Global Trade Is In The Main Direction Of Trade Slowdown.

Recently, the Holland economic policy analysis department released a report showing that the world

The total fell two in the 0.5% quarter, the biggest decline since 2009.

Koopman, chief economist of WTO, pointed out that there is no indication that the trend of globalization has been reversed.

What should China do?

The strategy of "one belt and one road" is being developed, and the development of trade and investment cooperation with the countries along the "one belt and one road" is an effective way for China to find new export markets and cope with the global trade downturn.

The strategy of "one belt and one road" is being implemented in China, which has already achieved initial success in promoting foreign trade.

In summing up the foreign trade situation in the first half of the year, Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, emphasized that China's trade with the countries along the belt and road grew faster in the first half of the year.

As one of the important engines of global economic growth, the total volume of Global trade shrank in 2015.

The world trade monitoring report released by the CPB points out that the volume of Global trade is shrinking at the fastest pace in 2009 in the first half of 2015.

In the second quarter of 2015, Global trade volume decreased by 0.5%, up 1.1% from the same period last year.

CPB also revised Global trade figures for the first quarter to a 1.5% decline.

Analysis shows that this is mostly caused by the European economic recovery stagnation and the slowdown in China's economy.

China's economy has been pformed from export led to domestic demand, and the US has gradually become a net energy exporter, which has a structural impact on world trade.

In the global environment of shrinking trade, China's foreign trade also declined in 2015.

According to the Ministry of commerce data, in 2015 1-7, China's import and export value was 2 trillion and 224 billion 450 million US dollars, down 7.2% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports amounted to 1 trillion and 264 billion 820 million US dollars, a slight decrease of 0.8%, and imports of US $959 billion 620 million, down by 14.6%.

The Ministry of commerce is not optimistic about the foreign trade situation this year.

In September last year, WTO predicted that global trade grew by 4% this year. After the two quarter, in April, WTO revised down to 3.3%.

But in the past 7 months, especially in the first half of the year, the growth rate of Global trade is likely to be negative this year.

The first 7 months from WTO statistics and published data, whether the major developed economies or emerging economies, exports are generally negative growth.

For example, in the US, export growth in the first half is -5.2%, the EU is -15.6% (1-5 months), Japan -8.1%, Korea -5.1%, Hongkong -2.8%, India -16%, South Africa -6.4%, Brazil -14.7%.

However, the strategy of "one belt and one road" is being implemented by China, which has already achieved initial success in promoting foreign trade.

In summing up the foreign trade situation in the first half of the year, Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, emphasized that China's trade with the countries along the belt and road grew faster in the first half of the year.

The source of foreign trade atrophy: weak demand, structural imbalance

"Global trade has shrunk largely because EU, BRICs (China, Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa) and other major trade demand countries like Japan, Canada and Australia are now facing the pressure of slowing economic growth, leading to a decline in foreign trade demand, which has led directly to the shrinking global trade volume.

The United States occupies an important position in Global trade, but the current economic recovery in the US is mainly stimulated by the recovery of domestic demand, not yet a comprehensive growth in foreign trade demand, and can not alleviate the decline in Global trade demand.

Chen Bo, deputy director of the world economic and Trade Department of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, read the twenty-first Century economic report.

Sun Lijian, vice president of the school of economics, Fudan University, also believes that in the globalized trade pattern formed before 2008, the developed countries in Europe and the United States as the main consumer market are the demand side of Global trade; but after the financial crisis, the consumption of developed countries in Europe and the United States has not recovered to the pre crisis level, and the current emerging economies lack the ability to stimulate the growth of the consumer market, which leads to a large amount of capital flowing in the global financial market, and has not entered the commodity trade consumer market.

From the perspective of industrial restructuring, Sun Lijian believes that after the 2008 financial crisis, low inflation and steady growth of the global economy, a stable industrial chain was formed, but it also resulted in overcapacity.

The adjustment of the global industrial value chain is still in the process, and there is a general lack of new products in the market to stimulate new consumption demand.

Global shipping market downturn

The global shipping industry is the first to be affected by the shrinking global trade.

As a major indicator of the prosperity of the global shipping industry, the Baltic dry freight index of the Baltic Sea Trade and shipping exchange is still hovering at the bottom of about 900 points, far apart from the high level near 12000 points before the financial crisis in 2008, less than 1/10 of the peak period.

August should be the period of Global trade growth. But in the second week of August, the rate of container shipping from Asia to Europe unexpectedly dropped by 20%.

Shanghai's export container freight index also showed that Shanghai's export to Nordic freight index fell 23% in five trading days.

According to the British telegraph, container throughput in Hamburg Port fell 6.8% in the first half of this year, with trade volume falling by 10.9% and trade volume with Russia by 36%, indicating that the collapse of the rouble and the intensification of the Russian economic recession forced Russian consumers to substantially reduce purchases of imported cars and other goods.

Recent data from Container Trades Statistics also showed that global shipping volume fell 3.1% in June compared with the same period last year.

This is somewhat unexpected, because 6 to August is usually the peak season for shipping.

As the world's second largest entrepot, Singapore's container throughput dropped by 13.3% in July, the worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis.

Nomura data showed that the total volume of shipping in all major ports in East Asia increased to 0.6% in July, and the third quarter was also not optimistic.

The way to deal with it: Transformation of economic structure and exploration of "one belt and one road" new market

Chen Bo believes that the global trade contraction has the biggest impact on the two economies.

The first is resource-based economies, such as Russia, Australia and Canada, which are most severely hit by resource exporting countries.

As a downstream industry in resource industries, the economies that rely on manufacturing and export are second types of economies vulnerable to shocks.

Some big manufacturing countries including China are facing the problem of overcapacity, especially in clothing, shoes and hats and steel products.

Chen Bo said that China must carry out the pformation and upgrading of its economic structure in order to cope with the negative effects brought by the global trade downturn. "It is easy for us to release excess capacity, but more importantly, we need to find new competitiveness and new markets, which has created new challenges for us.

The conversion process will be painful, but it has to be done. "

It is also an effective way for China to find new export markets and cope with global trade downturn by continuing to push forward the strategy of "one belt and one road" and developing trade and investment cooperation with the countries along the "one belt and one road".

China

Spokesman Shen Danyang said: from the first half of the year and the trend of the second half of the year, the domestic and international situation of China's foreign trade development can be said to be more severe, more complicated and more uncertain than expected.

This shows that the global economic recovery is much worse than expected, and external demand is still seriously insufficient.

Therefore, we are not optimistic about the export for the whole year.

Taking into account the relatively high base period and abnormal growth in some months during the second half of last year, we did not rule out the negative growth of exports in the next few months. Nevertheless, we expect that exports will still have positive growth throughout the year.

China's exports will continue to rise steadily in the international market share. The decline in imports will continue to narrow, and the quality and efficiency of foreign trade will further improve.