Cotton Imports Continue To Decrease, But Cotton Yarn Imports Are Still Hitting.

The government has issued stricter import quotas for 2015, and will not issue additional import quotas in addition to the quota of 89.4 tons of tariffs imported by WTO (micro-blog), and the demand for textile and cotton blending.

For imported cotton, the 1% tariff rate is implemented within the quota, while the provisional tariff is applied in the form of sliding tax instead of additional imports.

The impact of imported cotton decreased significantly in 2015 years, but imported yarn still suppressed domestic cotton market.

With the widening of the internal and external spreads, the international cotton price has no advantage, and 1% tariff imports still have advantages, but the quota is limited.

Therefore, the number of cotton imports has been shrinking in 2015, and the number of cotton imports in the first 10 months is only 1 million 200 thousand tons, far below the 2 million 80 thousand tons level in the same period in 2014.

Mainly cotton yarn imports, cotton yarn imports in recent years in a disguised impact on China.

In the first 10 months, China imported 1 million 820 thousand tons of cotton yarn, far higher than the 1 million 470 thousand tons in the same period last year.

The import price of cotton yarn is still lower than the domestic price of 1080 yuan / ton in the middle of 12. The import of cotton yarn will remain relatively high for a certain period of time, and there will still be some pressure on the domestic cotton yarn and cotton market.

Our country

Imports mainly come from Asian countries such as India, and India CCI has a 63-65 cent purchase price of the new year in the new year, which is directly converted to 8800-9100 yuan between India and China (1 yuan US dollar =6.34 yuan) at the exchange rate, that is, India's domestic market.

The cost of cotton processing is equivalent to RMB 8800-9100, and the cost of processing 32 yuan combs is 4000 yuan / ton, processing loss 1000 yuan / ton, yarn cost 13800-14100 yuan / ton, inland freight 500 yuan / ton, 17% value-added tax, 3.5% tariff, 300 yuan / ton port fee, then India yarn to domestic cost is between 17600-18000, if India yarn 32 RMB, China's domestic price is 18000, China's domestic yarn 32 price is also to this price 32, then according to the domestic domestic yarn processing cost 6500 yuan / ton, then the lowest domestic cotton cost 18000-6500=11500, that is, if domestic cotton price is lower than 11500, India yarn imports do not have an advantage at all, import to domestic is very difficult, and import to domestic is quite difficult, then cotton impact on domestic will be greatly reduced.

Coupled with the decline in the production area of the main producing countries, the inventory will continue to go up, and domestic consumption points will also be found.

Domestic cotton price spot 11500 yuan / ton, according to the operation of this year's base 0-1000, the bottom support of Zheng cotton futures is estimated to be between 10500-11500.