Interpretation Of The Stock Market: Gem Will Still Test The Effectiveness Of A Support.

Take the inertia of yesterday's plunge. Today, the two cities have opened sharply, and then have risen rapidly.

Led by the rally, the Shanghai Stock Index turned red at 9:50, followed by a narrow concussion to midday close. In the afternoon, the stock index slipped again and triggered a diving, and then rebounded to the end after 14:15; the hot spot of the plate: steel, ships, banks, military industry, broken assets and other sectors of the red plate, all the other sectors were floating green; overall: today, the market continues to fall out of the market.

No matter what the reason for the market adjustment is, we must face up to the result of the market adjustment. To return to the market itself, even if there is no fusing mechanism, except for the stock market crash in 2015, there have been many single day slump and continuous slump in the history. For the current market adjustment, we take the gem as an example. Yesterday, we have given the judgement of the magnitude: "in view of the current space for the continued release of energy, the theoretical goal of the gem is 2350 points and 2220 points respectively."

It is normal for the gem to rebound after the first support position in the afternoon after 2350 points, but this does not represent it.

The adjustment is in place, and the effectiveness of the support near the 2220 point should be greater in theory.

From a rational and objective point of view, we also said yesterday that "the fusing mechanism was used by the main force" also said: "the trigger fuse system has been implemented since January 4th, but this does not mean that the first day can not be triggered directly and triggered continuously. The air force power has obviously strengthened before the festival. It can be said that the main force just took advantage of the opportunity for the market to be adjusted, and the psychology that investors believed that the fusing mechanism could not happen on the first day accelerated the market collapse."

We believe that this angle is relatively objective, but our country has launched a price limit system.

Whether there are loopholes and loopholes for the main force is really worth reflecting.

To sum up a sentence: after a continuous decline, the market will rebound in short term, but this does not mean that the market is in place. The short term rebound will enable investors to do some T, take part in the selling part of the high price, and then fall back to the diluted cost.

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At present, China's financial situation is not optimistic.

At the end of last year, even experts and think-tank scholars suggested that the government increase its debt financing to support financial expenditure.

According to the Ministry of finance data, by the end of November last year, China's accumulated budget revenue was 139935 billion yuan, while the cumulative fiscal expenditure was 150223 billion yuan.

Over 1 trillion of the deficit has already put great pressure on the government.

Moreover, the direction of future policy is mainly based on fiscal expenditure to support economic growth.

The financial strength accumulated over the years is being gradually weakened.

In fact, excessive intervention in the market is not only a permanent solution, but also a heavy burden on itself.

From the point of view of the foreign exchange market, it is difficult to avoid the depreciation of the RMB whether from the fundamental considerations or policy considerations.

I have mentioned in the China gold net that the Fed's interest rate increase has been opened, and that the US dollar will be sought after by the market will be an inevitable trend in the future.

Today, the dollar shortage in Africa, South America and other places is a harbinger.

The downward pressure on China's domestic economy is obvious. No matter whether the pain is caused by economic pformation or its own unsustainable economic mode, the downward trend is inevitable.

PMI and PPI continue negative growth, overcapacity can not be resolved, unemployment is going to break out, banks' non-performing loans are rising and debt default is frequent.

Fundamentals do not support the strength of the renminbi at all.

The policy aspect is even more worrying.

The central bank's call for a cut in interest rates will be bigger and bigger. Easing policy will also be the future regulatory policy.

Going out of stock and landing capacity will further suppress economic growth.

The 15 year protection period of WTO will expire this year, and the government will be forced to reform and continue to relax its policy.

From the stock market, if we want to study the intrinsic value of the stock market, the price of the stock market in China is already an Arabian tale.

In 2013, China's stock market also hovered around 2000 fish.

The economic situation at that time was not healthy, but it was much better than before.

This round of stock market rise is entirely due to favorable policy support, conceptual speculation and leverage bubbles.

It can be said that the current stock market price itself is not normal.

In order to maintain market confidence, the national team contributed to support this distorted price.

This was originally a violation of the law of market development.

Without saying that the outcome will succeed, if it is an investor who firmly believes in value investing theory, it will understand that this unhealthy trend will only lead to even more painful tragedies.