Greek Debt Drama Affects The Entire Financial Market.

Greece worsens and disturb the market. The euro is not going up.

This time around the world

Turmoil, accompanied by Greek farce deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, which makes the global risk aversion rapid rise, under this influence, the global stock market fell, the low grade bond yields soaring, hedge gold prices were also supported and rise.

However, the euro, which is troubled by Greece's debt worries, is not weakening because of Greece's risk aversion. Instead, it has to bottom up and rise at last. What information does it imply behind?

On the specific market trend, the euro rose to 1.12 on the four trading day against the US dollar (1.1205, -0.0025, -0.22%), which completely recovered the sharp gap gap caused by the Greek debt crisis in the early morning. The US dollar index (95.0938, 0.1348, 0.14%) weakened and the US economic data showed less than expected; the spot gold price rose.

Anxiety has hit the global stock market, increasing the attractiveness of the risk of gold prices; oil prices hit a three week low, which was depressed by the worsening Greek crisis and the market was concerned about the situation in Iran.

The euro rose to a four trading day high of 1.12 against the US dollar, completely recovering the sharp gap in early trading due to the Greek debt crisis.

The euro rose against the US dollar mainly because the euro was absorbed as a financing currency at the height of risk aversion, and the daily intervention of the Swiss central bank also supported the euro; there were still some optimism in the market before the Greek referendum.

At the same time, the poor performance of US housing sales figures released at the end of the night and the decline of the US dollar also constituted a certain support for the euro.

First, the euro is absorbed by the market as a financing currency, which is an important factor in supporting the euro's rise.

Investors pfer funds from the stock market and other risk markets to the euro.

Ian Stannard, head of European exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley in London, said: "the impact of the Greek crisis on foreign exchange markets is not as obvious as other markets, and the euro has played a role as a financing currency.

Only when investors completely withdraw funds from Europe, will the Greek crisis's impact on the euro be deeply felt.

Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at the Holland Cooperation Bank, said that worries about the Greek situation reduced the attractiveness of the euro as a financing currency for arbitrage pactions, thereby boosting the euro.

In arbitrage pactions, investors borrow euros in less volatile markets, then sell and buy higher yield currencies.

Secondly, the Swiss central bank buys the Swiss Franc through buying euros to intervene in the market, and it also supports the euro.

Jordan, the governor of the Swiss central bank, said that the central bank had intervened in the foreign exchange market to suppress the exchange rate of the Swiss franc.

Jordan said last week that the Swiss Franc was overvalued, and that a Greek default could trigger a large amount of hedge funds to buy the Swiss franc.

Jordan said the central bank intervened in very difficult circumstances, and said no one knew that the Greek debt crisis would lead to any direction.

Neil Mellor, a foreign exchange strategist at Mellon bank in New York, said: "the Swiss authorities hope that the euro will return to 1.30 against the Swiss Franc (1.0381, -0.0006, -0.06%), not to mention the current price, not to mention the level of 1.20."

Finally, some people in the market remain relatively optimistic before Greece's referendum.

In the European market, EU executive director Moss said he may still reach an agreement with Greece.

It is also reported that the European Union has extended the guarantee scheme for the Greek banking industry, which will continue until December 31st.

BMO Capital Markets Stephen Gallo, head of European foreign exchange strategy in London, said, "in view of the fact that

There is still a week to go, whether the risk of Greece's retreat from Europe to the US dollar at the beginning of Asia will be realistic. There is still uncertainty. The spread is obviously positive, but it seems to be limited at the moment. "

Sue Trinh, senior foreign currency analyst at RBC Capital Markets said.

"It seems that after the initial concussion, the market has somewhat stabilized. In view of the fact that the market is basically showing the state of outflow of funds, I think there has been a slight profit pressure.

The risk of news is still high, and the market's attention is on the Greek side.

However, while the euro rose against the US dollar, many analysts still saw the euro market.

Sam Lynton-Brown, a strategist at Bank of Paris, France, said that the euro's rise against the US dollar, which was driven by a displaced position, might be short-lived, and investors with euro shorts also made a profit on Monday.

