The Main Force Of The Stock Market Retaliate Against Risks And Opportunities.

After a stalemate of 10 trading days, the main force of the market today responded comprehensively: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 31.82 points, closing at 3647.93 points, up 0.88%.

As for the gem index, it rose by 2.89%.

The Shenzhen stock exchange closed 639 billion 100 million yuan, and the Shanghai stock exchange closed 380 billion 800 million yuan.

From volume alone, we can identify the hot spot of the market: small and medium capitalization stocks.

On the plate, the Internet financial sector, health care, software services and other gainers.

From the perspective of the style plate, the high net profit rate and high price earnings ratio plate are eye-catching.

The following is my judgement on the recent market:

1, in November 30th, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) considered "RMB was included in SDR", the stock market was highly controlled, and a big fall was not allowed.

If the stock market continues to shut down on Wednesday, the market technology will go bad, so it must go up.

But the rise is also forbidden by management, so the market can only be small and medium capitalization stocks.

2, after November 30th, the market may be at any time.

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The market will be mainly affected by two big news in December: first, the US dollar interest rate increase and the chain reaction; and two is the "big shareholder and Dong Jiangao holding 6 months' ban period" in the stock market crash.

In particular, the latter will have a greater impact.

If there is no delay, the market will fall significantly in December.

3, although liquidity is relatively ample,

The funds are not very well-off, which is mainly due to lack of confidence.

Therefore, it is difficult for large cap stocks to have decent quotes, and they can only be reduced to the main tools.

Therefore, the opportunities for individual stocks are mainly in the small cap stocks, especially the gem.

The "greatest opportunity" in my headline refers to this.

4, the biggest blow to IPO registration reform is to focus on GEM and small and medium board stocks, the so-called "biggest risk".

That is to say, the plate with the greatest opportunity in the short term is the most risky sector in the medium term and long term.

The first half of next year will be

During the important period of declines in valuation, major shareholders will do everything possible to reduce them.

If the state forces to maintain high valuations, the GEM companies will be hollow, and the major shareholders and managers and technicians will also run away.

Because the IPO registration system has come, no one is foolish enough to lose their profits.

Therefore, the gem stock risk is great, if participation must set up a stop loss point, otherwise, if it is quilt, it is very likely that life can not be solved.

5, the IPO registration system is launched in March next year, the official does not recognize, nor denies.

This brings new uncertainties.

In fact, all policies are going one step at a time.

But the tendency of management to push ahead with reform is very obvious.

6, on Wednesday, a number of brokerage researchers released their investment strategy in 2016.

In my opinion, it is wrong to be blind and optimistic in 2016.

Stocks in 2016 will be harder to fry than in 2015.

A super big expansion era is coming. This is the golden age of equity, not the golden age of stocks.

The so-called equity is formed before the listing, that is, the original stock; the so-called stock, after the listing of equity, has been premium several times, tens of times, or even hundreds of times.

You get stocks at tens of times the cost of others (entrepreneurs, venture capital), and hope to earn a lot. This is very difficult.