PTA Oversupply, Commodity Market Slashing Prices

PTA production cost is expected to decline, but consumption continues to weaken, PTA surplus situation continues.

In addition, Ningbo CICC and Xiang Lu petrochemical installations are scheduled to start in July, and the PTA delivery repository will slow down in inventory.

The author believes that the PTA futures 1509 contract will remain weak, and the crude oil price in the upstream market will probably encounter pressure levels near the 60 yuan / barrel this year, and there is no room for further rebound. Its weakness will also continue to suppress the PTA price trend.

In the near future, the systemic risk caused by the Greek debt problem spread to the commodity market. On Tuesday night, the commodity market plummeted and several commodities were down.

The biggest problem in the upstream industry is the uncertainty in the volume of crude oil exports.

In order to expand the market share before the recovery of crude oil exports in Iran, OPEC members have greatly increased their production recently.

After July 7th, the Iran nuclear talks again "increased".

Greece's debt problem is also in the "solution".

The oil market will continue to bear the pressure of uncertainty in the outcome of the negotiations.

However, no matter whether the outcome of the negotiations is reached or not, I am afraid that crude oil will not be able to find substantial support from it.

Conversely, if Greece retire from Europe and Europe and the United States lift sanctions against Iran, crude oil prices will face a sharp drop.

In addition, the pressure of crude oil supply is still very large, and US crude oil inventories have climbed again, ending the eight consecutive week of decline.

Despite the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week and the fact that the increase in imports is due to greater chance, the oversupply of the global crude oil market is still continuing, and this bad tone will be maintained over the longer term.

On the other hand, the US economic data show a good performance, showing that the overall economic situation is still improving, while the expansion of manufacturing sector and the simultaneous growth of consumption are driving the US dollar index higher.

The voices of internal hawks are getting louder and louder. Recently, a number of Fed officials have expressed their willingness to raise interest rates as soon as possible.

In addition, after the Greek debt crisis lasted for three years, especially after the fact of default in Greece, the market's risk aversion increased dramatically, and investment funds entered the US dollar market, which had adverse effects on commodity prices.

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Downstream industries,

The load continues to decline, and the stock market is still dominated in the near future.

Yisheng Dalian PTA plant began to reduce production by 20% in early July due to its production benefit, which affected PTA production capacity of 1 million 200 thousand tons, and PTA load decreased by 2.55%. Han Bang Petrochemical 600 thousand ton PTA plant in June 29th stopped temporarily due to weather reasons, and resumed on that day. Hengli petrochemical PTA plant has planned to stop and repair its products due to poor production efficiency. All the customers have been notified of contract customers, with a reduction of about 10%, and its production capacity is also expected to drop about 20%, and PTA load is reduced by 0.28%.