wide. It can be predicted that in the next few years, our country will still be in the downward path of social financing costs, and the rate reduction can still be expected. Secondly, the reconfiguration of residents' assets makes the trend of large capital moving from banks to financial products to equity assets will not change. Moreover, the management of our country will actively introduce "live water", including the anticipated events of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong and A share in the MSCI index.

Prosperity becomes a medium and long term environment.

Therefore, we have a positive view of the long-term trend in the A-share market. A

Under the circumstances of no improvement in the economic situation,

This is the most important driving factor in the current market, and has become the focus of attention and comment from all sides of the market.

However, from the policy path of accelerating the approval and issuance of new shares, loosening the property market policy and upgrading the supervision of leveraged funds, we can see that the judgment of regulators is that the current market liquidity is excessive, and the funds are diverted to all channels.

Therefore, there is no need to worry about the factors such as cash withdrawal and so on, and pay more attention to where the balance of supply and demand of funds may be.

With the introduction of various policies in recent years, stock market volume has begun to shrink, and the gap between supply and demand has shrunk.

That is, the money driven market will continue, but the upward trend of the index will slow down.

From the point of view of theme investment, we are more optimistic about the upgrading of China's economic growth engine by state-owned enterprises reform and industry 4.

We offer three suggestions to investors.

First of all, investors need to reduce the expected return on investment.

As investors expect more and more fulfilling expectations of corporate optimism, market volatility will intensify in the future, and it is unrealistic to expect to quickly replicate market trends and gains in the past. Secondly, leverage reasonably.

Financing and stock trading is a double-edged sword, which will magnify the return and loss of investment at the same time. Finally, it is appropriate to diversify investment and portfolio investment.

On the one hand, it can hedge the fluctuation caused by individual stock events. On the other hand, it can also reduce the anxiety of earning unprofitable index to a certain extent, and it is often this kind of psychology that encourages individual investors to over deal.