Lian Ping Expects Economic Growth To Reach 6.7 In 2016.

Chief economist Lian Ping, 21, said in Beijing that according to the analysis of investment, exports and consumption, using model logic analysis and corresponding revision, it is expected that economic growth in 2016 will reach 6.7%.

He made the above statement on the outlook of China's macroeconomic and financial outlook in 2016.

Lian Ping predicts that there will be uncertainty in the economic operation in 2016: the global economy is slowly recovering but the prospects are uncertain.

Raising interest rates and low volatility of commodities; double pressure on capacity and industrial deflation; and whether real estate investment can be stabilized.

In the first half of the year, due to the slow growth of investment funds in early stage, the growth rate of real estate investment may continue downward, and the economic growth rate has further downward pressure.

After the two quarter, a large number of steady growth policies were gradually released. The intensity of the current policy has gradually increased, and the economic operation has stabilized.

The economic growth rate in the four quarters of 2016 is expected to be 6.6%, 6.7%, 6.8% and 6.7% respectively.

For CPI, Lian Ping believes that the operation of CPI will be stable in 2016, and there will be no significant fluctuations.

The continued adequacy of liquidity will push CPI up slightly.

The 2016 CPI may be wavy, with a monthly average of about 0.25% higher than that in 2015, but significantly lower than that in 2012 and 2013.

CPI is expected to rise to about 1.8% in 2016, and the annual trend is affected by seasonal vegetable prices such as vegetables, fresh fruits and aquatic products.

however

It is emphasized that under the influence of complex and turbulent economic and financial situation at home and abroad, the pressure of economic operation is still relatively large in the current and future period.

It is particularly important to create a sound financing environment, maintain stable operation of the money supply and further reduce the cost of financing.

He expects full year 2016.

Will maintain a strong loose pattern, broad money M2 growth rate of around 13%.

The supply of bank credit is relatively stable, the allocation of non credit assets will be more flexible, and the proportion of all kinds of direct financing will also be improved.

The scale of social financing in the whole year may reach 16 trillion and 500 billion yuan, of which the new credit is about 12 trillion and 700 billion yuan.

The central bank will also guide the financial institutions to carry out loans in reasonable, moderate and smooth manner and non credit asset allocation through macro Prudential evaluation system.

The exchange rate policy is mainly to keep the effective exchange rate of RMB basically stable.

The market will pay more attention to the exchange rate of RMB against a basket of currencies.

As for monetary policy tools, Lian Ping expects that the deposit reserve ratio will still moderate in 2016, and it is expected to be cut 2-4 times a year, with 50 basis points per time.

In order to further enhance flexibility and pertinence, at the same time prepare for the pformation of monetary policy framework and the construction of interest rate corridor mechanism, SLF, MLF, PSL, directional RR, directional refinancing and other innovative and directional tools are used more frequently.