China'S Stock Market Starts To Plummet And Reform Cattle Meet Value Revaluation

If the media can continue to strengthen some expected trend, it will form a consensus in the market, leading to the convergence effect of herding, thus leading to the trend of mad cow and fast bear, which is not conducive to the healthy development of the capital market.

At the Davos forum, Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, said that the root cause of market turbulence is the revaluation of asset value in China.

China's economy is in a period of pformation. The supply side of the economy does not meet the demand, and opportunities lie in the supply side reform.

Fang Xinghai said in his speech, "although China's stock market has fallen by 40% over the highest point, it is still 30% higher than a year and a half ago, and the valuation is still considerable."

Although Fang Xinghai also said that China's stock market shock is not too big a problem, strong leadership can cope with the situation.

It may be followed by an official political statement.

At the beginning of the new year, China's stock market began to plummet, its market value loss was serious, investors suffered heavy losses, how to interpret the market crash and the market had different voices, but Fang Xinghai made the first interpretation from an official angle, which is of great significance. First of all, the chairman said that it was 30% higher than a year and a half ago, and the valuation is still considerable.

The implication is that China's stock market crash has not entered the bear market stage, and the increase is still considerable, and the other is that the valuation is still considerable. This point must be highly valued by us. What is called valuing is considerable, that is to say, the valuation is also high. There is a certain bubble in the market, and there is no underestimation in the market. The stock market decline is a return of value rather than an unreasonable revaluation. It is a normal "asset revaluation". It shows that the current position is not low but high enough. As long as we observe carefully, the stock market in China is more than 100 times earnings per share. It is still more than 45 times. According to former chairman Guo Shuqing, the majority of the P / E ratios are toxic assets, and the stock market is a natural market adjustment behavior, which is not worth a fuss. Words and expressions

President Xiao Gang has similar concerns that "in the specific market environment in China, we must pay special attention to the risk of high asset prices". Of course, chairman Xiao did not specify whether there was any bubble in the stock market, but the future direction of supervision is to prevent bubble regeneration and expansion. Since it is the focus of preventing bubbles, the so-called reform of buffalo assets may be difficult to see.

Is it possible for the author to understand this?

Do not look to the bull market, do not expect the government to strongly rescue the market, the callback is normal, is the normal return of value, the rise is not normal, is the bubble in the re accumulation, because Fang Xinghai also pointed out that the government should reduce interference in the market behavior.

The author took the trouble to explain and explain the views of the chairman. According to Chairman Xiao Gang, there were irrational factors that caused the market overheating, such as leveraged funds, procedural pactions and concentrated public opinion. What role should the media play in the construction of the capital market? Of course, excessive singing is not right. Whether it is a single flavor or not is mainly about the views of Dong Shaopeng, an expert on stock market policy.

One of Dong Shaopeng's core ideas for the stock market is the stock market crash, which stems from the market's criticism of the reform of cattle. To some extent, the collapse of the stock market began to criticize the reform of cattle. Although Dong Shaopeng believes that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market has been rising for a period of time, there is inherent demand for adjustment.

However, it is still thought that the "bull market" will rise because of a series of good anticipation of deepening reform measures, and it will also develop in depth with the success of reform.

In May 28th, when the stock market continued to rise for 10 months, the storm fell suddenly, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.5%, and Shenzhen composite index fell 6.19%.

Some investors believe that such a slump means that the bull market is coming to an end.

So, how should we look at this collapse? Dong Shaopeng: from the end of last 7 to the end of May and the beginning of June, it should be said that the increase is still very impressive, and the accumulated profit margin is objective.

Any market does not say that it will rise or fall, and that the adjustment is inevitable. Even in some sectors, there should be further adjustment.

But at the same time, we see that adjustment does not prevent investors from reforming under the background of comprehensive reform.

Expectations are maintained and can continue.

