Two Cities Continue To Rise, Stock Index Up 2.56%

At present, the stock of "ups and down" will have a process from disorder to order, which is also a process of differentiation.

A share market overall after "frustrating", how to "encourage gas" is the biggest confusion at present.

If we want to restore the basic economic functions of the stock market, we need to get better as soon as possible.

In the afternoon, the two cities continued to go up.

By the time of press release, stock index rose 2.56%, to 3755.43 points, to 280 billion 500 million yuan; Shenzhen index increased 2.78%, reported 12768.4 points, clinched a deal of 296 billion 100 million yuan.

On the plate side, the whole line is red, software service,

Domestic software is gaining ground.

The near future

The more obvious characteristics of the "desire to fall and stop, the desire to rise and be difficult" is the dominant contraction of market volatility and trading volume.

A series of measures, such as the T+0 of margin trading and T+1, the temporary closure of securities lending business by some leading securities companies, and the suspension of some account paction functions with short tracks, indicate that the intention of maintaining stability and thinking up at the regulatory level is quite obvious and quite urgent.

After the easing of market liquidity, there are two reasons for the current stock market stability.

On the one hand, the allocation of funds in the field has not yet been completely eradicated, and the risk of all kinds of classified funds that have been leveraged and originally keen to hype up various stories have not yet been lifted. In the market as a whole, the risk of stampede is still easy to form.

Therefore, we need to get rid of this predicament at the market level. On the other hand, we have recently analyzed that the A share market is already a platform to support the scale of asset securitization of state-owned assets, a platform for financing the development of SMEs and financing activities for economic innovation, a platform for indirectly reducing the leveraging of real economy debt, a platform to promote the development of state-owned enterprises in accordance with the principles of marketization and rules of compliance with private enterprises, a platform to replace the surplus liquidity of real estate agglomeration, a bridgehead to promote the gradual opening of RMB capital account and internal and external financing, and an important tool to reduce the real interest rate drop by providing convenient financing services.

However, the suspension of IPO, the suspension of industrial capital, and the failure of a large number of foreign funds have seriously affected the realization of the economic strategic function of the stock market.

And the stock market itself has the stronger and weaker self reinforcing mechanism. Therefore, if we want to restore the basic economic function of the stock market, we need the market to get better as soon as possible.

However, the biggest dilemma of A shares is how to restore market expectations.

First, despite the stability of the capital market, the fund has so far not set a clear expectation for the market, such as whether or not the cash will be withdrawn from the market. What is the future plan? What is the purpose of the current "east to west and one stick" strategy? Is there any unified strategy and deployment in the process of maintaining specific market stability? At the same time, the security funds also put themselves in the market, all of which have the opposite view of the expected investors and are in a situation of fighting alone.

As we all know, at present, there is no shortage of funds either in the field or in the field. A large number of social surplus funds are still in the confused stage of the choice of the investment direction of large groups. However, because of the lack of explicit expectations of the funds, there is always a lack of "helpers".

Two, institutional investors have made good profits in the first half of the year. They also know that the market in the second half of the year is particularly difficult to make, so the basic strategy is mostly "making money in the first half of the year and cash in the second half of the year".

Our recent analysis shows that institutional self rescue is the driving force of rebound, but it is also the pressure of rebound. This is the reason why the previous rebound was over 4000 points, and it is also the biggest obstacle for further market.

The three is, the previous rebounding motherboard in the 4000 point line, the central card 500 in the 8500 point area after the fall, forming a new resistance area, although the lower gear is supported by the support fund, it seems that there is not much room to fall, but the rebound space is also not enough, at the same time, small and medium-sized high valuation pressure still exists.

Therefore, if there is no market expected recovery, it is still difficult for the market to break through more than 4000 points in the near future.

In short, A share market overall after "frustrating", how to "drum up" is the biggest confusion at present.

The two pullback of the market, regardless of the magnitude, has to build a necessary indicator on the bottom of the market, that is, the apparent contraction of the volume of pactions in the two cities. We expect that the volume of pactions in the two cities will shrink to about 5000-6000 billion, and the bottom of the market will be solid and reliable.

In this round of two callbacks, the volume of pactions in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities has shrunk to about 700 billion, and more importantly, the balance of the two balances has fallen to about half of the peak level of 2 trillion and 267 billion.

Therefore, the whole A stock market is still weak and volatile in the short term. The whole August has a trend of resistance to rebound.

In the process of double convergence of market volatility and trading volume, the current "ups and down"

There will be a process from disorder to order, which is also a process of differentiation.

In the market of "hacking and pulling" before, the stocks that were deeply cut down were not bad stocks. The stocks pulled up by themselves were not all good stocks, and opportunities and risks were in them.

In the specific trading behavior, we should do well the screening and trade-off between short-term risk and medium term opportunities, short-term opportunities and medium-term risks, and adopt corresponding trading strategies.