The Domestic PTA Spot Market Seems To Have Been "In A Continuous State".

After entering 2015, the PTA spot market in China seems to have been in a "continuous state". In the first half of the year, several installations suddenly exploded during the year, and faced with the serious excess capacity and the continuous loss of profits, individual PTA factories also withdrew from the PTA "big stage".

Subsequently, in the repeated drag of crude oil and stock market, the focus of its negotiations has been the lowest level since 2008.

In the second half of the year, the domestic trend has been entangled in the cycle of PTA plant installation and shutdown.

At the end of the fourth quarter, there are still many factors that affect the trend of PTA.

In November, the Asian PX plant overhaul plan had not been heard yet, so the pressure of supply and demand of PX has increased, and the degree of excess of PX has been further deepened. Therefore, the gross profit of the PX link has narrowed down gradually.

At the same time, the spread of naphtha and crude oil is now expanding to near $100 per ton, which is at a better level.

Treasure Island believes that the PX price in the late fourth quarter is not large and downward, and there may be an oscillatory trend, that is, the limited space of the PTA cost side will fluctuate in the future.

In the early market, Xiang Lu Petrochemical was restructured and verified by treasure island. It has been determined that PTA will not be produced this year. The two sets of new installations planned for the four quarter (Sichuan Shengda Chemical 1 million tons and Jiangyin Hon Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons) are also postponed to next year.

At the same time, the two quarter and the three quarter of PTA

Continued decline also makes the upper limit of domestic PTA inventory at the end of the fourth quarter more determined.

As far as traditional habits are concerned, there is a significant negative correlation between the profit of the products and the operating rate. However, under the condition that the upper limit of the actual supply capacity is relatively definite, this negative correlation may be phased weakening.

At this stage, PTA enterprise joint production and reduction may bring better results.

At present, the crude oil market shows a relatively obvious trend of fluctuation and fluctuation. Although the price level has several traces of breaking position, it basically gets the support from a solid base of $40-43, and there is a clear trend of gradual decrease in amplitude.

From the recent 2-3 months' trend, crude oil has shown the trend of repeated bottoming in a long period of time, making it easier for the market to find the lower limit of future adjustment.

In addition, because the winter heating oil market has begun to close, and the overall level of the American refinery has been relatively high, which makes the future of crude oil.

It has also been guaranteed.

Treasure Island believes that the current supply of crude oil is still the key factor leading to its price trend. On the one hand, the reduction of crude oil production in the future OPEC countries will be faced with the dilemma of who will yield the profits.

We believe that the possibility of a substantial reduction in crude oil is relatively small. In the future, crude oil in the OPEC countries is still the main source of supply pressure.

On the other hand, since July, the output of crude oil in the United States has been gradually reduced, and the supply of crude oil in non OPEC countries has generally had a positive impact on oil prices.

But we need to pay attention to the fact that oil production in North America needs oil prices to stay low for a long time, so a sharp rise in short-term oil prices will likely lead to a rebound in crude output.

On the whole, ignore oil and cost.

Under the influence of the current upper limit of the actual PTA supply capacity in China, the overall operating rate of the PTA in the late stage is maintained at a level near 65%.

In addition, even though the current PTA business situation has improved significantly, PTA enterprises are above the profit and loss balance line, but treasure island believes that the late operating rate will no longer increase significantly as in the past, so the end of the four quarter is expected that the PTA center of gravity will not rise again, but the downward price space is also limited.