In a dangerous environment like today, there is the action of leveling positions.

However, the analysis of positions shows that foreign exchange investors hold fewer Euro positions than before, so any move to a flat position may not be so positive and not as intense as before.

Brooks, chief currency strategist at Goldman Sachs, believes that the Greek referendum will lead to a repeat of the euro's collapse.

He pointed out that in 2011, Greece had proposed a referendum on debt restructuring, and the euro therefore plunged more than 10% and doubled its market position in three months; and this referendum is different. Qi Plath appealed to vote against the negative pressure on the euro over four years ago. If the crisis escalated the euro or dropped 300 points, the European Central Bank might also expand the scale of the purchase of debt to limit the yield of European debt, which would further push the euro to parity with the US dollar.

Last weekend, Greece failed to reach an agreement with creditors to get closer to debt default. If so, it could force the country to withdraw from the euro zone.

In fact, Greece rejected European creditors' proposal, causing Greece to default on the 1 billion 600 million euro IMF expired on Tuesday.

Greek Prime Minister Tsipras announced that a referendum would be held in July 5th to allow Greek voters to decide whether or not to accept the conditions of their government's objection, which surprised European officials.

Greece also closed its banks and imposed capital controls to prevent the banking system from collapsing as investors withdrew cash.

Last Friday, data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that some investors had begun to reduce the euro's long bets even before the crisis reached the latest crisis.

In the week ending June 23rd, the euro's short positions increased from 89357 in the previous week to 99306, and the euro's clearance warehouse in the previous week was the lowest level since the end of July.

Greece's default could lead to the withdrawal of the country from the euro zone, and many investors fear it will eventually weaken the entire euro zone.

The eurozone's economic data showed weakness during the day, but these weak data did not put too much pressure on the euro.

Specific data show that the euro area economic prosperity index in June is 103.5, 103.8, and the former value is 103.8. Germany's CPI value in June was 0.3%, with a forecast value of 0.5%, and the former value was 0.7%.

The US dollar index weakened, and US economic data did not match expectations.

The US housing sales figures sluggish, which put pressure on the US dollar.

At present, the focus of the market is on the US non farm employment data to be announced on Thursday.

The sales figures signed by the US within the day were not as good as expected.

Specific data show that the United States signed in May housing sales index monthly rate of 0.9%, 1.2% is expected, the former value of 2.7%.

According to the data, the analysis pointed out that this month's housing contract sales index hit a new high since April 2006 and rose for 5 consecutive months, indicating a further recovery in the U.S. housing market; although the first quarter's cold weather suppressed the recovery of the U.S. housing market, the housing market was boosted by the tightening of the labor market, the improvement in salary growth and the improvement of the housing market; the data combined to show that the housing recovery is driving the US economic growth.

Another less influential US data showed the US June Dallas fed commercial activity index -7.0, expected to be -16, and a front value of -20.8.

With the recent uncertainty in Greece, the Fed's interest rate raising has become more elusive.

Most analysts expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September, but if Greece left the euro area, causing financial market turmoil or even global growth, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate rise may be postponed.

Hilsenrath, the Federal Reserve news agency, said that the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC could only cause the Federal Reserve to postpone raising interest rates only if the global financial market turmoil hits the US economy.

He pointed out that due to uncertainties in family and business spending, and the recent turmoil in Greece, China and Puerto Rico may lead to instability in the financial markets, the US dollar will soar and the US economy will slow down. In this case, the Fed may wait until September to raise interest rates.

Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has said that the decision to raise interest rates will depend on the improvement of the job market.

According to the survey, analysts expect the non farm employment report to be released on Thursday will show that in May, the US added 232 thousand new jobs in June, after unexpectedly adding 280 thousand jobs.

Spot gold prices rose, Greece's debt default worries hit the world.

It has increased the attractiveness of hedge gold prices.

The attractiveness of risk aversion offsets investors' unease over the longer-term outlook for the gold market.

Spot gold rose 0.4%, at $1178.90 an ounce, and 0.3% in the second quarter, a fourth quarter decline.

The price of gold rose to a high of $1186.91 in the past week.

