World Trade Activity Is Declining, And China'S Imports And Exports Will Grow At A Low Speed.

In 2016, the world is still in the slow recovery period after the financial crisis, and the world trade activity is declining. China's imports and exports will grow at a low speed.

The share is basically stable.

First, the main characteristics of China's foreign trade operation.

1. the growth of import and export will double down, and the trend of structural improvement will continue.

Since 2015, China's foreign trade has accelerated downward trend. The import and export value of the first quarter, the two quarter and the three quarter decreased by 6.2%, 8.1% and 9.2%, respectively.

In the 2015 month of 1-11, the total import and export volume of China decreased by 7.8% compared with the same period last year, of which exports dropped by 2.2% and imports dropped by 14.4%.

The decline in international commodity prices led to a larger drop in imports and a widened trade surplus in the recession, reaching 3 trillion and 340 billion yuan in 1-11, an increase of 63% over the same period last year.

Since the reform and opening up, China's imports and exports have increased by an average annual growth rate of 19.5% and the average growth rate of export growth of about 20%.

Despite the sharp decline in foreign trade growth, structural pformation continued.

First, the diversification of trade partners has achieved fruitful results. In the 2015 month of 1-11, China's export growth has been well maintained for some countries along the way, and its exports to Bangladesh, Pakistan, Israel and other countries along the border have increased rapidly. The proportion of exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, India, Latin America and Africa has continued to rise, up nearly two percentage points from the same period last year.

The two is the optimization of trade structure and the growth of general trade exports.

In 1-11 months, China's general trade imports and exports accounted for 54.2% of the total trade value, representing a 0.3 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

Among them, the general trade export increased by 1.9%, which was 4.1 percentage points higher than that of the export growth volume.

Three, the main export products kept growing. In 1-11 months, the export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 1%, accounting for 57.6% of the total value of China's exports in the same period. Rail pit equipment, mobile phones, medical devices and equipment exports showed rapid growth.

Four, the power of independent trade has been enhanced. The proportion of private enterprises has increased by 2.2 percentage points over the same period last year. This shows that China's foreign trade has been gradually pformed from foreign capital to domestic enterprises, and the initiative in international trade and investment has been enhanced.

The five is the improvement of the terms of trade prices. In the 2015 month of 1-10, China's trade price index is 112.8, that is, the export of a certain quantity of goods can be exchanged for 12.8% of imports, which means that the efficiency of foreign trade has been enhanced.

2. traditional comparative advantage weakened, and business problems highlighted.

As the world economy has entered a new normal of slow growth and moderate growth, domestic economic growth has entered a new stage of pformation from high speed to high speed. China's foreign trade is characterized by deceleration and decline, structural pformation, difficulties in enterprise management, weak competitiveness in products and declining trade prices.

(1) the competitiveness of products is weak.

After China's accession to the world trade organization, foreign trade mainly obtains the international price advantage by low factor cost, and the export proportion of labor-intensive products is large, and the added value of electromechanical products is not high.

After the financial crisis, global market demand declined sharply, the growth rate of international trade declined, and overseas markets were fiercely contested.

The "re industrialization" strategy of developed countries has made technological progress and innovation more concentrated in these countries, and some key technologies and parts manufacturing reflux have accelerated.

Although China is the largest export country in the world, most of the products produced by enterprises, especially high technology products, are usually carried out in accordance with the design of other countries, which inhibits the improvement of China's independent innovation ability, and also leads to the impeding export of high-end products in the process of Global trade pformation.

At the same time, neighboring developing countries, with the advantage of low labor cost, continue to erode our market in the fields of clothing, shoes and hats, labor intensive industries and processing trade.

(2) foreign trade enterprises are not able to resist risks.

At present, the operating costs of China's foreign trade enterprises are rising in an all-round way, and are affected by demographic changes, real estate prices, energy saving and emission reduction and stringent environmental protection requirements.

The cost of energy, land, environment and other factors is continuously rising, and the profit margins of enterprises are squeezed. A large number of traditional industries and small and medium-sized enterprises lack the necessary capital, technology and talent accumulation, and the risk bearing capacity is weak. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are reluctant to maintain operation, and even bankruptcy appears.

3.2015 years, the pattern of foreign trade negative growth is difficult to change.

