Guo Shiliang: Sharp Increase In Net Stocks

Generally speaking, the net share refers to the market price of the stock per share below its net asset price per share.

However, in practice, market investors are accustomed to calling such stocks "broken net shares".

In fact, since June 15th this year, the A share market has experienced a series of consecutive rounds of plunging market.

Among them, in the first round of the market, the biggest drop in the market more than 35%, and this round of plunging market, also a profound threat to the survival of high leveraged funds, such as out of the field.

As for the second round of the sharp fall, the largest cumulative decline in the market was also up to 28% during the period. However, the sharp fall in the market has gradually affected the risk of stock liquidation of the two securities companies and some listed companies.

Entering the September, the performance of the A share market has not calmed down.

In the last two trading days, the A share market has again opened a new round of irrational decline.

Looking at the recent two trading day market data, although the market index fell less than 10%, but the general stock fell more than 20%.

At the same time, as the market continues to be irrational, there has been a sharp increase in the number of shares broken.

Up to now, there are 50 broken net shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities, which have increased significantly compared with the previous days.

It includes Anshan Iron and Steel Group, Nanshan aluminum and Xinsteel stock.

In addition, under the current market environment, the number of shares with dynamic P / E below 10 times also continues to show a substantial increase.

This shows that in a weak market environment, the market's ability to kill and fall is quite amazing.

However, in the light of past rules, when the number of net stocks in the market has increased sharply, it often indicates that the bottom of the market will soon be coming.

Can this rule be verified in the current market environment?

With the introduction of the Chinese style fusing mechanism, it actually changed the traditional "play" of the market.

It should be noted that in the process of irrational market decline, if the market continues to use the original trading system, that is, to maintain the price limit system and the T+1 trading system unchanged, the introduction of the fusing mechanism will be exploited by empty capital.

It can be expected that, when the market can not get a quick release of kinetic energy, it will also reduce the paction cost of short selling and even extend the market bottom.

As for ordinary retail investors, they will also expand the risk of their own holdings due to the asymmetry of the trading system.

Therefore, the author believes that under the current environment of uncertain market factors, even if the number of net stocks has been greatly increased, it does not mean that the market will soon usher in the inflection point of importance.

Perhaps for the medium and long term funds, some of the undervalued varieties in the market are basically in line with their investment needs, and at this point, they can adopt a strategy of gradual layout.

However, in addition to those investment varieties, there is still no way to return to the value of stocks that are seriously overestimated in the current market.

Perhaps, for those stocks with high valuations in the early stage, they began to enter the long bear road.

Among them, in 2008, when the market moved to the area near the 1664 low point, there were as many as 214 stocks in the market.

However, take the market data corresponding to the most recent important bottom as an example, that is, at the end of June 2013, the number of shares in the market was also 161.

Obviously, compared with the number of shares broken at that time, at present

There is still a certain distance between the 50 stocks.

Perhaps, when the number of broken stocks exceeds 100, the signal at the bottom of the market will be even more significant.

At the same time, it is worth mentioning that it corresponds to the previous important bottoms.

In contrast, the environment of the A share market has also undergone significant changes.

Among them, went through the proactive and vigorous.

After that, the market is facing unprecedented pressure of "deleveraging".

However, under the premise of "deleveraging" in the market, it has gradually led to the two liquidation of securities companies and the risk of stock holding of listed companies.

As a result, it also directly increased the pressure on the market to make up the deposit.

If the listed companies and related investors fail to pay the deposit in time, they will trigger a real risk of liquidation. At that time, the impact on these interests is also fatal.

In addition, with the introduction of new market regulations, the "gameplay" of the future market will also change, and then it will make a new round of impact on the market.

Among them, take recent attention to the fusing mechanism as an example, in accordance with the relevant rules, in the future or will take the time to determine the exponential melting time.

In other words, when the market triggers a threshold of 5%, the market will suspend trading for 30 minutes, and if the market triggers 5% of fusing threshold and triggers 7% of the fuse threshold at any time during the trading hours of 14:30 and later, the market will suspend trading until the end of the day.