The Downward Trend Of Export Growth Is Hard To Reverse In The Short Term.

In fixed assets investment, manufacturing accounts for 33.4%, real estate 23.6% and infrastructure 22.8%.

Although infrastructure investment has increased over the past year, such growth can only slow down the downward trend of investment and will not reverse the trend of investment.

Since 2000, the end of export has become the "locomotive" of China's economy.

This is determined by China's demographic structure.

Demographic dividend is no longer. The one-child policy in China has led to a downward cliff of population. After 1990s, it was about forty million less than that after the 1980s. After 00, it was about thirty million less than that after the 1990s.

This has led to rising labor costs.

The labor cost in China is three times that of India and Vietnam, and the next labor cost is down.

In addition, the indirect appreciation of RMB against the yen and euro is close to 50% and 30% respectively, which also promotes the downward trend of exports.

Price is the most sensitive indicator of supply and demand.

There is a clear positive correlation between the changes and exports. The greater the appreciation, the greater the impact of exports.

It was suggested that the added value of trade or trade in services should be increased to increase exports.

However, the upgrading of trade is just like a population problem. The textile workers are unemployed, and their children may become software engineers, but it is impossible for them to pform through short-term training.

India is now the largest customer service center in the world, but China can not do it.

The foreign trade Industrial forces formed by the advantages of low cost labor force can not be upgraded in the short term. Trade upgrading is the upgrading of the population's cultural quality, and the comprehensive ability of different educated people is different.

GDP growth power switch, consumption become engine, the three carriages are the only ones left.

The supply of labor is in short supply and the wage level continues to rise, which will lead to the improvement of consumption ability.

Last year to this year, the fastest growing rural population was more than GDP.

The lower the income, the higher the marginal propensity to consume, so this growth is the driving force of economic growth.

With the change of population structure, the proportion of the 40-50 year old population has increased, which has brought impetus to consumption.

In addition, the increase in government expenditure on people's livelihood reduces residents' precautionary savings and promotes consumption.

2016 China

There are two main risks, one is the possibility of market clearing.

Two, the strong US dollar led to liquidity fluctuations. Under the trend of the appreciation of the US dollar, the pressure of domestic capital outflow is increasing.

The global macro-economy is declining except for the United States. The economic growth of most countries has led to the decline of GDP growth. It is very difficult for China as the second largest economy to rely on external driving.

However, China's economy is not dark and bright, for example, structural pformation.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's energy consumption per unit GDP dropped by 5.7% compared to the same period last year, and the decline in energy consumption meant that China's economic color began to change.

Formerly the "black" iron and steel industry, if the third industry is "green", then the Chinese economy is now heading for "green" direction.