The Atlantic'S Cross-Strait Mom Runs Counter To It.

Last month, the Fed chose to raise interest rates and the European Central Bank cut interest rates back to 21 years ago, in May of 1994.

Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced a 50 basis point increase of interest rate to 3.5%, while the German central bank governor Hans Tietmeyer announced a 50 point cut to 4.5%.

Surprisingly, the dollar did not rise to German Mark, until the next year in April, the dollar turned over.

Now, the opportunity for the two major central banks to split up has arrived in December.

At present, futures traders think the Federal Reserve in December.

The probability has risen to 70%, and the probability before the non-agricultural data is 56%.

In its statement on 27-28 October, the Fed did not use "step by step" to describe the expected pace of raising interest rates.

If the committee decides to join this commitment in December, officials will return to a clear vision guidance strategy.

Previously, the Fed avoided the use of clear forward-looking guidelines in order to make policy more based on economic data.

This week, Reuters quoted four members of the European Central Bank's management committee as saying that the European Central Bank is now reaching a consensus on lowering the deposit rate at the December meeting, and some members believe that the rate cut should be 10 basis points of market expectations.

The move is expected to further devalue the euro and boost inflation in the euro area.

The average rate of overnight lending in the euro shows that the market now expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 10 basis points in December, with a probability of 60%.

Mandela had just become the first black president in South Africa; detective 3 had just appeared; the Canadian rock band Crash Test Dummies was still singing Mmm Mmm Mmm.

At the same time, the current Federal Reserve Chairman, Yellen, teaches at California Berkeley University. Currently, the president of the European Central Bank, Delagi Dze, is a senior civil servant of the Ministry of Finance in Italy.

At that time, even the euro was not available, let alone the European Central Bank. The European benchmark interest rate was determined by the Bundesbank.

Considering their respective economic conditions, Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced a 50 basis point increase of interest rate to 3.5%, while the German central bank governor Hans Tietmeyer announced a 50 basis point cut to 4.5%.

Surprisingly, however, the Fed's rate hike did not equate with the US dollar's rise.

The US dollar continued to decline for nearly a year, and then only one wave of two years went up.

Jeremy Hale, chief executive of Citigroup's macro strategy, said the central bank's

It is the main driving force of global market volatility, and the two major central banks in Europe and the United States run counter to one another, which is also a major theme of the market.

Hale predicts that after the Fed raises interest rates, the short-term US bond yields will go up, and European stocks will perform better.

The US dollar will go higher.

Of course, it may not be fair to make a comparison between 1994 and now.

In the report, Shahab Jalinoos and Matthew Derr, Credit Suisse currency strategist, pointed out that the situation at that time was that Germany had just reached the peak of prosperity after East Germany unification.

Even after the US interest rate hike was cut in Europe, the yield of German debt was also significantly higher than that of the US debt. By the middle of 1995, the two had begun to close.

The current situation is that the spread of the five year treasury bonds in the United States and Germany has risen to more than 1.80 percentage points, the highest level since 1999.

Shahab Jalinoos and Matthew Derr also expect the US dollar to strengthen and finally hit parity with the euro.

The potential challenge is that the stronger US dollar may worry the Fed, or the expansion of the euro will not further ease the ECB.

Anatole Kaletsky, chief economist at Gavekal Dragonomics, believes that although history may not be easy to repeat.

The weakness of the US dollar in 1994 does not mean that the US dollar will not perform well this time, but this does not mean that the appreciation of the US dollar is already a nail in the cake.