Fourth Quarter Investment Risk Decreased Significantly

From the point of view of deleveraging, the market has been more leveraged in the first 3 quarters, and the margin of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has been reduced from 1 trillion and 480 billion to 580 billion, leaving almost nothing left, and the market safety factor has been greatly improved. This means that the A share market in the four quarter will be able to increase investment opportunities once it stabilizes.

Of course, in the four quarter, we still need to guard against the two major risks: the depreciation of the renminbi and the risk of IPO recovery.

There is reason to believe that in the four quarter did not exist.

In the market, investors with strong ability to choose stocks have certain profit opportunities.

Why RMB?

The direct reason is that foreign exchange reserve has become a reality from rising to falling, and at the same time, the number of outflows is not small.

The indirect reason is that China's economy has slowed down under the new normal pattern, which has increased the worries about China's economy.

The depreciation of RMB began last year, and foreign exchange reserves decreased by 94 billion US dollars in August alone.

Under extreme circumstances, according to the current rate of depreciation, China's reserves of more than 3 billion can still last 3 years.

In view of this, the depreciation of the RMB will be an extremely long-term process.

In addition, the US dollar interest rate issue, which has always been concerned, is not very high in the four quarter. At least for now, the Fed has confirmed that it will not raise interest rates in September.

IPO is to be restored sooner or later, because IPO is an important part of direct financing. At this stage, it is urgent to pform deposits into investment so as to stimulate the economy in an all-round way.

The loss of IPO has great impact on the investment link of the economy and is unfavorable to China's economic recovery.

Therefore, the timing of IPO recovery is very important, considering that the market in the four quarter is a period of stability after the collapse.

Whether the gate can be opened or not, I believe the management will weigh it carefully and seriously consider it.

Personally, it is believed that the market will be panic on the day of IPO opening, but because the market has already fallen earlier, even if IPO opens the gate, it will only form a slow bear pressure on the index trend without collapse.

The three quarter is the process of deleveraging, and the fourth quarter is the process of finding the balance of market capital supply. In other words, the process of seeking balance is the process of rising and falling, which is unlikely to be a unilateral downward process.

A market that rises and falls will contain a lot of opportunities.

In September, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index has no innovation low, indicating that the heavyweight stocks have stabilized, the CSI 500 index and the gem index have dropped 50%, and the security is also increasing.

Many companies, with the support of the industry buyout fund, have greatly expanded their purchasing industry leading enterprises. This kind of stocks are likely to be built up by large scale capital in the fourth quarter. The sharp fall in the three quarter also brought huge investment opportunities to these stocks in the four quarter.

China's market is vast. If we buy foreign technology and market, its growth will be considerable in the future.

Fourth quarter, there are many ST shares will be picked up, of which there is arbitrage of at least 10% of the very low risk trading opportunities.

Arbitrage 2~3, revenue can reach more than 20%, the annual arbitrage once, 20% of the profits into the company may be fully restructured, to win several times the opportunity.

Of course, the biggest difficulty of gambling restructuring is that it is difficult to find buying points, sometimes the difference between buying points and lows will be 50%.

If we only gamble with profits, the pressure will be small, even if the stock falls 50%, we will not care.

In addition to the above two profit models, many industries have one or two such low risk arbitrage opportunities every year because of the sudden sharp increase in the prices of raw materials.

If the coal slump in 2012, the number of power shares increased several times, which is the result of the profit change of the coal power industry chain.

This year is the oil slump as the aviation sector. Of course, after the devaluation trend of the RMB is established, the performance of the aviation unit is too good to be done.

The difficulty of the above pactions is first to grasp the market, followed by industry qualitative and company performance calculation.

As long as there is no systemic risk, this way basically profits stability is very high.

Of course, we need to pay attention to risks while making profits. The early hot topics such as SOE reform, military industry and Internet + are resolutely untouchable in the fourth quarter. After the story has ended, the opera is over, and the actors leave the field. Investors need not participate in the short term trading opportunities.