Developed Economies Benefit More From Industry 4

The white paper entitled "extreme automation and connectivity: the impact of the fourth industrial revolution on the global, regional and investment fields" was released at the annual session of the Davos world economic forum.

The white paper points out that extreme automation and connectivity are pushing the fourth industrial revolution, which may greatly change the way of economic development and the distribution of wealth, which will have a significant impact on the relative competitiveness of the global economy and developed countries, emerging countries and investors.

It is pointed out that those who are at the top of income, skills and wealth will gain more benefits in the process of differentiation, and may also be in the most advantageous position from a technical standpoint.

The competitive advantage of the United States and the reserve currency status of the US dollar may lead to the US.

Continued strength will exacerbate the challenges faced by the developing markets linked to the US dollar.

The white paper believes that in the industrial 4 process, the developed economies are more developed.

Will benefit more.

Because the low skilled labor force in developing economies is no longer an advantage, but it becomes more hindrance, and those economies with the most flexible labor market, educational system, infrastructure and legal system may be relatively benefited, because they can well adjust the labor force resources and business models to conform to the highly automated and connected global situation.

Traditional industries in various regions are expected to collapse further due to extreme automation and connectivity. New companies, including those with significant side data and block chain applications, are expected to benefit from this collapse process.

Many developing markets rely on input and low skilled employment to promote economic growth, but they can not quickly adjust infrastructure, education or regulatory systems to meet the needs of more skilled workers in the global development and greater investment in high-tech manufacturing or knowledge intensive industries.

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In 2016, the operation of CPI will be stable and there will be no significant fluctuations.

The continued adequacy of liquidity will push CPI up slightly.

The 2016 CPI may be wavy, with a monthly average of about 0.25% higher than that in 2015, but significantly lower than that in 2012 and 2013.

CPI is expected to rise to about 1.8% in 2016, and the annual trend is affected by seasonal vegetable prices such as vegetables, fresh fruits and aquatic products.

However, Lian Ping stressed that the pressure of economic operation is still relatively large in the current and future period due to the complex and turbulent economic and financial situation at home and abroad.

It is particularly important to create a sound financing environment, maintain stable operation of the money supply and further reduce the cost of financing.

He expects that the monetary policy in 2016 will remain stable and slack, and the broad money M2 will grow at around 13%.

The supply of bank credit is relatively stable, the allocation of non credit assets will be more flexible, and the proportion of all kinds of direct financing will also be improved.

The scale of social financing in the whole year may reach 16 trillion and 500 billion yuan, of which the new credit is about 12 trillion and 700 billion yuan.

The central bank will also guide the financial institutions to carry out loans in reasonable, moderate and smooth manner and non credit asset allocation through macro Prudential evaluation system.

The exchange rate policy is mainly to keep the effective exchange rate of RMB basically stable.

The market will pay more attention to the exchange rate of RMB against a basket of currencies.

As for monetary policy tools, Lian Ping expects that the deposit reserve ratio will still moderate in 2016, and it is expected to be cut 2-4 times a year, with 50 basis points per time.

In order to further enhance flexibility and pertinence, at the same time prepare for the pformation of monetary policy framework and the construction of interest rate corridor mechanism, SLF, MLF, PSL, directional RR, directional refinancing and other innovative and directional tools are used more frequently.