Zhang Monan On New Institutional Dividends And Efficiency Dividends

The key to the success of the reform lies in the design of efficient system supply.

Faced with the low efficiency of China's capital formation and the rapid rise of debt rate, we must deepen reform, stimulate market vitality, improve the efficiency of capital formation and allocation, and promote the high quality growth of the economy.

In fact, the macro environment of high investment mode has changed significantly.

From the trend, the savings rate caused by the change of population age structure, labor supply, policy and population structure, and the total factor productivity caused by the reconfiguration of labor force will change.

How to understand the future development path of China's high investment rate and high savings rate?

Over the past 35 years, the largest contribution of China's GDP has been capital accumulation, accounting for about 60%.

It can be said that investment and

The proportion and structure are determined by the specific stage and demographic structure of the Chinese economy. It will gradually become more reasonable with the level of economic development, per capita income and population structure.

For most manufacturing enterprises, the advantage of "demographic dividend" will gradually decay, labor supply growth will decline and cost increase, and the whole economy will enter the stage of rising production factor cost.

The scissors gap of industrial and agricultural products is gradually compensated by the imbalance of supply and demand, and the profit of industrial enterprises may become thinner and thinner.

While corporate profits have fallen sharply, some big companies are hoping to make capital arbitrage through lending.

In the course of the gradual appreciation of RMB in the past, because the interest rate of the US dollar is relatively low, its loan interest rate is even lower than the deposit interest rate of RMB. Therefore, the foreign exchange of liabilities can make the enterprise get significant profits.

In addition, since the international financial crisis, local governments with hunger and thirst for capital have been investing in local financing platforms and government driven investment industries through off balance sheet and interbank debt financing.

Thus, on the one hand, the asset liability ratio of the government and large state-owned enterprises has risen sharply.

Because of the existence of "soft budget constraint", it also causes excessive financial resources and continues to mismatch the large state-owned enterprises with excess capacity.

The relationship between state-owned enterprises and the government has never been cleared up. The state-owned enterprises enjoy the invisible guarantee of the government, which greatly boosted the asset liability ratio of these enterprises.

On the other hand, the government's policy subsidies distort the price of the factor market and drive down the cost of investment.

A large amount of incremental capital is invested in investment driven areas, resulting in structural surplus, investment efficiency and resource allocation efficiency.

At present, China's economic reform and economic growth are not mutually dependent.

It should not be understood that growth is inhibited.

We must increase the supply side strength, replace the old supply with new supply, and really create new institutional dividends and efficiency dividends through reform.

Saving is still our advantage. If we can convert savings into efficient investments, we will form a long-term capital stock, which is beneficial to the growth of high quality economy.

In the next five years, we need to improve the efficiency of capital formation as the core to promote reform in related fields.

First of all, we must further deepen the reform of the investment system, break the segmentation and market segmentation, and effectively protect the investment autonomy of enterprises and individuals.

We should change the mechanism of price formation and eliminate the phenomenon of "multi track system" of factor prices, and accelerate the formation of a "unified, open, competitive and orderly" market system, and release the vitality of market investors.

Second, we must establish a market-oriented capital replenishment mechanism to enable enterprises to return to a healthy level of asset liability ratio.

Third, we must improve the efficiency of government investment and give play to the important role of government investment in technological innovation and R & D.

Through the macro guiding role of government investment, we should increase financial support in the fields of basic research and general technology of industrial development, encourage the innovation alliance of government, industry, University and Research Institute, and promote technological innovation, human capital accumulation and investment and pformation of enterprise equipment.

Fourth, deepen the negative list system comprehensively and stimulate the people.

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From the perspective of future development, shared economy, long tail economy, and zero cost economy are constantly emerging. The new generation of information technology and economic, industrial and technological integration in all directions, such as big data and cloud computing, will continue to give birth to new formats, new products and new models.

In order to further adapt to this new situation, the negative list system that has been promulgated should also strengthen the supply of the system, and timely revise the guidance catalogue of industrial structure adjustment.

Through the negative list system, we can effectively ensure market access and stimulate market potential.

We should restrain local governments' competitive investment, stimulate the vitality of private capital market, and further improve the efficiency of social capital formation and allocation.