Offshore RMB Transfer Pressure Will Be Reduced

In the morning of the 2 meeting of the Hongkong monetary authority, Chen Delin, President of the monetary authority, said at the meeting of the panel on financial affairs and after the meeting that the pool of RMB Yuan had fallen by more than 8% in September. It is expected that the redemption will continue in October, and that the pool of RMB funds will continue to shrink in October, but the rate will slow down. At the same time, Chen Delin said that the reduction of Renminbi pool is a global problem and will not affect Hongkong's status as an offshore RMB center. Investors' conversion of asset allocation will not affect the process of RMB internationalization.

Regarding the trend of RMB and the economic situation in the mainland, Chen De Lin He said that although the market sentiment was not good after the central parity of RMB was adjusted in August, he believed that the renminbi would not depreciate greatly, mainly because the current external trade of the mainland was still surplus, so it had support for the exchange rate. In addition, although the mainland's economic growth has slowed down, it is still close to 7%. The risk of hard landing is not high. The growth of the service sector is still healthy, and the PMI index is still 53%. foreign trade Surplus and real estate return to temperature, these are all supportive of economic development.

Chen Delin said that since September, a total of about 150000000000 of the total capital has been flowing into Hongkong. The HKMA has repeatedly sold Hong Kong dollars to curb the strength of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate. One of the main reasons for capital inflow is the RMB and warehouse dismantling of individuals and enterprises based on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate.

Chen Delin thought, with the Federal Reserve The interest rate normalization is going to happen sooner or later. If the United States increases interest rates, the interest rate difference between the US and Hongkong will attract capital outflows, and then the port remittance will fall back to the weak exchange convertibility level of 7.85 against 1 dollars, which will tighten the monetary situation in Hongkong and increase the interest rate of Hongkong and close to the US dollar interest rate.

Chen Delin pointed out that by the recent stock market decline and other factors, the Hongkong property market turnover also continued to fall. The reason for the fall is that the factors that support the property market have changed, such as the normalization of interest rates in the United States, the slowing economic growth in Hongkong, the increase in the supply of Hongkong real estate, and the decline in the purchasing power and willingness of the mainland to the Hongkong property market.

In addition, Chen Delin also said that as a bridge between the mainland and overseas markets, Hongkong has an advantage over the US dollar and RMB. It is estimated that the future world's major currency settlement will be dominated by US dollars and RMB, so Hongkong has a strong advantage. In consolidating Hong Kong's position as the largest offshore renminbi centre, Chen Delin pointed out that Hongkong needs to strive for self-improvement and innovation, such as the introduction of more new products under policies and regulations. For example, the Shanghai Hong Kong Tong which was launched last year and the mutual recognition of the mainland and Hongkong funds this year have played a role in deepening the relationship between the mainland and Hongkong, and more other measures will also be launched in the future.