As the world economic growth in 2015 is lower than expected, the growth rate may decline compared with the previous year. The developed countries such as the United States and Europe have insufficient economic growth momentum, and the demand for China's traditional export market is slowing down. The emerging economies are expected to be affected by the US interest rate hike, and capital outflows are emerging.

The problem of excess capacity in China is serious, investment accelerated to decline, the cost of enterprise financing is high, and annual economic growth is expected to slow down.

With the general reduction of international and domestic demand, China's imports and exports are expected to maintain a downward trend throughout the year, with exports falling by 2% and imports by about 14%.

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Two, an objective understanding of the current trend of foreign trade.

Although China's foreign trade has obviously slowed down, we should understand China's foreign trade development from a global perspective and a historical perspective.

1, the position of the world's largest trading power is stable.

Since the financial crisis, world economic growth has been sluggish, international demand has been shrinking and Global trade is slowing down.

The International Monetary Fund recently predicted that the world economic growth will be lowered to 3.1% again this year, and the forecast value will continue to be lowered.

International demand is not strong, leading to trade deceleration. According to WTO data, the export volume of global merchandise trade decreased by 11.1% in 2015, 1-9, and significantly higher than that in China. Exports of the United States, the European Union, India, South Africa and Brazil decreased by 6.2%, 12.8%, 16.6%, 7.9% and 16.8%, respectively.

This means that the proportion of China's exports in the world market has not decreased, but it has increased moderately. Now it has increased from 12.4% at the end of 2014 to about 13%, maintaining the status of the world's largest trading power.

2, price factors lower nominal growth rate.

In 2015, international commodity prices continued to decline in 2014. Crude oil prices fell below US $40 from around us $100 a barrel in 2014, and the price of iron ore imports dropped from US $130 per ton in 2014 to US $60.

The sharp fall in international commodity prices has not only lowered China's import prices, but also restricted prices in the world's manufactured goods market.

2015 in the first three quarters of the year, China's total import price dropped by 11.6%, and the overall export price dropped by 3.5%.

Excluding the price effect, China's actual import growth has dropped by only 3.8%, and the actual growth rate of exports is 1.8%, much better than nominal growth.

In the 2015 month of 1-11, the import volume of 11 commodities, such as crude oil and iron ore, increased and the price dropped. The total reduction in foreign exchange payments was about US $about 182000000000. This means that the cost of energy and raw materials in our enterprises, especially in the manufacturing sector, is conducive to easing the current difficulties and improving the efficiency of enterprises.

3. Foreign trade has entered a low growth stage.

China's economic development has entered a "new normal". The factors and environmental advantages of foreign trade growth will undergo profound changes. China's rapid growth period of goods trade will basically come to an end and enter the middle and low speed growth stage.

Although there are still many factors that are conducive to China's foreign trade growth under the new normal, the constraints in the future can not be ignored.

Problems such as the loss of traditional comparative advantage in export trade, the increase in the cost of production and operation, the narrowing of the international market space, the increase in the effective exchange rate of RMB and the increasing number of trade sanctions will continue to deepen.

Overall, the growth rate of China's foreign trade imports and exports will shift from the original high speed growth to the low and medium speed growth, and the growth rate of import and export will be closer to the average growth level of world trade.

In addition, under the background of more emphasis on scientific development, structural adjustment, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, foreign trade as an important part of the national economy will focus on the import and export volume and growth rate of foreign trade in the past to the quantity and quality, speed and efficiency, scale and level, and speed will no longer be the main goal pursued.

Three, China's foreign trade is expected to be weak.

2016 is the opening year of the 13th Five-Year plan, and also the key year for the pformation and development of China's economic growth.

The world economy continues to grow at a low speed, and the international trade environment has deteriorated. The short-term risks in the domestic economic field are concentrated, and pressures and challenges are unprecedented.

The trend of slowing growth of foreign trade in China is difficult to change, and structural adjustment and pformation will continue.

1. the world economy has entered the "new mediocrity", and the international trade and investment environment is tightening up.

(1) slow growth of world economy

In 2016, the world economy will continue to maintain a moderate recovery trend. The main economies will continue to differentiate, the developed economies will get better and the emerging economies will further deteriorate.

The world bank and the International Monetary Fund and other institutions have repeatedly lowered the world economic growth forecast.

The US real estate market recovery, manufacturing expansion, employment indicators improved, household consumption capacity and expected improvement, growth is expected to increase slightly in 2016.

