Do You Know What Li Keqiang Said In The Davos Forum?

Davos holds a forum every year in China. Li Keqiang will give lectures every year. This year, Davos is in Dalian, Li Keqiang is going to Dalian as usual. Davos is the world economic forum. Li Keqiang is making a special speech in the face of a new financial turmoil in the world.

The protracted war, which is judged by Mao Zedong during the war of resistance against Japan, is aimed at the theory of quick victory and collapse. In the face of economic adjustment and stock market adjustment, investors may wish to repeat the famous discourse of chairman Mao Zedong that year, and perhaps we can find inspiration from it.

In the first word, China is not the source of the world's economic risk, but one of the impetus for the growth of the world economy.

Why does Li Keqiang say this? Because many public opinion thinks that the early Chinese central bank's currency derogatory will cause a currency war. The Chinese Premier's answer is "lying and shooting." there is no foundation for sustained depreciation of the RMB. This is a reassurance to the international community, especially the developing countries, to relieve everyone's worries.

In the meantime, Li Keqiang specifically responded to the Chinese government's bailout behavior. Li Keqiang admitted that there was an abnormal fluctuation in the Chinese stock market in June and July. The measures concerned were taken to stabilize the market in order to prevent the spread of risk. Now we can say that we have prevented systemic financial risks.

The topic of saving the market is a dilemma for the prime minister. The turmoil in China's stock market, especially after August, has great impact on Wall Street. The stock index futures in the United States have been blown off before opening. The Dow has fluctuated more than 1000 points in the intraday market. Wall Street's fluctuation has the Fed's interest rate increase factor, but there are also the impact of A share's record sharp drop.

If the Chinese government does not act, the public opinion will say that it is not responsible. If the Chinese government intervenes, the public opinion will say that it is not safe to disrupt the market rules. Therefore, Li Keqiang responded by borrowing from Davos to show that the future development will be marketization and legalization, so as to dispel the doubts of the outside world. China's GDP remains at 7%, and its contribution to the world economy is 30%. More importantly, China has officially become a net exporter of capital.

In the second sentence, the Chinese economy will not have a hard landing.

The latest data show that CPI is already 2%, hitting a new high in the year, but PPI is negative 5.9%. Compared with the same period last year, China's deflation is more dangerous than inflation. PMI's purchasing managers' index is also low, indicating that we are relatively pessimistic.

Li Keqiang's judgment is "shape fluctuation, and the trend is still good". The former is suffering from labor pains, repetition and volatility because the Chinese economy is in the pition stage of new and old energy conversion. The latter says that consumption accounts for over 60% of GDP and the proportion of service industry is close to 50%.

The growth rate is over 10%, the key is that the target of employment population exceeds expectations. Therefore, the overall operation of China's economy will not be hard landing in a reasonable range, and the Chinese government should have many means to deal with it.

The third sentence is to actively reform and open up to find the source of power.

The economy is not limited, the currency is not loose, the stock market is neither bull nor bear, and reform is not going forward. This is a popular saying by many people.

He said that the pace of reform in China's financial sector is bigger than we think. The next step is to continue to open private capital, actively develop private banks, financing guarantees and financial leasing, and steadily realize convertibility under capital account. It will also allow foreign central bank institutions to enter the interbank foreign exchange market directly. At the end of the year, the RMB cross-border payment system will be built. In structural reform, Li has raised the "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" to the height of development momentum. "Two innovations" is exactly what he put forward in his speech at the Davos Forum last year, and it is expected that the relatively encouraging tax policy will continue to come out.

The adjustment of growth rate will last for a long time. This is a difficult question to answer. In today's global economic integration, the interaction between various economies is objective, and it is hard to have a unique pattern. If the Fed decides to raise interest rates, then the whole world will face new uncertainties. The US dollar will come back to the us from emerging countries, the US dollar will become stronger, commodity futures prices will go down again, and the currencies will have devaluation pressures. These effects are inevitable.

The same is true for the stock market. If the Dow goes down, the A shares will naturally become worse and worse. The adjustment of space and time will also lengthen. So it is no wonder that many investors can not sleep at night. Why? Because it depends on the trend of the Dow, the high opening is steadfast, and the low opening is uneasy. The Sino US stock market interaction is very subtle.