In the view of Mr Tung, there are many bubbles in the past and now, at least one thousand points of the bubble. But even if it is a bubble, as a new bull market, it is bound to break through the previous high point, otherwise it will not be called bull market. This is the basic logic.

Therefore, the 6124 point of October 2007 must be broken.

Of course, it may not be broken this year, maybe next year.

Dong Shaopeng's view in the first half is objective and fair, and the latter half is too optimistic. After Zhuge's eyes, he has obviously misjudged the market so far.

Dong Shaopeng's new year's first article seems to be a great prosperity after the great rule. This long article can be said to be logical and smooth, and to raise to a certain height is a masterpiece, which reflects Mr. Tung's solid theoretical foundation and rich knowledge. But in another way, the prosperity of this article is worth considering. I feel more inclined to the expansion of the stock market rather than the protection of the interests of investors, and even the core problem of capital market expansion and reduction. Therefore, at the beginning of the new year, with the worry of expansion and the reduction of industrial capital and the exchange rate under the pressure of 15, the black market trend has been opened. Until now, the market's main tone is still down and adjusted. 15 years have passed, and breaking the 6124 points is absolutely impossible. It can only become an inextravagant hope.

All of a sudden, he fell to the bottom of Li Xiao Xiao's baby. Prosperity became a catastrophe.

If investors listen to Dong Shaopeng's great prosperity and enter the stock market, they will suffer heavy losses. The media statistics result is a loss of 100 thousand yuan per capita. Although we can not simply judge the right and wrong views of Dong Shaopeng by short-term trend, as a market stock market policy expert, excessive publicity should be cautious, so as to prevent misleading the market and mislead investors.

Yes

Dong Shaopeng has a special feeling. The "reform cow" will eventually be pformed into "economic cow", "market cow" and "institutional cow".

It is predicted that the reform of cattle will last for at least three years.

Such a judgment is not too arbitrary. The author is just a little scattered, and has no ability to predict that far. But chairman Fang Xinghai's view is still relatively clear. "The valuation is still considerable." the current fall is "value revaluation". President Xiao Gang also believes that the future market mainly prevents the risk of "high risk of asset prices". Is it possible for the writer to understand that Dong Shaopeng's views on valuation differ somewhat from those of the two presidents? Dong Shaopeng's bull market should consider that the current valuation is very reasonable or underestimated, while the two chairmen believe that the current valuation is not overestimated or even overestimated. If the two chairmen's arguments are correct, then Dong Shaopeng's bull market will lose its meaning.

Judging from the trend, Dong Shaopeng's views were scattered during the 15 year's stock market crash. Now the index should be lower than the index. Dong Shaopeng's bull market has already broken its own way. Now, Dong Shaopeng's prosperity is once again faced with the different views of the two presidents. In the face of the chattering China's stock market, should Dong Shaopeng review his own views? According to the author's point of view, there should be two meanings in the prosperity, one is the prosperity of the financing, and the other is the prosperity of the index, and it is definitely not just the prosperity of financing. Do I have any objection to Dong Shaopeng?

To see more Chinese stock markets is not wrong, but the stock market is different. Too much stock and more stock market will mislead the market and mislead investors. When the stock market is over depressed, Dong Shaopeng has made many achievements. But when the stock market goes up, it still does not change much. I feel a bit overoptimistic. In such an immature stock market like China, the alarm bell must be firmly knocked out to prevent the stock market bubbles from appearing too soon, so as to avoid the alternation of mad cows and fast bears, and not to know what Dong Shaopeng sees. The author is still the same sentence. The author is just a little scattered. If there is anything wrong, I will ask Dong Shaopeng to spare no effort to advise him. I will listen to him and listen to it any time. There is nothing wrong with watching China too much.

The note is written by the author on the Securities Daily website blog, but because of the rush at the time, some meaning was not expressed clearly, so after correcting it, uploaded here, the author and Mr. Tung have different views, but the starting point is also for the health and development of China's stock market. If there is any mistake, please ask Mr. Dong Hai Han.