Spot silver fell 0.6% to $15.67 an ounce.

US stocks followed the decline in global stock markets as Greece approached its debt default, while the euro rebounded against the dollar from an earlier plunge.

The dollar index fell more than 1.3% on Monday because of the rise in the euro exchange rate.

A relatively weak dollar means a reduction in the holding and paction costs of commodity futures contracts priced in US dollars, supporting the attractiveness and price of futures contracts including gold.

A Greek government official said Greece will not repay the 1 billion 600 million euro loan due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday.

In the latest market review, Julian Phillips, founder and major contributor of GoldForecaster.com, wrote that gold had not really responded to the Greek situation.

The price of gold and silver may only react after the European Union's internal events have fully played its role in the linkage between the euro exchange rate and the global market.

Julian Phillips said, "if the result of the referendum is negative, Greece wants to leave the EU, then we will see a comprehensive impact.

If Greece accepts the terms, it may also be deemed to be no longer eligible for EU membership and is forced to withdraw.

There is a 85% chance that Greece will withdraw from the eurozone. In this case, gold will feel the full impact of the development.

Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst of New Delhi trading consultancy, said that neither the euro zone nor the US would let Greece leave the euro area.

If Greece is to leave the euro, the long-term political consequences will be that Greece is closer to Russia.

NATO will never let Greece become part of any Russian led trade union.

The deepening relationship between Greece and Russia has made the western world uncomfortable.

The environment is still relatively unfavourable to the gold market. The United States is still likely to raise interest rates this year, which will increase the opportunity cost of holding interest free gold.

The world's largest gold backed ETF SPDR Gold Shares increased its gold holdings by 9.5 tonnes last week, the largest weekly increase in early February.

Oil prices hit a three week low, and the market was concerned about Iran's situation amid the worsening Greek crisis.

Crude oil futures hit a three week low on Monday, resulting in widespread disgust of risk sentiment as Greece shut down its banks and imposed capital controls. Iran looks likely to extend nuclear talks with western countries to export more Iran crude to the already oversupplied market.

Brent crude oil futures clearing price fell 1.25 U.S. dollars or about 2%, at $62.01 a barrel, the lowest in June 5th.

US crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 2.2%, at $58.33 a barrel, the lowest settlement price for June 8th.

Greece's anxieties once raised the US dollar against the euro, but then the dollar moved up and down, limiting the decline in oil prices.

Tyche Capital Advisors's Tariq Zahir said, "today's trend is all influenced by the Greek situation, and the deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear agreement is postponed for about a week tomorrow, so today is a risk averse day."

Matt Smith, head of commodities research at ClipperData, said: "the persistent uncertainty caused by Greece has caused funds to escape from the oil market, and the progress of Iran sanctions related negotiations has only further supported this trend.

The market's hatred is uncertain, and the possibility of Greece's withdrawal from the euro zone has made the market unstable.

"What happened in the euro, European stock markets and bond markets may be very important for crude oil prices," David Hufton, an analyst at PVM in London, said in a research report.

Can crude oil continue its own path? "

Greece's negotiations with its creditors worsened the crisis, and Greece closed its banks and ATM on Monday.

Analysts say Greece's financial turmoil has raised doubts about the outlook for energy demand.

Some analysts said that the Greek crisis may not be resolved before the Greek referendum decides whether to accept the rescue clause this weekend.

The market also continues to focus on the development of Iran.

Tuesday is the deadline for Iran to conclude an agreement with the western world on nuclear development projects.

If an agreement can be formed, Iran is expected to get the lifting of sanctions and export more crude oil to the global market.

This should have further pressure on the price of crude oil.

Market participants are also concerned about the US crude oil supply and demand report released last Tuesday by the American Petroleum Association (API). On Wednesday, the EIA will also issue weekly inventory data.

Despite Friday's Independence Day holiday, there are still a lot of important data coming out in the next three days, including manufacturing statistics in China, eurozone and the United States, and US employment figures in June.

Beijing time 5:11 dollar index reported 94.90/92, the euro traded against the US dollar 1.1239/41, the spot gold price quoted 1179.48 US dollars / ounce.