Cotton: Poor Spot Sales, Futures Under Pressure

Poor spot sales, futures pressure, CF1509 on Friday closed at 12475, a week down 160 yuan, near the delivery, difficult to market, the enthusiasm of the fund to participate in the decline, continue to withdraw, the week traded 56528 hands, 18116 hand reduction, 24% reduction, 56054 positions, 14318 hand reduction, 20% reduction.

Later will be around the spot warehouse cost fluctuations, difficult market, cautious participation.

CF1601 received 12635 yuan on Friday, 110 yuan per week, 431668 hands per week, an increase of 70438, an increase of 20%, 333670 holding hands, an increase of 36986 hands, an increase of 12%, a decrease of 1509, and a new inflow of funds.

By the end of July 31st, the top 20 seats in the position were more than 162643 hands, 15150 more than last week, 172210 hands empty, 6449 more than last week, 9567 hands short, 8701 fewer than last week, and more empty positions.

Last Tuesday, after a small rise, some of the hedging and more single profits were closed. On Friday's closing, the number of hedging units decreased by more than 1830. The total position dropped to 5571, and last week's closing position was closed at 27111.

Sales are more influential, and there are no sales or very few sets of policies.

At present, the current price difference is relatively high. With the recovery of market confidence, the current price difference has narrowed down. CF1509 and CF1601 will move closer to the spot market.

Us disk: the surrounding agricultural products plummeted, the new cotton grew well, and the US cotton pressure descended inertia. On Friday, December, the contract closed at 64.21 cents, down 54 points per week.

Supply is excessive and demand is weak. The fundamentals of cotton are still bad, but the market is against them.

The digestion has been carried out for a long time.

It is difficult to have a breakthrough. Although the technology has broken through the track, the early low and 40 weekly lines should be supported, and the return to the interval oscillation is a great probability.

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The supply and demand structure has improved, supporting the price of viscose has been warming up, and has become a "thriving" in the entire textile industry.

After a steady adjustment of 5, 6 and two months, the price of viscose staple fiber rebounded more than 5% in July.

At present, the price range of the mid-range 1.5D market is 13200-13400 yuan / ton (Cheng Dui), and the high-end 1.2D is 13500-13600 yuan / ton (Cheng Dui).

In the downturn of the entire commodity market, viscose staple fibers in the textile sector stand out. In July, they rose to the top of the textile sector in 4.60% months.

Affected by factors such as equipment maintenance season and environmental protection policy, some of the capacity constraints are limited, and the supply and demand structure of viscose is better, and price recovery is expected to continue.

Ping An Securities statistics show that last week viscose staple fiber continued to rise slightly by 50-100 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, the gradual tightening of environmental policies by the state has accelerated the withdrawal of backward production capacity, allowing production capacity to enter the contraction period.

In August 3rd, the Ministry of environmental protection proposed in the summary of environmental pollution prevention and control work in the first half of 2015 that we should thoroughly implement the "water ten item", and the water pollution control action plan has been promulgated successively in various places.

The local viscose factory, which produces a lot of waste water, has been restricted by environmental protection checks. Factories like Xinjiang, Australia, Xinjiang, Shun Quan and other factories have already stopped and rectified.

Xinjiang Manasi county set up a unified wastewater treatment plant, the recent production of viscose enterprises actively cooperate with the laying of pipelines.

In addition to clearing backward production capacity, the coming of the maintenance season will continue to boost the market.

Reporters learned that the next three Tangshan friends and Jiangxi Sai Deli and other companies plan to round inspection, the industry starts or down to less than 80%.

Under the dual influence, the supply side of the industry has entered a continuous reduction period.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, told the Shanghai Daily reporter that due to the environmental shutdown, the time needed for large-scale restart of the capacity is still needed. In addition, since 2014, the industry has basically no new capacity, and the tight supply situation is expected to continue.

This will help viscose staple fiber prices continue to rise, prices will remain strong before November.

At the same time, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has been significantly improved, and orders have also been significantly increased.

The Ping An Securities Industry Report shows that the stock of viscose staple fiber has been dropping to the extremely low level of 8 days in mid July, and the inventory in dealer trade channels is very low.

Coupled with the huge increase in domestic capacity and import volume, it is speculated that domestic demand may gradually improve in the first half of this year, and demand in the second half of this year tends to be higher than the first half.

The overall trend of the industry is also improving. Huatai Securities data show that in the first 5 months of this year, the total profit of chemical fiber manufacturing industry was 11 billion 470 million yuan, up 56.7% from the same period last year.