The euro area is further strengthened by the low crude oil price, weakening euro and quantitative easing policy.

Japan is facing deflation risk and its economic growth is slow.

The trend of slowing down of emerging economies is hard to reverse. The negative growth of GDP in resource-based countries such as Brazil and Russia has not changed, and the capital outflow in emerging markets is grim.

(2) Global trade is difficult to change.

After the financial crisis, due to the implementation of the policy of re industrialization in developed countries and the export oriented strategy in developing countries, the overseas market has become the focus of competition among all countries. The trend of trade protection has been constantly enhanced, and the WTO rules have been shelved. A new round of regional ball trading rules are being established, and the vitality of international trade has been significantly affected.

At the same time, the economic structure of developed countries is dominated by consumer demand and service industries. The demand and industrial structure of major developing countries such as China are upgrading, and global demand is gradually pformed from physical goods to non tradable service goods.

World trade will continue to slow down in the process of changing global demand.

Although IMF expects global trade to grow by 4.5% in 2016, combined with the actual drop in World Trade in 2015, considering the various factors affecting trade activities and the possibility of overestimating trade growth by the IMF report, the actual growth rate is expected to be lower than expected.

(3) low price fluctuation of international commodity prices

In 2016, the international commodity prices under the influence of supply and demand factors, it is difficult to rebound significantly, but because oil prices, iron ore prices and so on are basically at the bottom, and the possibility of continued rapid decline is smaller.

First, the international market supply of crude oil, iron ore, grain and other bulk commodities is still maintaining a relaxed situation; two, the US dollar will soon enter the interest rate cycle, and the US dollar denominated commodity prices are relatively down; three, Russia launched an air raid against the Syria opposition, and the Iraqi civil war is still difficult to calm down. The geopolitical factors will increase the uncertainty of the price trend of international crude oil and other products.

According to the current international commodity price level, there is limited space for price fluctuation in 2016, which is conducive to maintaining the nominal growth of China's foreign trade.

(4) changes in trade and investment rules

After the financial crisis, the developed countries adopted the strategy of reconstructing the international trade order and launched negotiations on TISA (International Service Trade Agreement), TPP (p Pacific (9.210, -0.61, -6.21%) partnership agreement) and TTIP (p the Atlantic (8.920, -0.20, -2.19%) trade and investment partnership).

Among them, the US led TPP negotiations have made substantial progress in October, involving zero tariffs, including free movement of goods and services, and become the most widely covered regional trade agreements in the Asia Pacific region.

This agreement will exclude our country and will have an important impact on the expansion of foreign trade enterprises next step.

Research shows that the export diversion and loss of interest caused by TPP will reduce GDP by 2.2% in China.

Although the final signing of TPP will take about a year or so, the impact of TPP on foreign direct investment in China has emerged. In 2015, the US investment in China dropped by about 20%.

In 2016, TPP will indirectly affect trade in goods by influencing China's use of foreign capital.

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2. domestic economic operation opportunities and challenges coexist, and support in the field of foreign trade is intensified.

In 2016, the fundamentals of China's economy have not changed for a long time. With the full liberalization of the reform, its dividends have been continuously released, but some deep-rooted contradictions and problems in the economic operation are constantly emerging. The downward pressure is still greater, and the environment for foreign trade development is full of joy and sorrow.

(1) the weakening of traditional comparative advantage in foreign trade enterprises

First, labor costs are rising.

At present, China's per capita GDP has reached about US $8000, the living standard of the people has improved significantly, and the labor wages and related benefits have been significantly improved.

In 2001, at the beginning of China's accession to the world trade organization, the per capita annual income of urban residents was 6869 yuan, and the per capita annual income in 2013 was 28844 yuan, an increase of 320%.

According to the calculation, the average annual growth rate of employment personnel in China is more than 10%, which is higher than the average wage growth level of OECD countries.

At the same time, the state attaches great importance to improving people's livelihood, and the minimum wage and basic welfare benefits have increased year by year.

On the other hand, the labor costs of neighboring countries such as Indonesia, Burma, Vietnam and Thailand are all lower than those of China. The international market competition of labor-intensive products is more intense, and the prices of products are basically stable throughout the year.

The sharp rise in labor costs in China has led to serious compression of the profit margins of foreign trade enterprises, and traditional price advantages have been challenged.

The two is the rising cost of land use.

