PTA Futures Mostly Show Long-Term Discount Pattern.

For a long time, with the continuous release of new capacity and other factors, PTA futures mostly show long-term discount pattern. According to the reporter, since the beginning of last December, PTA futures began to shift from the premium structure to the upgrading structure. Under the background of continuous sharp rise in futures, the current arbitrage window opened, and warehouse receipts began to flow into the futures delivery warehouse.

The rise of PTA futures rose in December last year. At that time, the demand for downstream polyester and terminal spinning and weaving was in the off-season, and the maintenance period of the mainstream PTA factory was relatively short, which led to the accumulation of up to 2 million 500 thousand tons of inventory in the first quarter of PTA, and the spot price was therefore under pressure. At the same time, futures prices are facing the bottom of the cost side of crude oil prices rebound, as well as loose monetary policy, PTA historical low price of hot money, relatively strong.

The short-term overfall behavior caused by the cost side makes the market relatively optimistic about the trend of oil prices and chemical products in the later period, and also directly leads to the transformation of the market structure. Zhang De, manager of XinDa futures energy and chemical industry division, told futures Daily reporters that under this background, the 1505 contract was nearly 300 yuan / ton more than the spot price of PTA.

Futures lift has played a positive role in relieving spot pressure. Under the structure of futures rising water, market demand for arbitrage is also expanding rapidly.

"At that time, the total stock of PTA society once reached 2 million 500 thousand tons, while the PTA current price difference maintained for 200 yuan / ton for a long time, which made PTA production enterprises, traders and downstream polyester enterprises regard the PTA futures market as an ideal place of entry for PTA sources." Soochow futures analyst Wang Guangqian said that under this background, PTA production enterprises to stabilize production, began to lock the processing profit by selling goods to PTA futures contract in the past 1505 months, traders also through the current arbitrage operation to make large trade volume and earn a stable basis, the downstream polyester enterprises in the Spring Festival parking inspection background under the background of the excess contract goods to the futures market to do inventory management. The futures market suddenly became the most ideal risk management tool for the entire PTA industry, and its functions of reservoir and pressure reducing valve were most incisive.

In the view of market participants, futures are the most direct cause of the large volume of warehouse receipts than spot rising water, while the rising water of the far month contract is the indirect factor resulting in the large number of futures warehouse receipts. Since March, the price difference between PTA1509 and PTA1505 has been above 150 yuan / ton for a long time, and the trend has gradually expanded. When the contract was close to delivery in May, the monthly contract premium reached 194 yuan / ton.

"Larger contract spread space provides enterprises with better participation and positive delivery of risk free arbitrage opportunities. Many companies choose to buy futures in May when they have the appropriate price differentials, and finally buy the May contract and sell the September contract in September. After deducting all the transaction costs, the earnings are still considerable. Jinyou futures analyst Wei Lin said.

For some market participants, for the domestic market Excess production capacity Of PTA For manufacturers, the high rise water structure in the first half of the year undoubtedly provides the opportunity to "pick up money", that is, selling warehouse futures to sell futures is more advantageous than selling cash. From the futures Daily reporter's investigation, we can see that Hengli and hang Bang's existing delivery banks are basically in a full warehouse state. This shows that enterprises and traders are taking the opportunity to maximize arbitrage.

It is worth noting that the current PTA Market Investor The structure has changed a lot. In addition to businesses and traders, some investment companies and Risk Management Inc will actively join the arbitrage if they see the right opportunities.

"Because of the increasing capacity of PTA market, different investors choose their own directions from different angles, there are many institutional investors with PTA crude oil, and the productive enterprises and traders who are making the current arbitrage, the rich investor structure has greatly improved the effectiveness of PTA futures prices." Yongan futures analyst Wang Yuanyuan said, "before the contract expires, the current price deviates from the situation is actually normal. If the price is consistent, what is the futures market? The delivery system and the wind control system of PTA futures effectively guarantee the convergence of futures and spot prices at maturity.

In Wang Guangqian's view, whether or not the PTA forward discount structure in previous years, or the long-term structure of PTA in the near future and in the future, is the inevitable outcome of the development of PTA industry to a specific stage. However, with the approaching date of futures delivery, PTA fitting is also the trend.