Raw Material Market Prices Warmer, Cost Effective Support

Entering the November, the domestic acrylonitrile market bottomed out, with a gain of just 10 days approaching 7%, which far exceeded market expectations.

At present, the main manufacturers in China quote the price of 7900-8100 yuan / ton, and the dealer's main quotation is near 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

The mainstream traders in the port acrylonitrile market are in a tight spot supply, mainly by supply of contract customers, and the spot main stream talks in the vicinity of 8000 yuan / ton.

It is believed that acrylonitrile will maintain a tight volume in the short term, and the market will still see more expectations for the future market. All these positive factors will help acrylonitrile continue to improve.

However, the acrylonitrile plant will gradually resume and the 260 thousand tonnes of acrylonitrile production capacity will be put into operation in late November. In the long run, the market will still return to oversupply.

Meanwhile, the supply side of the upstream market is expected to increase, and there is still downside risk on the cost side.

To sum up, it is estimated that before the end of the year

The trend will show a trend of first rise and then fall. It is estimated that the highest point will reach 8700-8900 yuan / ton in late November, and then slow down to 8000-8100 yuan / ton.

The reason for the rise is: first, acrylonitrile.

Parking is tight.

The production of 452 thousand tons of acrylonitrile plant started from 10 days of "window overhaul" in 10 of its installations in October. The Sinopec Fushun branch failed to produce acrylonitrile with an annual output of 92 thousand tons due to the failure of the propylene plant. It has been restarted since October 28th. In addition, due to the power problem, the annual output of 520 thousand tons of acrylonitrile in Shanghai was stopped in November 1st, and was gradually restarted in recent days. Frequent accidents occurred in the factory installations, and the production equipment of kurul 130 thousand ton / year, which had been closed for more than two months before being forced by inventory pressure, led to the pition from acrylonitrile to extreme tension in East China, which made the acrylonitrile market, which had already fallen into the abyss, regained vitality and returned to life. Installation, Jilin Petrochemical year

Secondly, the raw material market is getting warmer and the cost is good.

Entering the November, the upstream propylene market in the acrylonitrile region has been warmer. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is 4550-4600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the East China region is 4400-4750 yuan / ton. On the whole, propylene market supply and demand is relatively balanced, import and other foreign sources gradually digested, and domestic propylene inventory falls to a reasonable level, and the supply side pressure is not large.

In addition, the rise of acrylonitrile and the price of propylene outside the market also have a certain effect on the market, and the confidence of the industry has picked up.