Gao Shanwen: Appropriately Expanding The Scale Of Fiscal Deficits And Flexibly Reducing Taxes

On the exchange market / exchange rate issue, Gao Shanwen said that taking the renminbi as an opportunity to join the SDR, we should speed up the marketization of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and promote the wider and free international use of RMB. The reform in this field is of great significance and far-reaching influence.

8-11 of the exchange rate reform focuses on improving the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate, aiming at enhancing the flexibility and flexibility of the middle price, and the goals and plans of the reform are well designed.

In the future, the RMB exchange rate is more and more influenced by international capital flows, and there seems to be a tendency to depreciate in the future. Therefore, we should further accelerate the marketization of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, further relax the exchange rate fluctuation range, and gradually withdraw.

And ultimately, the free floating of exchange rate is not only necessary but also urgent.

It is necessary and successful for the government to rescue the market. However, it is necessary to continue to observe whether the market has realized the reversal from bear to cattle.

In order to support economic growth, fiscal policy can more actively and flexibly use tax reduction and pfer payment policies, and appropriately expand the scale of fiscal deficits.

Gao Shanwen believes that although China's economic fundamentals continue to weaken this year, this is not the main trigger for market adjustment.

With the clearing of off field levers, it should have come to an end. The panic of RMB exchange rate depreciation has temporarily subsided. Under this background, the market has obviously rebounded.

However, some policies adopted by the previous government rescues have not yet completely withdrawn. There are still variables in the Fed's interest rate raising and RMB exchange rate trend. It will take some time to improve the fundamentals of the economy. Taking the Hongkong market as the benchmark, the premium of the A shares market is still relatively high. Some of the leveraged users in the pre market downturn have suffered huge losses. This has also changed the structure of the market participants to some extent. Judging from these points of view, judging whether the market has realized the reversal from bear to cattle still needs to be observed.

For rescuing the market, Gao Shan said that the government should enter the market to maintain financial stability and guard against systemic risks.

At the worst time, liquidity in the stock market is almost exhausted. From this perspective, the government rescues the market is necessary and successful, and of course the cost is not small.

Gao Shanwen believes that the fair price of the market should be in the range of 3000-3500.

If the market can be stabilized in this area or slightly higher, then the government's

It's more successful.

In the process of intervention and rescue, the government has adopted some temporary control measures, such as the suspension of new shares, etc., and the discussion and promotion of registration system seems to have been affected.

With the gradual stabilization of the market, the market-oriented reform measures including Shenzhen and Hong Kong must be pushed forward.

In view of the macro prospects, Gao Shanwen said that the current economy is facing the dual pressure of weakening internal and external demand, and is in the special background of the three phase superposition. The pressure of steady growth is still great, preventing the hard landing of the economy, and preventing and resolving the financial risks and other risks that may arise in the process are still very important and urgent.

The signs of improving loan demand in the corporate sector are not yet clear. Whether the economy has stabilized is unclear.

Gao Shanwen believes that China's current potential economic growth rate may be slightly higher at 7%, and may further reduce to 5-5.5% by 2020.

If the goal of GDP in 13th Five-Year is set at around 6%, it should be achieved in general.

From the point of view of fiscal policy, while paying attention to the role of infrastructure policy, it may be more flexible and flexible to use tax reduction and pfer payment policies, and appropriately expand the scale of fiscal deficits. This can stimulate consumption and promote economic pformation, as well as enhance social security for low-income groups. While maintaining social stability, it will also promote the spontaneous adjustment of the market. It can also overcome the adverse effects of some government officials' "lazy politics" tendencies on the implementation of policies.

From the point of view of monetary policy, while continuing to guide the decline in market interest rates and maintain the appropriate scale of social financing, we must accelerate the pricing of exchange rate marketization, strive to achieve the free floating of exchange rate at an early date, and completely liberate monetary policy from the task of stabilizing exchange rate, and truly realize the independence of monetary policy.