The Stability Of The RMB Exchange Rate Is Most Important.

If the RMB depreciated to 8, the impact and impact on the global market will be as great as that for China.

Just like this, the depreciation of RMB in China's "new exchange reform" will only cause 3% of the global market's chain reaction, and its impact and impact will be several times as much as it can be magnified to infinity.

Under such circumstances, the global market is bound to be everywhere, and the global economy has entered a full-scale recession.

The possible outcome is even more serious than the outbreak of the US financial crisis in 2008.

Therefore, in view of the current financial market situation, the stability of the RMB exchange rate is most important. Only when the RMB exchange rate is stable and the Chinese economy is brought out of the current difficulties, will the RMB exchange rate change more flexibly, which is the best choice.

If the RMB depreciated to 8, what will happen in the world? This is a question raised by the recent research report of the international investment bank, Merrill Lynch.

Their answer is that if the RMB depreciated by 10%, it would help China increase 10% of its exports. If the RMB depreciated to 8, that is to say, the yuan would depreciate by 25%, then China's exports could increase by 25%, while the price of international goods would have to fall 25%.

If this happens, it will lead to chaos in the global market and even impact on the global banking system, triggering the global financial crisis.

In the eyes of Merrill Lynch, the central bank's sharp depreciation of the renminbi has ignited the Asian Currency's competitive devaluation sensitive zone, coupled with poor economic data, especially the low PMI of manufacturing industry, which has triggered global investors' sell-off of risky assets and triggered a global stock market crash.

Although the Central Bank of China is doing everything in its power to defend the renminbi

At the expense of large amounts of foreign exchange reserves, but this led to tight liquidity in China and monetary policy had to be relaxed.

But in the end, this is not a permanent solution.

Finally, the renminbi may experience a dramatic devaluation.

This drama may be why the Bank of America and Merrill Lynch assumed that the value of the renminbi would depreciate to 8 and what would happen in the global market.

In fact, if the RMB depreciated to 8, it would return to the level of RMB exchange rate reform in 2005 (when the US dollar was converted to RMB eight point one one), which is as large as the impact of RMB appreciation on the global economy and China's economy since 2005. This has contributed to the global economic prosperity.

However, the continued appreciation of RMB has gone through a long process of ten years, and its impact and impact can only happen gradually.

If the RMB suddenly depreciated from six point four to eight, its impact on China and the world would be unpredictable and immense.

If the RMB depreciates to 8, it is estimated that the real estate business will bear the burden of 275 billion US dollars, which is the first to bear the brunt of the $about 1100000000000 liabilities of the real estate enterprises.

This burden, in the real estate market boom, real estate profits to dozens of, then it should not be much, but in the current real estate market housing serious.

When the housing price is too high and the real estate enterprises shrink in an all-round way, it is estimated that most real estate enterprises are unbearable.

In this case, a large number of real estate enterprises bankruptcy is inevitable.

As an asset intensive industry, the collapse of real estate enterprises will immediately blow up the risks of domestic banks, which will lead to domestic banking crises.

At this time, government rescue can not be saved.

If

Devaluation to 8, not only the real estate enterprises will bear the brunt, but also the risk will soon spread to the real estate market.

Because the housing market in China is basically a market dominated by investment. When the RMB depreciates to 8, it means that the wealth of RMB denominated housing market has depreciated by 25%.

If the assets of the Renminbi denominated housing market depreciate rapidly, it will not only cause a large number of housing investors to flock out of the housing market, but also cause the sudden disappearance of the housing market demand, as no investor will have any further housing assets that will be seriously devalued.

In this case, the real estate bubble that has lasted for more than a decade may explode.

The problems caused by the "real estate" in the past ten years will be exposed after the real estate bubble burst.