Investment Weathervane: Rebound Will Not Happen Overnight.

In spite of the steady growth policy intensive push up the demand for funds, but on the positive side, we see that the "pig cycle" is weak, the exchange rate has risen, the fourth quarter CPI and exchange rate easing monetary policy easing role is weakening, continuous easing is a big probability event. Since August, things have been evolving in the direction we predict. The intermediate rebound has come from wind to heartbeat, from heartbeat to action.

First, since August, modern logistics, underground pipe corridors, urban parking lots and other infrastructure projects and a series of substantive support policies for small and medium-sized enterprises have landed, and the policy of steady growth has continued to accelerate in the near future. At the executive meeting of the State Council at the beginning of the year, Li Keqiang clearly defined the "three pillars" of major water conservancy projects and shantytowns, and the construction of Railways in the central and western regions.

from Steady growth According to the actual landing of the policy, the landing situation and completion rate of the project in 1-8 months are lower than that of the plan, and a large number of projects will be speeded up before the "deadline" in 9-12. In October 8th, the audit results of the steady growth project announced by the Audit Commission showed that the implementation progress of 193 projects in the audit projects was obviously lagging behind, accounting for 23.7% of the total audited projects, involving an investment of 286 billion 862 million yuan. Specifically, in terms of railway construction, as of the end of August, there were 99 projects in 333 projects under construction, and the annual investment plan completion rate was less than 50%, involving an annual investment plan of 173 billion 724 million yuan. In terms of water conservancy construction, the central government invested 12 billion 433 million yuan in major agricultural water-saving projects in 2015 provinces in 2015 provinces in the 2015 year, and only 708 million yuan was completed at the end of July. The investment completion rate was only 5.69%, and the progress was slow. In terms of highway construction, the "broken ends road" of the 7 national highway network in 4 provinces had not been started due to the long period of examination and approval procedures and the ineffective promotion of local governments.

Second. Liquidity Loose effect It is spreading from high-grade debt to low class debt, from short debt to long debt, from interest rate debt to credit debt, from pure debt to convertible bonds. Next, from debt market to stock market?

From the results of the "neutral" monetary policy, liquidity is relatively loose at present, and this easing is driving the rotation of asset prices. Through the overall bull market of the bond market in the past year and observing its structural changes, it can be found that the rotation of asset prices is actually brewing within the bond market.

Three important information can be observed from the change of the bond yield structure: first, the market risk preference is picking up and the risk premium is decreasing; two, the market tends to be consistent with the long-term interest rate downtrend; in other words, it is the expected strengthening of further easing monetary policy; three, the rotation of large assets is still in progress, liquidity and risk preference are promoting the allocation of funds to high risk and high yield assets. According to the current trend, the internal rotation of debt cattle has been relatively complete. If liquidity can sustain the current loose situation, the stock and debt double cows will come.

Third, Personnel matters Starting with the firing of the pistol, changes in the management of the securities market can effectively boost market confidence. After the stock market crash, regulators gradually shifted from saving the market to treating both the symptoms and the root causes, paying attention to the recovery and rectification of the market order, and strengthening the long-term improvement of the capital market. The handling of a series of illegal cases and the personnel adjustment at the regulatory level have played an important role in restoring the market order and restoring confidence. Dividend differentiated tax, repurchase dividends, encouraging value investment and the introduction of research index fusing mechanism provide support for the long-term healthy development of the stock market. From the market performance after the festival, the market sentiment has improved significantly and turnover has increased significantly. The volume of the two cities has increased from 370 billion yuan before the holiday to 923 billion 600 million yuan this Monday. In October 12th, the two financial balance increased by 24 billion 100 million on a single day, the largest increase since June, and the balance rose to a new high level for one month.