Stock Market: Short Term Is Expected To Burst Rapidly

At the end of the afternoon, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index dropped sharply, but there was a weak return in the intraday market, but the two fell after 14:10.

Oil and petrochemical upgrading in the late stage did not show a big break, and the index still runs within the range of shocks.

At the close, Shanghai stock index reported 3262.44 down 0.93%, Shenzhen index 10901.48 fell 1.27%, and gem index reported 2305 down 1.58%.

Two cities only iron and steel, the oil industry plate index red plate, trading volume is basically flat compared with yesterday, the net outflow of funds is obvious.

When the index goes back to where it is, it can not be fully predicted at present. If the index goes down to the ground, it will not seem to be a powerful auxiliary judgement point in the long term oscillation in September, that is, 3250.

At this stage, the differentiation of stocks will become increasingly serious, and the fundamentals of the stock market will be good in the early stage, and the value of investment will be further highlighted if the stocks with a deeper decline.

In particular, the stocks with good fundamentals and clear performance expectations are expected to explode in the near future.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today, CPI rose 0.1% in September, an increase of 1.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, a decrease of 0.4% in the PPI ratio, a decrease of 5.9% over the same period last year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month.

PPI for 43 months is negative, CPI is much lower than expected, deflationary pressure is increasing. Under the weakening of the real economy, the easing policy is imperative. The fourth quarter interest rate reduction is a probability event. The gradual stabilization of the exchange rate under the stability of the central bank has created conditions for easing.

ANZ believes that China needs to further relax its monetary policy and expects that the central bank will drop another 50 basis points in the fourth quarter.

If CPI goes further down, the central bank may again.

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China Merchants Securities expects the fourth quarter inflation level to be 2%, and the annual inflation rate is 1.6%.

Temporary fall in inflation is conducive to the continuation of previous robust

And the keynote of positive fiscal policy.

It is estimated that the decrease in foreign exchange holdings in September will be narrowed to -2500 and -3500 billion yuan. With the decreasing trend of cross-border capital inflows compared with previous years, the central bank may continue to reduce its accuracy and cooperate with a variety of quantitative tools to supplement the basic monetary gap.

With institutions

The expected improvement, the previously quiet private offering product enthusiasm began to pick up, and the strength of issuing channels such as brokerages and trusts increased.

Recently, private equity funds have generally started exploratory placement, basically maintaining around 30%.

There are various signs that institutional investors are no longer pessimistic in the face of the current situation. Although they have not entered the market in large numbers, they are optimistic enough.

Technically, in the afternoon, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index did not show rapid rise in a short time. On the contrary, there was a slight fall again. The index was below the axis of the interval (near the Shanghai Stock Index 3280, near the Shenzhen 11000 index).

The above phenomenon shows that the short axis will restrict the rapid rise of the index's short term, while the extension of the interval oscillating trend will increase the probability of the index breaking down in the lower area of the central axis of the index fall interval, and then significantly increase the trend of stepping back after breaking the pressure of many parties after the festival.

The current index is not completely out of the shock range of the stock indexes, but the suppression of the 5 minute K-line average system still keeps the downward trend of the short term index.