Ren Zeping Again Called The Bear Market To End The Market, Which Occupied The Critical Time.

Last year, from 2000 to 5000, we were called the largest bulls in the market. We were more cautious at 5000 o'clock and almost completely empty after 6.15. In August 25th, we first put forward our views, and there might be a rebound. Then we held three thousand person teleconferences.

At present, the key point is to sum up the past and look forward to the future, because the market is always changing rapidly.

First of all, the general trend is the three question: the economy, the market and the policy. The big asset allocation is simply the exchange market, the stock market, the bond market, the housing market, and the commodities.

The bear market is over, and the market is entering the normal market.

But due to the short time, investors' short-term memory has not yet been erased and their mood is unstable.

In the absence of a significant negative marginal change in fundamentals, policies and capital, the recent adjustment comes from the technical side. The stock market is likely to oscillate repeatedly, and the GEM may become a breakthrough in structural opportunities.

The stock market is now a staunch bull. Why are A shares strong?

To put it simply, my view on A shares is the structural market under the stock market game. Under the background of excessive money and asset shortage, the rapid decline of risk-free interest rate has triggered the rotation of big assets again.

From the direction of the main attack is the growth stock market driven by the stock fund.

Before and after the fifth plenary session, whether the market will switch to value shares and blue chips will need close observation.

We see that 3000 to 3400 is relatively fast, the motherboard 3500 to 3600 points, the gem 2500 points to 2600 points, about 5 trillion of the holding plate, it takes a week to expand the volume of attack, from last Friday to Tuesday this week, we see that there has been volume.

I believe that the market is very smart, choosing the weakest link in the market and launching the gem to attack.

We tend to believe that if there is no shortage of money and risk-free interest rates fall, as long as this platform takes the lead, we will see 3800 points and 4000 points up.

But the medium-term logic did not come out, it is difficult to break through the 5000 point.

Why did the stock market grow so fast last year? Under the driving force of the reform of the cattle market, we took the initiative to attack, reform, and revolutionized the economy.

Now is not the same. Now it is the bottom up repair of risk preference. If the stock fund is added up, it will evolve into a medium-term logic. For example, the key to reform lies in the planning of reform.

If the reform falls to the ground, it is possible to break through the 5000 point, but the present medium-term logic is not yet available.

For the bond market, we continue to see more, generally speaking, stock debt seesaw. Why do we see many stock markets also see more bond markets? Because it is a denominator driven, bond market is to look at interest rates; the stock market is a three-dimensional game, see the profits of the molecules, and also look at the denominator's risk-free interest rate and risk preference.

Therefore, the rise and fall of stock market is driven by risk preference, and risk-free interest rate has certain support for it.

For the housing market, I think housing prices will double in the next ten years and zero growth in the next 5 years.

The dollar sees a peak in stages.

Commodities are looking for a rebound.

We will expand the logic, talk about the fundamentals, the market is good, we generally do not speak the fundamentals, but I think that the basic logic of policy and market starts from the fundamentals.

So we look at the fundamentals and basically face the impact of growth. There are mainly two, one is the long-term macro background, the other is the short-term economic situation.

First, look at the long-term macro background.

The Chinese economy will be L type for a long time in the future. We will enter the L shaped period from a slow decline period. But the bottom of the L shape is not sure, it may be further explored, and it may also be explored. The former is Latin America, the latter is Korea and Japan, but the economic structure type will change after it rises again.

At present, the macro data has not fallen, fluctuating at about 7%, but the micro economy is accelerating.

What should we believe more? Micro indicators.

I went to local research. In some places, industry grew by 7% and GDP increased by 8%, but the amount of electricity generated was negative.

I joked with them that you did a good job in pformation and developed a lot of electricity free industries.

There are other micro indicators. The air quality is better in the whole country, especially in Beijing.

Beijing can count stars on many nights, which means that the economy is very poor. This is the real situation.

09 years ago, I was also at the development research center of the State Council. At that time, I studied a topic. Is it possible for China to cross the middle-income trap? We find that no country can grow forever.

We are facing the handover of growth platforms.

Why should we switch? The old growth mode is ebbing.

We have not formed a new economic driving force through reform and innovation.

Therefore, we first proposed the pformation of growth structure, that is, the growth shift that the government introduced later, the dynamic upgrading of the surface, and the fundamental pformation and pformation. The 5% growth platform in the future will be better than the 8% increase in the past mode, because there has been an upgrade.

So after I resigned from the State Council, I actively appealed for reform, and also made a name for the bull market - "reforming cattle".

The second is the short-term economic situation. I think the fourth quarter is stable. The three quarter is a low point. It is a negative feedback on the stock market crash. The fourth quarter stimulates the housing market, the car market, and the credit volume in the last two months.

In addition, entering the October, the dollar weakened and commodities rebounded. We notice that PPI is better than September in October. The profit of industrial enterprises mainly depends on PPI. In October, no matter the economy or the profit margin of enterprises will stabilize, but in the medium and long term, it is still a L slow detection period.

Deflation is everywhere in the world, not to mention that the price of pork has started to fall. The latest CPI is 1.6.

On the global side, the United States is recovering from rising interest rates, Europe is bottoming out, Japan is recovering, emerging economies are deteriorating and overweight is easing.

Global economic imbalance, capital outflow intensifies and economic fluctuation increases.

In the economic crisis, we generally change the supply side through the stimulation of water demand and stimulation through the demand side instead of through reform or innovation. Therefore, we are faced with the rebalancing and redistribution of demand in the world.

In terms of policy, reform is still under way and monetary policy continues to be loose. I believe there is another reduction in interest rates in the near future. Fiscal stimulus is also being stimulated, but only in the short term.

Exchange rate, we tend to think that the four quarter is stable, the first reason is that with the strengthening of economic and financial stability, panic speculative market will be ebb.

Second, in November, the RMB is facing the SDR assessment. The authorities will not trigger exchange rate fluctuations, thereby increasing the uncertainty through assessment.

Therefore, at the level of exchange rate, the fourth quarter will be stable.

Fourth quarter, the impact of capital flows on the stock market will fade.