Guo Shiliang: "Deleveraging" Has Gradually Become A Major Trend.

With the end of the over-the-counter allocation, the impact of the market "deleveraging" will also gradually decrease.

As a result, it also gives the A share market a certain breathing space.

Therefore, at this stage, it is particularly important to boost confidence in market investment.

Since the end of last year, both field financing and over-the-counter financing have been developing rapidly.

Take the over-the-counter asset allocation business as an example, with the rapid activation of market investment enthusiasm, many highly leveraged tools are gradually emerging to meet the needs of various investors to expand the leverage ratio of funds.

Among them, the most rapid development of off site capital allocation is probably between March and May this year.

"Cheng also levers, fail to leverage" is a real portrayal of the recent A share market.

Obviously, with the emergence of market policy turning point, highly leveraged funds have encountered a heavy impact, and "deleveraging" has gradually become a major trend.

In September this year, under the trend of "deleveraging" in the market, stock allocation business was also gradually impacted.

According to the previous requirements, the clearance of stock allocation is roughly divided into four stages.

Up to now, the market has basically completed the first, second and third phase of the clean-up task.

At the same time, according to the latest statistics, as of September 23rd, a total of 69% of the OTC funding accounts have been cleared.

In this regard, it can be considered that, from a time perspective, the clean-up of the OTC capital allocation has come to an end.

It is worth noting that the "deleveraging" of the pre market market has exerted great influence on the investment confidence of the market.

During this period, regulators also made an open statement, and stressed the need to continue to clean up illegal securities business activities, but asked to clean up the allocation of funds should not simply adopt a "broken" way.

In essence, the rhythm of clearing the off site stock market in the A share market has been somewhat relaxed, and at this stage, the rhythm of clearing off the market has already entered a "steady and orderly" state.

Specifically, the first stage is to complete the liquidation of stock investors with less than 1 billion yuan in stock before September 11th. The second stage is to complete the clearance of securities dealers between 1 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan by September 18th, and the third stage is to complete the liquidation of the securities dealers who have allocated funds outside the stock market below 15 billion yuan by September 30th.

As for the fourth stage, that is to say, we will finish the work of cleaning up large scale stock dealers before the end of October this year.

However, after the market "deleveraging", it does not mean that

There will be a major turning point immediately.

The reasons are mainly reflected in several aspects.

First, after the market has accelerated the "deleveraging", the leverage effect on the stock market has plummeted.

In this regard, in a market driven environment driven by capital, the state of "becoming a capital and losing money" is indispensable.

So it can be seen that after the "de leveraging" in the stock market, it has also reduced the expectation of the influx of new liquidity in the market.

Second, the stock market needs to maintain a stable state in the short and medium term.

During this period, however, there were institutional reforms in the market, such as T+0

The probability of landing and other policies is not great.

Therefore, in a stock market dominated market environment, it also suppressed the stock market's rebound height.

Third, the external environment of the stock market has many uncertain expectations.

Obviously, in

There will always be a situation of "magnifying profits and reducing profits".

In another step, if the external market environment of the stock market deteriorates, it will also pmit the negative impact to the A share market, thus exacerbating the volatility risk of the stock market.

The author believes that it is particularly important to boost market trust at this stage.

But boosting confidence in market investment is not a task that can be accomplished overnight.

According to the analysis of the current market environment of A shares, there are still more unstable factors in the future stock market, and the investment confidence in the A share market also needs a hard repair process.