PTA: Late Maintenance Unit, Restart The New Plant, Put Into Operation.

Recently, the price of PTA has dropped slightly, and the price of East China market has fallen from a high of 4720 yuan / ton to 4620 yuan / ton. The main reason for the fall in prices is the recall of crude oil prices.

In the later stage, the supply of PTA will be increased, and the extent of corporate losses will increase again. The reason is that in late September, early October, Yisheng petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical part of the PTA device was scheduled to be overhauled so that the PTA operation rate returned to a low level of 56%, and PTA supply temporarily tightened. However, the repair period of the device was between 10 and 15 days, and the set of repair devices started to restart in mid 10 months later, which would offset the multi effect of other device overhaul. Moreover, the fourth quarter PTA market also has 2 million sets of Jiangyin Hon BANG 2 tons and Sichuan Shengda 1 million tons two sets of new installations put into operation. Subsequent overcapacity will intensify.

In the early October, the international crude oil market rebounded strongly, both geopolitical factors and government officials' intentions. The event has made the market ignore the fundamentals of crude oil weakness.

First, OPEC and IEA9 monthly reports all show the fact of oversupply. OPEC 9 monthly report showed that oil production increased by 109 thousand barrels per day, and the supply was 31 million 570 thousand barrels per day, the highest level since 2012. The IEA monthly report shows that even if low oil prices inhibit the supply of oil producing countries outside of OPEC, the oversupply of global oil market will continue until next year, as demand growth has slowed down from five years high and OPEC's main oil producing countries still maintain high output.

Second, although the US drilling platform has decreased for six consecutive weeks and output has dropped from 9 million 600 thousand barrels per day to the current 9 million 100 thousand barrels / day, imports from the United States are also falling, and the consumption of crude oil in the US market is shrinking.

Third, currently in the off-season of crude oil demand, the global refinery overhauled, US crude oil inventories continued to rise, and downstream oil stocks continued to increase. In short, crude oil prices upward base is not strong, the latter will continue to oscillate weak trend.

At the beginning of October, the price of PTA rebounded slightly, and the price of East China market rose from 4460 yuan / ton to 4720 yuan / ton. There are two reasons for the good market. First, the PTA industry is in a state of de stocking, and the pressure on social inventory is not large, which is conducive to the increase of PTA enterprises in order to reduce the extent of losses. Last week, the PTA industry started up at 59.10%, the polyester industry started at 76.30%, and PTA's supply and demand reached 25 million 670 thousand tons and 30 million 40 thousand tons respectively. Two, during the festival, the crude oil market rose by 12%. PX The PTA market was boosted by a 7% rise in cost and a rise in costs.

In the export market, the amount of textile exports in China has shown a downward trend. On the one hand, the textile industry in Southeast Asia has developed rapidly in recent years, and has seized the share of the Chinese market. On the other hand, some domestic textile production capacity has been transferred to Southeast Asian countries with low labor cost. Under the strong competition of the Southeast Asian market with more cost advantages, the export proportion of China's middle and low grade garment fabrics has been significantly reduced, and the foreign trade orders for weaving have been insufficient this year. In September 2015, textile exports amounted to 9 billion 705 million US dollars, down 0.48% compared with the same period last year, and clothing exports were 17 billion 206 million US dollars, down 8.48% from the same period last year. In addition, 1 - 9 months, Textiles and garments The total export volume was 211 billion 329 million US dollars, a decrease of US $10 billion 534 million compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 5% over the same period last year.

　　 Domestic market In August 2015, the retail sales of 50 major large retail enterprises in China were flat compared with the same period last year. In terms of classification, retail sales of clothing products decreased by 4.8% compared to the same period last year, the growth rate dropped 2 percentage points from July, down 13.6 percentage points compared with the same period.

There is no substantial improvement in crude oil fundamentals, and the cost driven market is hard to expand effectively. 10 in the middle of the month, the PTA devices were put into operation one after another, the pressure of the supply side increased, and the demand for both the inside and outside of the textiles and clothing decreased, so that the PTA demand was finally suppressed. In operation, relying on the upper edge of the oscillation interval, properly absorbing the band and empty space, and the crude oil price is not broken, the location of the lower edge cannot be pursued.