Intermediate Rebound: The Market Is Approaching The Critical Point.

At present, the deleveraging and the introduction of the market are almost certain. The personnel firing pistol has already started, and the management mentality has changed obviously.

Because of the rapid development of the market situation, the relevant verification signal card is really dense and early proof of the true situation, does not exclude the actual signal is still fermented, and the expected high market has been reflected.

If the market believes that liquidity is not a problem, then the intermediate rebound we put forward is likely to start.

If liquidity does not relax, it will affect the height of the rebound. If we relax in time, then the intermediate rebound will be realized perfectly.

From the perspective of historical experience, because the private sector pursues absolute gains and is relatively flexible, the ranking system of public offering institutions is often the market variable node. The grassroots research also shows that institutional investors are generally low in positions and there is no shortage of money in the market. Once confidence is restored, the market is expected to gain strong support.

1, the results of steady growth are beginning to show, and follow-up measures are expected to continue to exert strength.

Many initiatives to promote steady growth, PMI improvement has begun to show steady growth results, the new housing market will continue to exert force, the subsequent steady growth efforts are expected to continue to increase.

2, liquidity tends to improve, monetary easing over the scope of the possibility of a substantial increase in the scope of hedge

The Fed's rate hike is expected to weaken, the international market environment is improving, foreign exchange holdings are expected to weaken, monetary easing will be relaxed beyond the scope of hedging, and the liquidation of off site capital allocation is also close to the end, with overall liquidity improving.

3, personnel starting gun, management ideas change effectively boost market confidence.

Market order has been rectified and purified, and the development of the medium and long term system has been restored. Market sentiment has been restored. The index, volume and the balance of the two balances have shown signs of marginal improvement.

4, the key signal has been proven true, intermediate rebound market is close.

At present, the deleveraging and the introduction of the market are almost certain. The personnel firing pistol has already started, and the management mentality has changed obviously.

If the market thinks liquidity easing is not a problem, an intermediate rally is likely to start.

If liquidity does not relax, it will affect the height of the rebound. If we relax in time, then the intermediate rebound will be realized perfectly.

5, the real market after the three wave deduction: blue chip set up, theme accompaniment, growth singing opera.

First

Set up the platform to stabilize market sentiment, then the theme is active and continuous enhancement, volume enlargement, finally is growth and small ticket singing opera.

6, pay attention to two key words of performance and flexibility, and actively layout thematic investment opportunities.

It is suggested that we should focus on new energy vehicles and charging piles, nuclear power and nuclear power, big data and network security, satellite navigation, sponge City, Beijing Universal Studios, Disney, leisure consumption and services, state-owned enterprises reform, 13th Five-Year plan, and China made 2025.

Since early August, when we put forward the "911- double 12" intermediate rebound starting point, the relevant verification signals have been verified.

Did we rebound in the report "911- Double Twelve" intermediate? "Points out that the possibility of intermediate rebound has increased sharply in October.

In the short term, around the three major logic that we put forward, the steady growth and overweight, the improvement of the size and liquidity (monetary policy and over-the-counter allocation) and the change of management ideas (personnel), the related verification signals continue to accelerate the evidence, and the market is approaching the critical point.

1, the results of steady growth are beginning to show, and follow-up measures are expected to continue to exert strength.

After accelerated approval of stable growth projects, the sources of project funds are guaranteed through debt replacement, increased issuance of urban bonds, special financial bonds and PPP funds.

Driven by steady growth projects, the PMI index in September was 49.8%, an increase of 0.1% over last month, of which the more obvious PMI of large enterprises rose to 51.1% and returned to the ups and downs.

Steady growth measures are continuing to be launched, new energy vehicles and small displacement vehicles, real estate new deal launched, the central bank to promote credit assets pledge refinancing pilot.

The relevant policies are expected to be further strengthened in the future. The government's approval and filing of investment project management regulations, opinions on comprehensively deepening the reform of investment and financing system, and government investment regulations are expected to be launched in the second half of the year.

2.

Tends to improve, monetary easing over the scope of the possibility of a substantial increase in hedge.

On the international side, the US non farm and ISM economic data in September were not as good as expected. The market is expected to weaken the Fed's rate hike and reduce the pressure on the emerging markets. During the National Day holiday, the global risk asset price performance is strong. The central bank has increased the foreign exchange risk margin and actively guided in the forward market. At the end of 9, the foreign exchange reserve decreased by 43 billion 200 million US dollars to 3 trillion and 514 billion US dollars, a drop of more than half from last month.

In September, the prices of live pigs and pork fell, and the upward pressure on CPI weakened.

Judging from the performance of treasury bond futures market last Friday, the market is also expecting stronger monetary easing.

In September 30th, the size of the fund was 10 billion -150 billion yuan, and the clearance period for securities dealers was closed. Most of the securities companies were in this area, so the off-site allocation of funds was near the end, and the actual impact on the market would be gradually reduced.

3.

Starting pistol, managing ideas and changing effectively boosted market confidence.

After the stock market crash, regulators gradually shifted from saving the market to treating both the symptoms and the root causes, paying attention to the recovery and rectification of the market order, and strengthening the long-term improvement of the capital market.

The handling of a series of illegal cases has played an important role in restoring market order and restoring confidence. Relying on palliative stocks, repurchase dividends to encourage value investment and the introduction of index fusing mechanism provide support for the long-term healthy development of the stock market.

From the market performance after the festival, the market sentiment has improved significantly, and the market position and volume have increased moderately. The gem indicates that the [1.20%]5 price rises to 9.68%. The volume of the two cities increased from 370 billion yuan before the holiday to 596 billion 532 million yuan at the end of last week, and the two balance of assets showed signs of recovery, ending in October 8th of 922 billion 406 million yuan, compared with 906 billion 709 million yuan in September 30th.

We once again reaffirmed that after the certification, the market rebounded with the three wave of blue chip set up, theme accompaniment and growth singing.

First of all, the rebound will start from a steady growth blue chip market. Its characteristics are mainly reflected in the bottom of the market, that is, the market stabilizes, the individual blue chip sector has begun to gain absolute gains, and the market's faith has been restored. Since then, the top-down and bottom-up drive has been characterized by active themes, continuous theme enhancement and market volume enlargement. Finally, singing and dancing will still be the two bird theory, including the traditional industries that reform the background, and the growth sector of the pformation background.