RMB Events Repeatedly Stir Up The Nerves Of The Exchange Rate Market.

In 2015, the RMB exchange rate passed through an uncomfortable year.

This year, the "8. 11" exchange rate reform and RMB basket entry.

A series of major events, such as the Fed's interest rate raising and the issuance of the RMB exchange rate index, have been stirring the nerves of the exchange rate market.

Reference standard is no longer "unique".

In December 11th, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center issued the CFETS RMB exchange rate index, which includes 13 foreign currencies traded directly at the China foreign exchange trading center.

In this regard, the central bank pointed out that for a long time, the market view of the RMB exchange rate is mainly based on the bilateral exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar, because the exchange rate fluctuation is designed to regulate the trade and investment of many trading partners. Therefore, only observing the bilateral exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar can not fully reflect the international parity of trade goods.

That is to say, the RMB exchange rate should not only be a reference to the US dollar, but also a reference to a basket of currencies.

In the medium and long term, reference to a basket of currencies can better reflect the comprehensive competitiveness of goods and services in a country, and play a more important role in regulating import and export, investment and balance of payments.

In fact, the RMB exchange rate in reference to the 13 Basket Currencies has remained relatively stable.

However, the falling price of RMB against the US dollar seems to be more affecting.

Zheng Lei, director of Investment Banking International Asset Management Co., Ltd., in an interview with Xinhua net reporter, predicted that "no need to overlook the RMB, it will change with the expectation and stability of the Chinese economy."

Zong Liang, deputy director of the International Finance Research Institute of Bank of China, wrote that in the future, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will still suffer some devaluation pressure. However, it is not expected that there will be a trend of devaluation. The RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable under the two-way fluctuations.

Looking at the US dollar exchange rate chart, we can see that in January 2014, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar to 6.0408 reached the strongest record in several years, but then the annual volatility increased significantly compared with the previous years. The first and the last two fell more than 1000 basis points, showing a "N" trend.

In 2015, under the influence of the Fed's rate hike expectations, the renminbi began an extraordinary "journey".

Taking August as the watershed, the RMB against the US dollar showed a two-way fluctuation trend from January to July.

In August 11th, the central bank announced that the central parity mechanism of RMB exchange rate should be adjusted.

On the same day, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.2298, which was nearly 2% lower than the 10 day intermediate price, and a clear and steep straight line "cliff" was formed on the statistical chart of the middle price.

However, in view of the "proactive depreciation", the industry pointed out that this is to prepare for the RMB basket SDR, but also to promote exports.

Asset bubbles.

On the morning of December 1st, Beijing, the International Monetary Fund announced that RMB joined SDR in October 1, 2016.

Due to the expected digestion, the RMB exchange rate remained stable on December 1st and 2, and the 2 yuan to 6.3988 on the 2 day in the last three months.

Yi Gang, vice president of the central bank, said in December 1st that "after the entry of SDR, the two-way floating of RMB is inevitable. Under the circumstances, the central bank will not intervene in the market, but if the balance of payments or capital flows change, the central bank will intervene decisively."

In view of whether RMB will be included in the SDR will cause depreciation, Yi Gang says there is no need to worry.

However, the market forecast that the range of RMB to us dollar exchange rate will increase and maintain range fluctuation in the short term.

The waves are more than that.

Beijing time on December 17th, in the global capital market attention, the Federal Reserve ended seven years of zero interest rate policy, interest rate "boots" landing, the United States opened in the past ten years for the first time to raise interest rates.

However, after the market has gradually digested the effect of raising interest rates, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar ended "ten consecutive falls" stabilized, and the US dollar index changed from strong to stable.

The consensus of the market is that this is pigeon style interest rate increase.

Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the subsequent increase in interest rates will depend on the new economic data. The pace of normalization of monetary policy is prudent and gradual.

How do people keep money bags?

Overseas experience shows that every round of currency depreciation in emerging markets is accompanied by capital outflows and stock market pullbacks.

UBS Securities pointed out that if the RMB devaluation in the near future, the A share market may be under pressure.

In terms of industry sectors, the financial and real estate industries tend to be hit most deeply.

At the same time, the depreciation of the RMB may lead to temporary capital outflow.

According to historical data, the US dollar had a phased peak in 2-5 months after the fed first raised interest rate.

The US dollar has reached the peak stage, the pressure of capital outflow has declined, and commodities may ushered in a wave of technical rebound, the depreciation of RMB exchange rate pressure has dropped, and the space of China's debt has declined, which is favorable for A shares.

In addition, the US dollar has strengthened, and the investment opportunities of Shanghai B-share stock have gained attention.

Shen Wanhongyuan (000166) securities chief analyst Gui Haoming said that now the US dollar savings rate is very low, the corresponding financial product income is also very limited, B stock has become a very good option.

B-share Companies are low in price and low in P / E ratio. Many companies have a low dividend yield and the price has room for improvement. This makes some investors who are interested in holding US dollar cash spot find a good investment opportunity.

Combined with various factors, B shares now have the advantage of being able to enter, retreat and defend, and become one of the first foreign exchange assets of the Chinese people.

For students studying in America, the same RMB exchange rate is much less than before.

According to media reports, the renminbi has fallen sharply, and a large number of citizens have changed their dollars.

Industry experts suggest that customers who plan to use foreign exchange in the short term can observe the fluctuation of exchange rate for several days, find a relatively low position, and divide the risk in batches.

Especially for those who are preparing to study abroad, the amount of foreign exchange capital is relatively large, so they can exchange money first for foreign currency management.

For Hai Tao and outbound tourists, if the renminbi depreciates, it will face rising costs.

In this regard, the financial secretary reminded that if the sea group had no foreign currency in hand, it would need to use RMB to purchase foreign exchange to repay.

If there are enough foreign currencies in the hands of the cardholders, the way of direct repayment of foreign currency does not involve increasing costs.

For outbound tourists, buying foreign exchange first may be more cost-effective.

If the renminbi is on the rise, credit card purchases can reduce the amount of money back, but if the renminbi continues to depreciate, it is best to consider that all cash can be exchanged before going abroad.