"Double Fall" Triggered Monetary Easing Guiding Golden Age

China's accelerated entry into the easing cycle will have a significant impact on investment and consumption, and it will be good for enterprises with high debt ratio or eager to finance.

Since October 24th, the benchmark lending rate of the financial institutions has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35%, the one-year deposit rate has dropped 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%, and the interest rate of individual housing provident fund has remained unchanged.

From the same date, we lowered the RMB deposit reserve for financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, and the financial institutions that met the "three rural" and small and micro enterprise loan standards lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points.

According to CICC estimates, the release of liquidity has 700 billion ~8000 billion yuan, just to supplement 8 and September foreign exchange accounted for 700 billion yuan loss.

Since November last year, the central bank has repeatedly lowered its lending and deposit benchmark rates, which is bad for depositors: the one-year deposit rate in September 2014 was 3%, and now it has fallen by half.

This year, investors' psychological expectations have dropped sharply, and the yield of financial products has been sold out to 5%, which is quite different from the previous 7%, 8% yield.

But interest rate cuts are obviously good for consumption.

Since deposit interest rate is actually negative interest rate and investment risk is increasing, it will be a choice for many people to spend limited money on unlimited consumption.

Enthusiasm erupted in the stock market.

From historical data, the stock market has seen a rise or fall after the interest rate cut.

Now the stock market is at a critical stage of rebound, and the central bank has a fire to break away from the dense mined areas.

After the "double drop" news release, Singapore's FTSE A50 index instantly pulled up 2.5%, and the stock index returned to the 3400 mark before the news release. The gem rose 3% to 2500.

The world is entering the loose cycle, and the funds that have been scrambling everywhere have raised the prices of houses in London, Sydney and Shenzhen, and the bonds have entered the Danube stage. Some people who are short of commodities have made a lot of money, so that many entrepreneurs who have only one white paper become rich, making the stock market of the United States and Japan hit a new high in debt and economic turbulence.

The sharp easing of money is not good news for honest depositors, but it makes professional investors into the golden age.

Ordinary people have to start with asset allocation and investment. As a result, wealth will be redistributed on an unprecedented scale.

From the macro data in September, consumer spending is a bright spot.

However, those who need to spend may not be able to raise their consumption level. Because the RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, those who can afford to spend will go abroad for consumption, but it is rather strange to let the central bank reduce the exchange rate.

"Double down" seems good for small and micro enterprises and "three rural", but even if interest rates are cut again and again, if small and micro enterprises and the "three rural" high risks do not decline, then the way of directional reduction will enable small and micro enterprises and agriculture to melt into cheap money, which is against economic laws.

Perhaps, such as

It is said that some people toss in the agricultural field to deceive the government's subsidies from the teeth.

On the evening of September 24th, Vanke announced that the coupon interest rate of the first 5 billion yuan 5 year bonds was 3.5% this year, which has imminent the credit level of the Treasury bonds.

According to the announcement of the Ministry of finance, the 5 year treasury bonds listed in September 14th have a coupon rate of 3.14%.

Data from Wind information show that the current market interest rate of the 5 year debt is about 3.54%, and the interest rate of the Treasury bond market is about 3.13% in the same period.

The bond index of the Bank of America and Merrill Lynch showed that China's offshore bond yields fell to 4.67% in September 23rd, a 5 year low.

High Rating firm debt in September 7th

The interest rate spreads on treasury bonds in the same period also fell to 83.6 points, the lowest since August 2009.

Most of them came from Chinese developers.

Real estate will benefit greatly.

From historical experience, every time

House prices will go up.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, during the 4 negative interest rates in China, the real estate market showed a sharp rise in price: 1992~1995 increased by 60% in the year, 34% in 2003~2005, 12.8% in 2006~2008, and 15% in 2010~2012.

Mortgage interest rates are the lowest in history.

Personal housing loans were launched in 1996, when the commercial loan interest rate was 15.12%; after 7 consecutive downgrades, the interest rate of commercial loans in February 21, 2002 was 5.76%; after that, it fluctuated slightly, increased to 7.83% in September 15, 2007, reduced to 5.94% in December 31, 2008, and 7.05% in July 7, 2011; after that, it was reduced by 5%.

During the current cycle, mortgage loans fell by about 25%. At this point, no loan is needed.