2015 Cotton Market Operation Outlook, Global Supply And Demand Situation Tends To Improve

August 20th, in the whole country cotton Trading market, China Agricultural Development Bank two customers and Zhengzhou On the 2015 cotton Outlook Forum jointly held by the commodity exchange, Ms Mei Yong made a prediction and analysis of the future cotton market in three aspects, namely, the smooth connection of the new and old cotton year, the supply and demand situation at home and abroad in the new year and other factors that may affect the trend.

Mei Yong has used several surveys to illustrate the overall operation of the market. She said that four factors must be considered in the smooth integration of new and old businesses: commercial inventories, industrial inventories, policy implications and psychological expectations. According to the survey, the total commodity cotton inventory in China is 1 million 420 thousand tons. Xinjiang 948 thousand tons of cotton, 97 thousand tons of real estate cotton and 375 thousand tons of imported cotton. This is the full aperture data, including the inventory of the mainland processing plant with poor spinnability. It is impossible to exclude the data that industrial enterprises have been kept in the warehouse and become unable to enter the domestic consumption in the bonded area. Therefore, the actual circulation commodity cotton is lower than the commercial inventory. The survey showed that cotton textile enterprises substantially reduced industrial inventories at the end of July, waiting for new flowers. list 。 According to the investigation, PMI index of cotton textile was displayed. Spin The economic operation went downhill after reaching its peak in April, and the current operating conditions, new orders and production indices continued to decline. From the survey of cotton purchasing price and consumption expectation of cotton enterprises, the market psychology anticipation is relatively pessimistic, the purchase price tends to be more than 5.5-6.0 yuan, but there are many high expectations of the purchase price, and the risk will increase substantially. Whether the new and old year is smoothly connected, Mei Yong put forward his own view: the spot resources are fully protected at present; the price expectation is relatively stable; the variables exist in the time of the new flower listing; Xinjiang should not grab resources in the acquisition market, the mainland purchase market must play a "seesaw war", and the game between cotton farmers and buyout Enterprises will have a potential impact on Xinjiang seed cotton purchase.

Subsequently, Mei Yong introduced the global situation of production and demand in 2015. Judging from the global cotton production and storage situation and other basic aspects, the pressure on the global cotton market in 2015 will not be greater than that in 2014. In the analysis of the United States and India market, it is concluded that the purchase of American cotton should be done as early as possible. Although there are great variables in the India market, the possibility that the price of acquisition and sale is lower than expected after the launch of new cotton is decreasing, and the negative impact is not as great as expected by the market.

In addition to supply and demand and structure, the new year's impact on the market should also be considered in terms of policy, economy and industry. The policy is mainly targeted price reform policy and quota policy; economic aspects include economic trend, RMB exchange rate and other factors; from the perspective of industry, Xinjiang textile industry, cost and income, substitute raw materials and other factors should be considered.

Finally, she concluded that the global cotton supply and demand situation in the year 2015 tended to improve, and that the international price remained stable or warmer. However, the Chinese market was still subject to the influence of the policy of cotton macro regulation and control. Under the great economic environment, the textile industry was hard to be independent; the competition between non cotton and imported yarns would not be weakened because of the narrowing of the price difference between inside and outside cotton; the price elasticity and the interval of spot prices of cotton in China would not be very large. However, she stressed that the cotton grade difference with good quality and suitable for textile needs will be enlarged. This marketization will effectively promote the overall quality of cotton in China.