Cotton Prices Rebound From December To February Next Year.

Since the beginning of the year, Zheng cotton has been running at the amplitude of 1500 yuan / ton in the downstream channel of oscillation.

Recently, the price has been running to the supporting position of the lower edge of the channel, and there is a technical rebound expectation, but it is still subject to the whole.

And other factors, it is still difficult to achieve breakthrough.

Once the current price spreads back to the cost of delivery 200 to 300 yuan / ton, this part can be turned into registered warehouse receipts at any time, and the pressure of new warehouse receipt registration will also come, which will be restricted.

The uplink space.

In the near future, the spot market is constrained by the ease of supply and the limited stocking with the purchase. The overall performance is weak. The current price difference is expected to be restored in the slow recovery of the price. Until the current price difference has risen from the current -830 yuan / ton to the delivery cost of 200 yuan to 300 yuan / ton, there is still room for recovery of 1000 yuan / ton.

However, because there are more alternatives to cotton delivery, the difference between the premium and the futures in the spot market leads to a downward trend in the delivery cost of futures.

Although the theme of rebound exists, the theme of reversal is not enough.

Market rumors that before March next year, the state may not throw the store, plus the capacity of the holiday effect is tight, the pportation cost may increase, and the peripheral factors will drive more, such as the harvest speed of the US cotton harvest is relatively slow, and the speed of sales is accelerating. The demand for India is also expected to be better in the context of the textile export tax rebate reduction. The cotton price inflation may extend from the outside, and the market still has the opportunity to rebound, but the whole may still be strong and weak.

In addition, let's look at the next stage.

Great environment.

Cotton purchase in Xinjiang is basically over.

Xinjiang cotton processing capacity of 2 million 900 thousand tons, this year is expected to total processing capacity of 3 million 800 thousand tons, cotton processing has reached 70%, this stage is the supply of cotton supply period, but the overall consumption of the terminal is still sluggish.

Clothing and accessories export remained at a negative growth rate of -8% to -20% throughout the year.

Domestic consumption remained at about 10%, slightly warmer, but not much.

The terminal demand is low, which restricts the textile enterprises to take the goods, thereby dragging their stocking demand.

Supply and demand are still loose, limiting the overall uplink of cotton prices.

At present, the price of Zheng Mian 1601 is 12130 yuan / ton, while the spot 3128B price is 12960 yuan / ton, and the current price difference is -830 yuan / ton.

In the past October 19th, the current price of cotton in recent months was as high as -1200 yuan / ton, and the price difference exceeded -1000 yuan / ton, which led to the purchase of the futures market, which could be corroborated at the financial level.

In the meantime, the main net of Zheng cotton continued to climb. In mid October, the net position was still clear.

In November, most of the main net remained at 10 thousand to 30 thousand. Most of them held 26 thousand hands in the middle of November, and then dropped to 19 thousand in late November. Recently, net positions rose to 27 thousand hands again, showing that the main funds are high and low in operation. This is basically the same as that in the US cotton market.

Against this background, cotton prices are mainly oscillating.