The cost of land purchase, lease and plant construction is an important expenditure for trade enterprises to engage in production and investment in fixed assets.

In the end of the end of 2003 to the end of 2014, the land purchase price rose by 460% or so.

In the process of rapid economic expansion, land resources have gradually become a scarce factor, and the cost of land and rental costs of enterprises have significantly improved.

Three, the supporting ability of environmental elements is weakened.

After joining the WTO, in the process of rapid expansion of exports, the added value of China's export products is relatively low. Foreign trade development mainly relies on tangible elements such as resources, energy, land and environment, which has caused problems such as tight supply of domestic energy and resources, excessive exploitation, significant destruction of ecological environment, and decline of environmental carrying capacity.

According to the new normal theory, from the constraints of resources and environment, the space of energy resources and ecological environment in the past is relatively large, and the environmental carrying capacity has reached or near the upper limit.

This means that the development of foreign trade and the import and export of enterprises can not continue to ignore the cost of ecological environment. It is imperative to promote resource conservation and environmental protection measures such as cleaner production, strengthening prevention and back-end management, which will lead to additional costs of product production, lower prices and lower profits.

(2) increase in RMB exchange rate flexibility

Exchange rate changes directly affect the cost and income of import and export commodities, and are important factors affecting the growth of foreign trade.

In order to improve the degree of marketization of the RMB intermediate price and expand the actual operating space of the market exchange rate and better play the regulatory role of the exchange rate on foreign exchange supply and demand, the people's Bank of China has decided to improve the quoted price of the RMB exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar. After August 10, 2015, the nominal effective exchange rate index and the effective effective exchange rate index decreased, and the effective exchange rate index remained volatile.

The elasticity of RMB exchange rate has gradually increased, and the lagging effect of early depreciation on exports will show slightly.

However, since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, the RMB has entered a long term unilateral appreciation channel and has appreciated by more than 30% against the US dollar.

According to the reckoning of the bank for International Settlements, the effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated by 55.5% since July 2005.

The long-term impact of exchange rate appreciation on foreign trade can not be ignored.

(3) the new competitive advantage is gradually taking shape.

Although the traditional comparative advantage of China has changed, the new advantages of supporting trade upgrading are gradually forming and appearing.

The first is the promotion of human capital advantages.

In recent years, the education level of our employment personnel has been steadily improved. Every year, nearly half of the newly graduated labor force graduates are in University. Especially after 2005, they have benefited from the popularization of higher education, and the speed of the improvement of the education level of the employed personnel has been further accelerated.

At the same time, high-end talent continued to return, in 2004, more than 20 thousand returned personnel, increased to more than 50 thousand in 2008, and increased to 345 thousand in 2013.

The two is the enhancement of industrial base and innovation capability.

China's industrial system is becoming more and more complete, has strong industrial supporting capabilities, infrastructure has improved significantly, technological innovation has deepened day by day, the rapid development of strategic emerging industries has driven the import and export of related products and technologies, and the comprehensive advantages of export of foreign trade enterprises will be further enhanced.

Three, new opportunities for foreign investment.

After the financial crisis, China's large enterprises actively carried out overseas asset mergers and acquisitions, reorganization and other activities, creating a good opportunity for the development of international markets.

Among them, mergers and acquisitions in the US and European enterprises not only acquire advanced technology, R & D capability, international brands and international sales channels, but also have important significance for enterprises to enhance their existing technological capabilities and enhance the global value chain potential.

The next step is to steadily push forward the strategy of "one belt and one road" and give full play to the role of Asian investment bank, which will help foreign trade enterprises to develop new markets and promote capital and technology intensive industries, especially manufactured goods exports.

(4) stabilizing foreign trade regulation and control policies

The state promotes the integration of regional customs clearance, implements the "three major customs clearance" policies, speeds up the integration and optimization of the special regulatory areas, and clean-up and standardizing the import and export links involving enterprises' fees and so on. The implementation and implementation will continuously optimize the environment for foreign trade development, promote stable growth of foreign trade, and create "2025" in China.

In the process of such strategy, new products, new formats and new modes of cross-border e-commerce and high-speed railways are emerging. This will provide new opportunities for China's foreign trade enterprises to enhance their competitiveness. The expansion of China's opening up system will accelerate, the function of industrial agglomeration of export bases will increase, and the ability of professional markets to enhance foreign trade will provide competitive power for foreign trade growth.

