Cotton Prices Will Remain Stable Near The Current Price.

The 1605 month contract of Zheng cotton futures rose sharply on Tuesday, rising at a low level, rising 20 yuan, closing at 11690 yuan, closing about 524 thousand hands and holding about 345 thousand hands.

Spot surface, China cotton price index 3128B cotton reported 12960 points, up 1 points, spot basic changes are not large, continue to show as the adjustment,

Processing is basically over. Cotton enterprises in Xinjiang are stepping up their efforts to move to the mainland to promote sales, and there is no sign of improvement in downstream yarn sales.

Futures intraday trading interval of 11435-11855 yuan, which is relatively rare in the past five months, a sharp shock within the day, continued to fall in the basic pressure, the price once fell below the previous low point, but after the decline in the return market, and rushing back and down, in the shock volume increased significantly.

In a low position, it is prudent. Some of them choose to make profits, and the willingness to continue to lower prices is not enough. Cotton prices are expected to remain stable near the current price.

ICE cotton futures closed up on Tuesday. The most active March contract rose 0.9 cents to 63.54 cents.

Investors' concern over the supply of high-grade cotton pushes cotton prices up. Data showed that cotton harvest rate in the United States reached 80% in the week ending November 29th, lower than the same period last year and far below the five year average. Rainy weather affects cotton harvest process and will affect cotton yield and quality.

The output of cotton in the United States may be lower than the US Department of agriculture's 11 monthly report. China's cotton production may also decline more than expected, and there is a tight side in the supply of high-grade cotton in these two countries. In addition, the US dollar has fallen, the US stock market has gone up and CBOT grain prices have risen, which has certain support for cotton prices.

ICE cotton prices have gone higher and higher, recovering some of Monday's declines, the recent increase in intraday shocks, and the overall market structure has not changed significantly, and still maintain the adjustment market.

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Since the beginning of the year, Zheng cotton has been running at the amplitude of 1500 yuan / ton in the downstream channel of oscillation.

Recently, the price has been running to the supporting position of the lower edge of the channel. There is a technical rebound expectation, but it is still affected by the weak demand and so on. It is still difficult to achieve the breakthrough of the channel.

Once the current price spreads back to the cost of delivery 200 to 300 yuan / ton, this part can be turned into registered warehouse receipts at any time, and the pressure of new warehouse receipt registration will also come, which will restrict the uplink of cotton price.

In the near future, the spot market is constrained by the ease of supply and the limited stocking with the purchase. The overall performance is weak. The current price difference is expected to be restored in the slow recovery of the price. Until the current price difference has risen from the current -830 yuan / ton to the delivery cost of 200 yuan to 300 yuan / ton, there is still room for recovery of 1000 yuan / ton.

However, because there are more alternatives to cotton delivery, the difference between the premium and the futures in the spot market leads to a downward trend in the delivery cost of futures.

Although the theme of rebound exists, the theme of reversal is not enough.

Market rumors that before March next year, the state may not throw the store, plus the capacity of the holiday effect is tight, the pportation cost may increase, and the peripheral factors will drive more, such as the harvest speed of the US cotton harvest is relatively slow, and the speed of sales is accelerating. The demand for India is also expected to be better in the context of the textile export tax rebate reduction. The cotton price inflation may extend from the outside, and the market still has the opportunity to rebound, but the whole may still be strong and weak.

In addition, look at the next stage of the supply and demand environment.

Cotton purchase in Xinjiang is basically over.

Xinjiang cotton processing capacity of 2 million 900 thousand tons, this year is expected to total processing capacity of 3 million 800 thousand tons, cotton processing has reached 70%, this stage is the supply of cotton supply period, but the overall consumption of the terminal is still sluggish.

Clothing and accessories export remained at a negative growth rate of -8% to -20% throughout the year.

Domestic consumption remained at about 10%, slightly warmer, but not much.

The terminal demand is low, which restricts the textile enterprises to take the goods, thereby dragging their stocking demand.

Supply and demand are still loose, limiting the overall uplink of cotton prices.

At present, the price of Zheng Mian 1601 is 12130 yuan / ton, while the spot 3128B price is 12960 yuan / ton, and the current price difference is -830 yuan / ton.

In the past October 19th, the current price of cotton in recent months was as high as -1200 yuan / ton, and the price difference exceeded -1000 yuan / ton, which led to the purchase of the futures market, which could be corroborated at the financial level.

In the meantime, the main net of Zheng cotton continued to climb. In mid October, the net position was still clear.

In November, most of the main net remained at 10 thousand to 30 thousand. Most of them held 26 thousand hands in the middle of November, and then dropped to 19 thousand in late November. Recently, net positions rose to 27 thousand hands again, showing that the main funds are high and low in operation. This is basically the same as that in the US cotton market.

Against this background, cotton prices are mainly oscillating.