PX Phased Overhaul Increases Price Impact.

Recently, the maintenance of PX devices in Asia has increased significantly.

Thailand PTT62 10000 ton plant stopped in July 28th, planned to stop and repair for 75 days or so. South Korea's Ssangyong 800 thousand ton plant stopped in August 18th and planned to stop for about 30 days.

From 9 to October, a large number of PX devices are still being overhauled.

In the first half of this year, the PTA factory faced a huge loss.

Against this background, Far East Petrochemical officially declared bankruptcy and quit the PTA industry competition.

Although there is no Alliance Limited production in the industry, many major manufacturers have chosen to cope with parking overhaul, especially since August.

According to the information released by the PX plant at present, apart from the 1 million tons of Urumqi Petrochemical Company's load reduction operation in September, there will be more than 300 tons of equipment in the Asian region to be overhauled, 700 thousand tons in Korea, 700 thousand tons in Samsung, 1 million tons in Total, ten thousand tons in Korea, 250 thousand tons in Japan, and all of them are planned to stop in October. In addition, the GS40 10000 tons plant in Korea is planned to reduce production in November.

The PX load will drop again to below 70% below two years.

Judging from the current PX production profit, PX- naphtha spreads remain at $350 / ton, and is still at a good profit level throughout the polyester industry chain.

However, in the context of the increase in the overhaul of the PX plant and the absence of more new capacity releases, the PX processing profit level is expected to show an expansion trend, which will form strong support for PX and PTA prices.

As the direct upstream material of PTA, the price of PX is directly related to the price of PTA.

2013 - 2014, a large number of new PX production capacity began to release, PX processing profits from 600 - 700 US dollars / tons of profits sharply compressed to 300 - 350 dollars / tons of the margin of the break even line.

In 2015, the pressure of new PX production capacity was relatively small. Only 1 million 600 thousand tons of Sinopec Sinopec set up a new set of equipment in August, and it was officially put into operation in August. In the first half of the year, the accident of Tenglong aromatics aromatics explosion occurred, which made the market oversupply more relaxed.

Specifically,

650 thousand tons

In August 18th, it began to stop and repair to mid October. Yisheng Ningbo 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment failed to stop and repair in August 27th, and the 650 thousand ton plant was stopped again in September 11th because of the fault. In the end of August, the 2 million 200 thousand ton device of the petrochemical plant was overhauled at the end of August, and the line 3 will be overhauled in turn. The 1 million 500 thousand tons of Honggang petrochemical company started to stop and repair to BP110; the installation of the Zhuhai 10000 ton plant began to stop and repair for about 15 days; the Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical 400 thousand ton plant started to stop and repair in mid; the Hon Bang Petrochemical 600 thousand ton plant plans to stop and repair at the bottom; the Tianjin Petrochemical 340 thousand ton plant plans to stop after the completion of the Yizheng inspection; after the completion of the Yizheng inspection, a set of hidden ton PTA plant is set up, and the equipment starts to be overhauled at the beginning of the problem due to equipment problems.

In addition, Yisheng Hainan has 2 million 200 thousand tons.

3 million 300 thousand tons and two sets of large units will also be serviced in turn in October.

Preliminary calculations show that the overhaul involved PTA production capacity of more than 15 million tons, and the minimum load will be reduced to below 50%.

Data show that as of September 11th, the total volume of warehouse receipts increased by 41565, which was significantly reduced compared with 175 thousand in the previous period.

This is due to the tight supply and demand of PTA itself. On the other hand, according to the rules of exchange, PTA warehouse receipts will be cancelled in mid September.

From the current situation, the warehouse receipts pressure in September has been completely resolved.

At the same time, PTA factory processing profit has also improved, but it is still the only loss in polyester industry chain.

As of September 10th, with the processing cost of 720 yuan / ton, the PTA factory's dynamic profit and loss was restored to -248 yuan / ton.

From the historical profit and loss level, the processing cost of PTA factory is relatively limited, which is only 300 to 400 yuan / ton.