PTA Repair Device Restart Supply Gradually Relaxed

In the first ten days of this month, Yisheng Hainan's 2 million ton PTA temporary shutdown inspection had a great boost to the market, but the device had been driven ahead of schedule last week. The Ningbo 1 million 200 thousand ton PTA device has also been restarted. The market rumors that the 4 million 500 thousand ton PTA device of Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company will be restarted in July, and it is likely to see 1 million 500 thousand tons of production capacity in mid July. Therefore, the supply pressure of PTA will gradually increase in July.

from Demand side Judging from the recent downturn in polyester production and marketing, inventory is at the median level of 18 days, and some production losses range from 400 to 500 yuan / ton. It is estimated that in the traditional off-season market environment in the lower reaches of July, the polyester link operating rate still has a certain decline. The supply is increasing. demand Under the background of weakness, the accumulation process of PTA market will accelerate in July.

International oil prices have been oscillating for 7 weeks, facing short-term direction. Judging from the actual operation, the trend of the US oil trend is stronger than that of Brent crude oil, the main reason is the seasonal demand season is coming. Inventory level Continuous decline, while Brent crude oil is facing pressure from the Saudi Arabia led OPEC countries to increase production.

In the late stage, the six party nuclear talks in Iran continue, and the final agreement may still be reached before the end of June. Iran's crude oil supply is expected to increase; the supply of crude oil in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other countries within OPEC is also in the growth trend; the US crude oil output is also a new high. Therefore, on the basis of supply and demand fundamentals, the current international crude oil market supply is still sufficient, and the possibility of oil price rise is not very large. Instead, after the end of the seasonal demand season, the US crude oil inventories are easy to form a cumulative situation again, when oil prices are facing downward pressure.

In the upstream PX and Yisheng Hainan PTA device accident repair drive, PTA futures 1509 contract quickly separated from the 5000 point integer gate oscillation higher, however, with the good digestion, the price hit high, and again test the 5000 point integer support.

The recent price of PX is stronger than that of crude oil and PTA futures. As of Tuesday, the price of naphtha was raised to $72 / ton as close to $938.5 / ton as of Tuesday. From the actual situation, Yisheng recently bought a large number of July PX cargo on the outside market, which indicates that the 1 million 600 thousand tons PX device set up in the upstream supporting enterprises of Sinopec is less likely to be opened in July. However, the current PX profit has attracted Samsung's Total 1 million tonnes PX device to be postponed to October for parking inspection. That is to say, even if CICC does not drive, the supply of PX is still ample and the price is rising. Once the device is opened, it will produce substantial pressure on the market. Therefore, it is more likely that PX will maintain weak oscillations later.