3.2016 years forecast

In 2016, world economic growth is still facing greater pressure. Global trade shows a trend of slowing down. Domestic labor, land, environmental protection and other costs continue to rise, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated significantly, China's foreign trade has slowed down and shifted gears, and its growth rate has been approaching Global trade growth, but the international market share is expected to remain stable.

Initially, China's foreign trade will increase slightly or zero in 2016.

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Four, policy orientation and Countermeasures

1., vigorously enhance enterprise's ability to resist risks.

Enterprises are the main body of the development of foreign trade. Improving the competitiveness and risk tolerance of enterprises is the foundation and core for stabilizing the growth of foreign trade.

One is to continue to reduce the burden of foreign trade enterprises.

To release the dividend of reform and keep the market stable, the most important thing is to stimulate the vitality and power of the micro body - the enterprise.

On the one hand, the cost of labor, land and environment is rigid and difficult to reduce through policy burden.

The next step is to consider the implementation of the policy focus in reducing paction costs and operating costs, reducing the examination and approval links for foreign trade enterprises, clearing unnecessary taxes and fees, reducing administrative expenses of enterprises, and strengthening the establishment of an international trade information system to help enterprises avoid trade risks and reduce losses caused by trade barriers.

On the other hand, combined with the opportunity to revitalize the stock of fiscal funds, we should increase financial support for foreign trade enterprises, speed up the export tax rebate tax refund, appropriately reduce taxes on foreign trade enterprises, and provide financial benefits to foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises in terms of public services.

The two is to encourage foreign trade enterprises to innovate and develop.

We should give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources, comprehensively deepen the reform, pform the functions of the government, and strengthen the dominant position of large enterprises in innovation.

In the process of playing a regulatory role, the government should take market demand as the guide and take social forces as the basis, reduce the cost of innovation, encourage large enterprises to concentrate on R & D innovation, and implement cooperative innovation in key areas through the form of Innovation Alliances.

At the same time, drawing on international experience, we encourage foreign trade enterprises to attach importance to integrated innovation, focusing on the core advanced manufacturing products, and constantly improving the basic, subtle and differentiated details of innovative activities such as spare parts, ancillary facilities and supporting services, so as to enhance the added value of products and enhance their new strength.

2. actively develop cross-border e-commerce.

Promoting the development of new formats of foreign trade and promoting the construction of cross border e-commerce system are conducive to expanding overseas markets, reducing enterprise costs and improving operational efficiency.

First, we should encourage strong electric power providers to go out, cooperate with the expansion of foreign trade of entities, set up branches and marketing service systems overseas, and build a global e-commerce network system and logistics, warehousing and operation system with the help of international information wave, and explore new paths for China's foreign trade development.

Two, we should increase preferential policies in terms of finance, taxation and credit, support the construction of key businesses and major projects of cross-border e-commerce, encourage SMEs to expand international markets through cross-border e-commerce, and achieve the goal of mass innovation and entrepreneurship.

Three, we should establish and improve the supervision of cross border e-commerce, create a system of systematic service and supervision and management, and select the "single window" comprehensive service system for cross border e-commerce, such as customs clearance, commodity inspection, settlement and tax refund in some areas, and gradually expand the scope of the trial.

3. actively respond to the impact of the p Pacific Partnership Agreement.

TPP countries have reached an agreement, but the impact on China's foreign trade in the short term is not significant, but the long-term impact can not be ignored.

First, we must actively develop bilateral cooperation with the Asia Pacific countries to hedge the role of TPP.

Maintain close contacts with Asian Pacific countries, especially TPP member countries, increase political mutual trust, tap potential for cooperation, and strengthen cooperation in such fields as economic and trade, investment, finance, science and technology innovation, environmental protection, human resources and social governance, and reduce the impact of TPP on China's exports by signing bilateral free trade and investment agreements.

At the same time, we will upgrade all China's more than ten FTA agreements with 22 countries and regions, including ASEAN and Chile, and the negotiations on regional comprehensive economic partnership agreements with other countries. We will gradually build a network of free trade zones covering the whole world and reduce the impact of TPP.

Two, we should give full play to the role of the Asian investment bank, combine the current trend of international industrial pfer, and support the strong foreign trade enterprises in China to invest and build factories, undertake projects and provide services, and steadily promote the strategy of overseas market share.