Chinese Tourists Are The Main Force In The Japanese Retail Industry.

According to the data released by Japan's Ministry of industry and commerce, the retail sales in Japan increased by 0.2% over the same period in December 2014, a sixth month increase in retail sales in Japan.

Some analysts believe that this provides evidence for the gradual recovery of private consumption, and Japan's economy is coming out of recession.

Watanabe Hiroshi, senior economist at Sun Hing Securities, Sumitomo Bank, Mitsui, said the decline in retail sales was due to the fall in oil prices and the effect of pre tax buying before last year.

Taking these factors into consideration, private consumption is on the recovery track.

But some experts disagree.

In an interview with reporters, Liu Yun, Assistant Research Fellow of the Japan Institute of modern international relations, said: "the data in my hands show that the personal consumption of Japan is not good. The sales volume of department stores is negative growth for three consecutive quarters, and the contribution rate to GDP is also negative."

Liu Yun further analyzed that, from the quarterly GDP report and domestic demand report of the Japanese cabinet office, Japan's contribution rate to GDP in the third and fourth quarter of 2014 was -0.28% and -0.5% respectively.

Excluding other factors, Japanese private demand is also the contribution rate of personal consumption demand to GDP is lower, -2.9% and -0.7% respectively.

Data show that in November 2014 ~2015 3 months in January, Japan's family consumer confidence index bottomed out after a continuous rebound, respectively, 37.7, 38.8 and 39.1.

Although continuous recovery is a good sign, it is worth noting that at least 50 of this index means economic expansion.

In view of its latest reading of 39.1, this still means economic contraction.

"Domestic demand accounts for more than 60% of Japan's GDP, and exports account for more than 30%.

It can be seen that domestic demand has great effect on the Japanese economy.

Liu Yun spoke of the role of domestic demand in Japan's economy.

In Japan

Still, the strong purchasing power of Chinese tourists has saved the gloomy Japanese retail industry.

The February sales of the 4 largest luxury department stores in Japan revealed in March 2nd that a large number of Chinese tourists visited during the Spring Festival, which resulted in the first monthly sales growth of the 4 department stores since the consumption tax rate rose in April last year.

Among them, the growth rate of the three Yue Yi Dan Dan was 4%, followed by SOGO, 2.6%.

Sales of duty-free goods in 4 department stores increased by 3 times ~4.4 times in February.

"According to Japanese statistics, the average purchasing power of every 3 tourists in Japan is equal to the consumption of 1 Japanese people a year!" exclaimed Xu. "Tourism has effectively pulled the Japanese economy."

Japan has also continued to develop new tourist groups and launched targeted preferential projects to attract more tourists from all over the world.

Chinese tourists are undoubtedly the main force of consumption in foreign tourists to Japan.

Xu Changwen quoted Japanese media data that there were 2 million 100 thousand Chinese tourists to Japan in 2014.

During the Spring Festival this year, Chinese tourists reached 450 thousand, and in those more than 10 days, Japan gained a net consumption of 6 billion yuan.

According to official data released by Japan, the per capita consumption of Chinese tourists in Japan exceeds 230 thousand yen, which is more than 80 thousand yen higher than the total value of foreign tourists, which is 3 times the per capita consumption of Korean tourists.

Obviously, Japan increased its consumption tax in 2014, which had a great impact on Japanese private consumption.

Liu Yun said that the increase in the consumption tax has greatly reduced the wages of Japanese labor force and reduced wages. "Of course, it does not include rich people who make profits through stocks."

In addition, rising prices have also depressed household spending in Japan.

Xu Changwen, a researcher at the Department of Asian and African Studies of the Ministry of Commerce, also holds this view. In an interview with an international business reporter, he pointed out that raising the consumption tax directly resulted in the slow growth of Japanese residents' income and the average household income decreased by 2.3%.

In addition, in order to cooperate with "Andouble economics",

The government has always asked enterprises to raise wages for their employees, which is a great burden for Japanese enterprises.

70%~80% is a small and medium-sized enterprise in Japanese enterprises, so it is difficult to improve the remuneration of employees.

For the improvement of Japan's economy, Liu Yun admitted that Japan's economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year was 2.2%, much of which benefited from the revival of exports.

Xu Changwen also pointed out that since the second half of last year to January this year, Japan has shown its interest in the United States.

The growth rate is around 2.4%.

Xu Changwen believes that in the "three carriages" of exports, consumption and investment, Japanese exports have benefited from the depreciation of the yen.

In the two main export markets of China and the United States, with the improvement of the US economy, Japan's exports to the US will also increase in the future, and exports to China will also increase.

According to the data released by the Ministry of finance, Japan's exports grew by an annual rate of 17% in January, the fifth consecutive month of positive growth.

Among them, the annual growth rate of China's exports increased by 20.8%, the annual export rate to the US increased by 16.5%, and the Asian exports increased by 22.7% annually (the Asian market accounted for more than half of Japan's exports).

Another encouraging sign is that Japan's industrial output growth in January 2015 has soared to 4%, over 2.9% of market expectations and 0.8% of the December 2014 growth rate.

This expansion is expected to continue, but its growth is mainly attributable to foreign demand rather than domestic demand in Japan.