PTA Spot Supply Shortage Rising, Stamina Insufficient

Although the PTA production enterprises have been shut down for a long time in recent years, considering the weakness of crude oil and the lower order, the rise in the PTA price period may show a lack of stamina.

In particular, with the increase in the PTA price, the profits of the production enterprises will rebound once the profits of the production enterprises will be resumed.

Therefore, PTA's rally is highly limited and it is difficult to break through the 60 day moving average effectively.

In fact, the PTA price rise is similar to that in the first half of 2014. The price of PTA is too low, and the enterprises are intolerable. The price limit measures are adopted to push up the PTA price.

Although limited production and insurance measures can support PTA price in a short time, it can not change the running trend of PTA price.

The reverse of PTA price trend still needs PTA production enterprises to eliminate production capacity, downstream demand recovery and cost rise.

But at present, these three aspects have not improved significantly.

First, despite the collapse of the Far East Petrochemical Company, the PTA overcapacity pattern has not been fundamentally improved. Secondly, the downstream demand of the PTA is difficult to achieve better because of the slowdown in domestic economic growth. Finally, OPEC and Russia still have not reached an agreement on the reduction of crude oil production, and the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil is still continuing.

Therefore, this determines that the PTA rally is only a rebound, and the rising base is still not strong enough.

On the one hand, subject to

The impact of the decline, the recent shortage of PTA spot supply; on the other hand, by the impact of the decline in the late supply, since August 27th, the PTA main contract 1601 has risen sharply, the price from 4436 yuan / ton to 4690 yuan / ton.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is difficult to change, and downstream enterprises have fewer orders. PTA futures rebound is highly restricted. We need to pay attention to the 60 day moving average.

The suppression effect of the period price.

Since the beginning of 2011, under the combined effect of oversupply and weak demand, PTA has been on the decline and the price has started to fall from a high of 12000 yuan / ton.

Until the first half of 2014, PTA production enterprises were unable to cope with the pressure of declining revenues, and they adopted the measures of limiting production and protecting prices to save themselves.

PTA futures opened a strong rebound, but it didn't last long.

In the second half of 2014, the price collapse caused by crude oil fell, and the PTA price fell to 5000 yuan / ton from 7000 yuan / ton.

Later, with the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PTA price reached 5000 yuan / ton above.

At that time, the fundamentals of PTA could no longer be bad, so that the market thought PTA.

Already limited, the bottom has been formed.

However, since July this year, crude oil prices have been slumped and consumption has been weakening, and the PTA price has fallen below its lows.

Recently, many PTA production enterprises have stopped production and maintenance.

Among them, Hengli Petrochemical 6 million 600 thousand tons of production capacity decreased from 8 to 9; Yisheng Petrochemical 2 million tons capacity was overhauled in early September; Honggang Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand tons capacity was overhauled from 7 to 23 days in September; the 1 million 100 thousand tons capacity of Zhuhai BP was overhauled from September 9th to September 24th.

Overall, the current PTA production company's operating rate has dropped to around 45%, PTA Enterprises Limited production insurance measures have been very good results, as of now, the PTA price rebounded nearly 500 yuan / ton.