RMB Is Included In The SDR, The European Central Bank Is Overweight And Relaxed.

The renminbi will soon be included in the SDR, and the last non farm employment report will be announced before the Fed's December interest conference. The ECB may also be more relaxed. For global investors, these events will be very busy next week.

According to CNBC, next Monday, International Monetary Fund (IMF) the renminbi may be included in the basket of special drawing rights (SDR) currencies, giving RMB reserve currency status. Although this may be largely symbolic, it will boost the renminbi and China's influence in the international economy.

Mein Merrill Lynch warned recently that the "huge differentiation" of China US monetary policy will bring pressure on the RMB. By the end of next year, the RMB / dollar will be further depreciated by 9% to 7. The pressure of depreciation will increase sharply after the IMF's vote on SDR in the end of the month.

But Wang Han, chief macroeconomic analyst at Xingye securities, believes that there is still a long way to go for the internationalization of the RMB. It is still necessary for the central bank to stabilize the RMB exchange rate to enhance the investment returns of the "going out" strategy and the attraction of RMB assets to foreign capital. At the same time, from the perspective of counterparties and chips, the central bank also has the ability to maintain exchange rate stability.

In addition, last week, Reuters quoted sources as saying that the yuan is expected to increase the basket of SDR currencies, but the weight may be lower than the expected 14~16%. An official who knows the process of IMF discussion says that the proportion of 14%~16% is too high. Another senior Asian official who saw the IMF report said that the weight could barely reach two digits.

Brown Brothers Harriman foreign exchange strategy leader Marc Chandler also said that the expected weight is 15%, which may be reduced. CNBC quoted him as saying that China interest rate Higher than the United States, the greater the weight, the greater the debt burden of emerging markets.

Another focus is Friday's US non farm employment report, which is the last important report before the 15-16 fed meeting on December. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the December meeting, and non farm employment data will be an important reference for the Fed's decision.

In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will give two speeches next week. She will speak at the Washington Economic Club on Wednesday at 12:35 noon Eastern time. On Thursday, she will attend a hearing of the Joint Economic Committee, which may pass the relevant information about the Federal Reserve raising interest rate to increase interest rates in mid December.

After the policy meeting next Thursday, the president of the European Central Bank Drudge The speech will be delivered. Later, Delagi will leave for New York to join the New York Economic Club on Friday.

On Friday, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold a meeting in Vienna. The organization is not expected to change the strategy of letting the market decide oil prices in the past, but some member states may raise objections.

At present, the biggest objection is Venezuela, which has been mentioned before by Wall Street. Venezuela warned that if OPEC does not take action to stabilize the market, international oil prices may even fall to $25 a barrel. Iran and other countries may also want OPEC to cut production.

According to Bloomberg statistics, the output of OPEC over the past 17 months has exceeded the production target of 30 million barrels per day. Analysts at Societe Generale and JBC Energy expect next month's OPEC conference to maintain current production quotas and not to take any action to keep oil prices above $40 a barrel.

CNBC quoted Alan Ruskin, head of Deutsche Bank's G-10 monetary strategy, saying that the vast majority believed that the Fed's tightening monetary policy was a certainty unless the employment data were extremely weak.

He said that if the US non farm data released at that time showed that the number of new employment exceeded 200 thousand, it would not only mean that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December, but also indicated that the United States would continue to raise interest rates in 2016.

Next Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a meeting, which may increase the easing policy. The monetary policy differences between the European Central Bank and the European Central Bank will further increase.

According to Reuters yesterday's report, the ECB officials may implement a "rating interest rate" policy at next Thursday's policy meeting, which is equivalent to fines for banks that hoard cash in excess of a certain amount. Analysts believe that this indicates that the European Central Bank is about to sharply reduce the current negative interest rate.

According to Reuter's report, ECB policymakers are considering launching two tier deposit rates and buying urban and regional debt, or even buying repackaged loans that may not return in any way.

Wall Street noted today that the so-called two level deposit interest rate is intended to impose an absolute negative interest rate on banks holding too much cash. Because money is lying on the central bank's account, it can't stimulate credit demand without entering the real economy.

This caused the euro to fall below 1.06 against the US dollar and the US dollar index rose to more than 100.