This Year, The Turnover Of Cotton Reserves Is Too Low.

August 31st, 2014

The drama of the round came to a close in silence.

As the saying goes, there must be some support for the opera, and the drama must be called. The grand scenes of the wheel and the jeered crowd of the crowd have made a huge difference.

Anyone who wanted to go out two months ago has not yet announced the policy of launch, and rumors have been flying all over the world.

All parties in the industry were unable to restrain their excitement, and launched a heated discussion on the auction price and related rules. The scene was spectacular.

When the clinker was actually auctions, everyone chose tacitly to choose silence. The atmosphere of the paction became cold and clear. Compared with the previous years, the reasons for the change were: whether or not the sentence should be put in the following words: "everyone in the world is in the right place and the world is bustling with profit."

According to statistics, from the official launch in July 10th to the end of August 31st, the total output of cotton reserves reached 63411.74 tons, of which 53682.24 tons of domestic cotton were sold.

Cotton traded 9729.5 tons.

The cumulative turnover accounted for only about 6.34% of the total output of the total output (planned output of 1 million tons), and the result was not satisfactory.

From the paction area, Shandong, Hebei and Henan rank the top three.

The storage time is 7 or 8 months. According to common sense, time selection is very scientific. At this time, lint resources are out of date. At the moment, it can increase supply and avoid new cotton in September.

You can kill two birds with one stone.

However, the actual result is unexpected.

According to rough estimates, the surplus cotton volume in the domestic market is at least 1 million 500 thousand tons at the end of June.

The national cotton market monitoring system predicts that domestic cotton consumption will reach 8 million 70 thousand tons in 2014, and the monthly average sales volume is only about 600000 tons. In the 7 and 8 months, China is in the off-season cotton production, and the market demand is limited.

Precisely speaking, at that time there was no shortage of cotton in the country, but a lack of high-quality cotton to meet the requirements of textile enterprises.

Especially with the continuous development of China's textile technology, the proportion of high-end products is bigger and bigger, and the demand for high-quality lint is also more eager.

The high price of rotation is also an important reason for the low turnover of cotton reserves.

The national development and Reform Commission announced that in 2011, the bid price of domestic cotton (bid standard 3128B, the same below) was 13200 yuan / ton, and the bid price of domestic cotton in 2012 was 14200 yuan / ton, and the bid price of imported cotton in 2012 was 15500 yuan / ton.

Due to the storage time is too long, the reserve cotton wheel will also conduct two public inspection before going out, and the auction price will also be reduced to varying degrees.

According to the final paction results, the main price of domestic cotton in 2011 is between 11500-12500, the lowest paction price is 10780 yuan / ton, while the imported cotton is mainly cotton and the mainstream price is 14000-15000, the highest price is 15780 yuan / ton.

There is an old saying in the textile industry: "there is no best cotton, only the most suitable cotton."

Most textile business representatives believe that the price of the round out is basically the same as the spot price of the market. However, due to the long storage time of the storage cotton, there is a certain gap between the performance of some indexes and the spot price, such as color and weight. If the freight and related auction fees are added, the actual purchase price is not low.

Therefore, the willingness of textile companies to participate in bidding is not strong.

According to the official statement, the price of the round is drawn up on the basis of no pressure on the market. If we do not suppress the market, why should we turn out the reserve cotton in the case that the market is not short of cotton? The answer can only be going to stock.

It is understood that the annual storage cost of about 10000000 tons of cotton reserves is as high as several billion, and the inventory structure is unreasonable, all concentrated in the period from 2011 to 2013.

Therefore, in order to adjust the inventory structure, reduce the financial burden and reduce the size of the reserve, it will undoubtedly become a good medicine for its quick inventory.

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This round of turnover and cotton quality also have a great relationship.

From the data of the paction, cotton turnover reached 52694 tons in 2011, accounting for 15.97% of the total planned resources (15.97% tons of domestic cotton production plan in 2011), and cotton turnover reached 987 tons in 2012, accounting for 0.21% of the total output (2012 domestic cotton production plan 470 thousand tons).

In the first half of August, in the nationwide textile industry research activities organized by the organization, it was learned that most textile enterprises believed that the quality of cotton was relatively guaranteed in 2011, and that they could choose to auction. The quality of cotton from 2012 to 2013 was not ideal, unless the price had a larger decline, otherwise it would not risk taking part in the auction.

This is the market, not the will of any person as a shift, only with supply and demand.

A well-known personage in the futures market also said that the results of the cotton reserve deal were disappointing. In fact, it was not much related to quality and price. The key point is that there are too many cotton resources now, and the enterprises have great choice. If the market does not have cotton, then the cotton with inferior quality will also be good.

Besides the low quality and high price of cotton, the low turnover of reserve cotton has a certain relationship with the difficulties of textile enterprises in recent years, especially in the cash flow of enterprises.

At present, domestic cotton is basically cash pactions, and downstream sales of yarn products have a certain account period, which has increased pressure on the cash flow of textile enterprises.

Most textile enterprises clearly stated that participating in the auction of cotton reserves should not only pay a certain margin, but also auction cotton weight at least more than 200 tons. Therefore, for most small and medium-sized enterprises, it is very difficult to produce such a cash, even if there is a fancy cotton, there is no money to participate in the auction.

It is understood that in view of the huge stockpile of cotton reserves and market demand, it is very likely that the country will become normal in the future.

As a downstream cotton enterprise, we should carefully consider how to adapt to this situation as soon as possible, make good use of reserve cotton wheels, choose suitable resources for enterprises, control production costs, and play a role of icing on the cake for enterprise management.

As a government, in view of the low turnover of the cotton reserves, we should seriously consider how to formulate an effective round out policy in the shortest possible time, which is conducive to the healthy development of the cotton industry and the adjustment of cotton structure, inventory and financial burden.

This not only tests the wisdom of the decision-making of the government departments, but also makes us look forward to the related policies of cotton reserves in 2015.