Three Phase Pressure Superposition Import And Export Downturn, China's Foreign Trade Needs New Highlights

The Ministry of Commerce announced foreign trade in the first seven months of 2015. data The total value of China's imports and exports is 2 trillion and 224 billion 450 million US dollars, down 7.2% compared with the same period last year. Under the background of low international market demand, foreign trade exports need to find new bright spots.

Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said that from the whole year, the domestic and international situation facing the development of China's foreign trade can be said to be more severe and more complex than expected, and it faces many uncertainties.

Three stage pressure superposition

In August 19th, the Ministry of Commerce held a press conference to announce the basic situation of China's foreign trade in 1-7. The pressure on import and export of one of the three carriages of economic development has not been reduced. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the total value of China's imports and exports in the first seven months of 2015 was 2 trillion and 224 billion 450 million US dollars, down 7.2% from the same period last year. Among them, exports amounted to 1 trillion and 264 billion 820 million US dollars, a slight decrease of 0.8%, and imports of US $959 billion 620 million, down by 14.6%.

"From the first half of the year, the overall decline of foreign trade has slowed down, and the share of exports in the whole world trade area has not been easy." Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, told the new financial observer reporter that China's exports remained stable compared to the major export powers of the world's major powers. "We should treat the problem from the perspective of the world economic development pattern and long-term development of imports and exports, rather than focusing on short-term changes."

In fact, if we look at the situation from July alone, the situation is even more unoptimistic. In dollar terms, exports will drop by 8.3% in July, much less than expected 1.5%, the lowest since February 2014.

According to WTO statistics, exports of the US, Japan, Korea, India, South Africa and Brazil fell by 5.2%, 8.1%, 5.1%, 16%, 6.4% and 14.7% in the first half of 2015, respectively. The only bright spot in the export sector is European countries, because the sharp depreciation of the euro against the US dollar is conducive to the export of goods to non euro zone countries. In the first half of this year, German foreign trade exports hit a record high in a single month.

For China's exports, the trend of the three phase superposition is more and more obvious, which is also the main reason for the negative growth of import and export. Bai Ming introduced that the so-called three phase superposition is mainly the declining trend of the international market as well as the shifting period of China's economic growth mode and the concentrated pressure period of trade frictions. In the first half of 2015, the number of cases of trade friction encountered in China was 37, of which 6 were from the United States and 14 from Latin American countries, showing a significant increase in trade frictions, ranging from developed economies to developing economies. Although the total number of trade frictions has decreased compared with the same period last year, the long-term trend of trade frictions will not change.

On the one hand, the traditional low end of the manufacturing industry, which exports from China, is on the one hand. manufacturing industry On the other hand, the export of high-end manufacturing products has not been effectively cultivated, which has led to the fact that exports remain at a steady pace. The concentrated expression is that in the main export products, the export of mechanical and electrical products weakly keeps positive growth, and the export of labor-intensive products shows a trend of rapid decline.

In addition to the sluggish international market demand and the rising cost of domestic production factors, another factor that cannot be ignored is the fact that the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has appreciated for a long time in the first half of the year, when the currencies of Europe, Japan and other countries have depreciated sharply. This has led to the deterioration of China's terms of trade and a certain impact on exports.

Looking for new highlights

Under the background of general import and export, the emergence of some new bright spots has provided new ideas for the future development of foreign trade. It is not impossible to achieve positive growth in foreign trade throughout the year.

Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said that in the first half of 2015, China's import and export services maintained steady and rapid growth, and the total import and export volume of services (excluding government services) totaled $318 billion 800 million, an increase of 13.3% over the same period last year. Service import and export growth has been running at more than 10% in two consecutive quarters, which was not common before. This led to the total import and export volume of services accounted for 14.5% of foreign trade (imports and exports of goods and services), representing a 0.6 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

The second bright spot is the "one belt and one road" related countries showing growth. trend In 1-7 months, exports to the traditional markets, including the European Union, Japan, China and Hongkong, fell by 4.3%, 11% and 10.1% respectively, while exports to emerging markets such as Russia and Brazil fell by 36.1% and 9.6% respectively. But exports to India, Thailand and Vietnam grew by 9.8%, 16.3% and 12.5%, respectively, and 8% for ASEAN exports.

In terms of foreign investment, China's enterprises in the first 7 months were " The Belt and Road Initiative 48 countries along the line have made direct investment, and the total investment amounts to 8 billion 590 million US dollars, up 29.5% over the same period last year. The investment mainly flows to Singapore, Indonesia, Laos, Russia, Kazakhstan, Thailand and so on.

Most of the countries along the "belt and road" are emerging economies and developing countries, with a total population of about 4 billion 400 million and a total economic volume of about 21 trillion dollars, accounting for 63% and 29% of the world's total respectively.

"The import and export of foreign trade between the countries along the border account for only about 1/4 of the world total, which has a large gap relative to the proportion of the population, which means a huge growth prospect." Bai Ming believes that for the growth of trade in this region, Chinese enterprises should have a long-term sense and should not see too much growth in one place. "Investing in countries along the" belt and road "area, especially in the field of infrastructure such as energy cooperation, high-speed rail and nuclear power, requires a long time of large-scale investment. It is hard to see the effect in the short term, so it is best to consider the problem without a simple short time effect.

In fact, although the export volume was not optimistic from the first half of the year, the export situation in China has been improved in the single month of June, and the growth rate has reached the first correction in 4 months.

On the traditional trading partners, the bilateral trade between China and the European Union and Japan decreased by 6.8% and 10.6% respectively in the first seven months. Foreign investment enterprises and state owned enterprises' import and export decreased by 4.8% and 14% respectively. "Nevertheless, we expect export growth for the 2015 full year to be positive. The share of China's exports in the international market will steadily increase. The decline in imports will continue to narrow, and the quality and efficiency of foreign trade will further improve. " Shen Danyang said.