The Trend Of Global Cotton Also Depends On The "Face" Of Domestic Stocks.

According to statistics, as of December 28th, the difference of cotton price between inside and outside was reduced to -987 yuan / ton under sliding tax, and the price difference of 1% tariff quota was 1262 yuan / ton.

It can be seen that the quotation of cotton under the sliding tariff is 987 yuan / ton higher than that of domestic cotton, and the attraction of cotton imports under the sliding tax has declined significantly.

1% under the tariff, imported cotton still has a profit margin of 1262 yuan / ton. For quota textile enterprises, imported cotton at this price level is very attractive.

It is reported that textile enterprises generally reflect that this year's domestic cotton, whether Xinjiang cotton or inland cotton, is not suitable for spinning high count yarn, so these textile enterprises have strong demand for high-grade Australian and American cotton.

Recently, Zheng cotton main contract 1605 continued low oscillation, seems to have a rebound intention, but the market has no obvious positive factors support.

This year, the global cotton market showed a shortage of supply, but because of the high inventory at the end of the year and the weakness of downstream consumption, cotton prices showed a weak rebound.

According to the latest estimates of the US Department of agriculture, China's cotton output in this year is forecast to be 5 million 291 thousand tons, 1 million 241 thousand tons less than the previous year, consumption of 7 million 76 thousand tons, 109 thousand tons less than the previous year, and cotton imports of 1 million 197 thousand tons, down 607 thousand tons from the previous year.

Based on the above production and sales data, this year China

Production and import and export data showed a decline of different ranges. Cotton supply and demand also shifted from supply wide balance pattern to supply shortage situation in the previous year, with a shortage of 588 thousand tons.

It is noteworthy that China's 14 million 156 thousand tons of final inventory, though 632 thousand tons lower than the previous year, is still at a record high.

According to statistics, in November 2015, the retail sales of clothing commodities of hundreds of major retail enterprises in China dropped by 5% compared with the same period last year, the lowest monthly growth rate this year, down 5.9 percentage points from the same period last year, down 6.9 percentage points from last month.

From the data of retail sales volume, the volume of retail sales of all kinds of clothing in 100 major large retail enterprises in November increased by 4.5% over the same period last year, down 1.5 percentage points from the same period last year, down 4 percentage points from last month.

From the published data, we can see that there is no obvious signs of improvement in domestic clothing sales.

The domestic market is still sluggish.

Customs data show that in November 2015, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to 21 billion 982 million US dollars, down 7.07%, down 9.71% from the same period last year.

As of November 2015, textile and clothing exports grew negative year-on-year in 10 months this year, and the growth rate is still negative.

It can be seen that the downstream consumption demand of cotton is still not optimistic.

To sum up, the author thinks that, although 2015/2016,

The supply pattern changed from the easing in the previous year to a shortage. It is a profit factor, but the high inventory data can not be ignored.

In addition, the recent market on the late state sell-off cotton reserve hot debate, and national cotton stocks huge, there is also the possibility of future price sell-off.

At present, cotton prices are still weak.