The Pressure On Foreign Trade Is Indeed Great. Dividend Policy Will Be Released Next Year.

Foreign trade continued to enter the winter. In November, foreign trade and exports continued to "double drop" trend.

Yesterday, the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that exports of 1 trillion and 250 billion yuan (6.432, 0.0158, 0.25%) in the same month decreased by 3.7% compared with the same period last year. The decline was basically flat with last month; imports 910 billion yuan, down 5.6%, and the decline was narrowed.

The negative growth of foreign trade is a foregone conclusion for the whole year.

Statistics show that in November, China's import and export value was 2 trillion and 160 billion yuan, down 4.5%.

That figure was 9% in October.

The total value of imports and exports in the first 11 months was 22 trillion and 80 billion yuan, down 7.8% from the same period last year, down 8.1% in October.

"The annual foreign trade task is difficult to complete, and the negative growth of foreign trade is a foregone conclusion."

Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, admitted to the Shanghai Daily reporter.

Although the import and export data continued to double down, there were also some bright spots, such as the decline in imports showed a narrowing trend.

According to statistics, imports fell by 5.6% in November, compared with 16% in October.

Meanwhile, imports in the former November narrowed from 15.2% to 14.4%.

"Although the data are not good, imports have improved."

Bai Ming believes that this reflects the optimization of China's economic structure.

Highlights also, electrical and electronic products.

5.2% growth was achieved in the first 11 months.

"The new economic norm is not only changing from high speed to high speed, but also from optimized structure, and from factor driven, capital driven to innovative driven.

In this process, we can see signs of innovation driven.

For example, the electronic information industry with relatively good export growth is precisely the industry that we cooperate with and cooperate with other countries, reflecting the pformation and upgrading of the country.

Bai Ming said: "China's information technology is accelerating, and the overall level of information technology in China is not very high. Under such circumstances, the growth of the information industry is very large.

Another aspect is China's high-speed rail, nuclear power and new energy vehicles. It will also be a new growth point for the future.

Under the severe environment of foreign trade, we must be stable.

The policy has been published frequently this year: some opinions on improving port work and supporting foreign trade development in April 17th; in May 12th, several opinions on accelerating the cultivation of new advantages in foreign trade competition; June 20th, the guiding opinions on promoting healthy and rapid development of cross-border e-commerce; July 24th, several opinions on promoting steady growth in imports and exports; September 6th, the notice issued by the general office of the State Council on accelerating regional integration and optimization of special supervision of customs; and "measures for further promoting stable growth of foreign trade" by the General Administration of Customs in November 25th.

In addition, there are reports that relevant departments are currently stepping up research on policies to support the development of comprehensive service enterprises in foreign trade, and plans to further expand the scope of the pilot and promote new business models of foreign trade will fall into place within the year.

"We will definitely take further measures."

Bai Ming said that the long-term decline of foreign trade has both the problems of the international environment and our own problems: the traditional competitive advantage is disappearing, and the formation of the new competitive advantage has not yet been synchronized.

So next, including the constant pressure of the policy and the continuous innovation of the system, we need some action.

"China's economy will go to a new level in the future, and it will inevitably depend on the matching of various high-quality elements in the world, and it is bound to be inseparable from the international market.

As a capacity to undertake, if there is no optimal allocation in the international market, many opportunities will also be lost. "

Bai Ming said.

Bai Ming stressed that

And demand are two aspects of a thing, while foreign trade is a pnational convergence between supply side and demand side. The FTA and the "one belt and one road" are also aimed at aligning cooperation opportunities with other countries.

According to market analysis, foreign trade is expected to grow next year.

In addition to the low base, a series of policy dividends will be further released next year.

"However, it is noteworthy that the fundamentals have not changed much. There is no fundamental change in the international market and the pformation of our competitive edge, so we should not be too optimistic.

The fundamental change in the future depends on China's superior capacity and whether the high-end manufacturing industry is clustered and large-scale.

Bai Ming reminded.

Among the many policies that have been published, there are efficiency categories, such as customs integration, single window, and so on. There are reform categories, such as the first entry of customs and trade before customs clearance, the declaration of customs, the negative list plus the national treatment before admission, and so on. There are encouraging classes, such as export tax rebates.

However, in the view of Bai Ming, especially in the provision of public services by the government, there is room for further improvement.

"For example, the local government's economic diplomacy is not enough. There are some developed governments in the visit, though they are also carrying enterprises, but the pertinence is not enough.

In addition, in the public information service, because the government has more information than the enterprise, the government needs more work. "

"At the policy level of real gold and silver, there are tax rebates, expanding the coverage of export credit insurance, and waiting for interest rates to be increased."

Bai Ming said.