Deng Haiqing Read Last Month'S Social Financing Increments

In December 2015, M2 was 13.3%, 13.6%, 13.7%, and 597 billion 800 million yuan, 700 billion, 708 billion 900 million, 1 trillion and 820 billion, 1 trillion and 150 billion, and 10 trillion and 200 billion.

Economist Deng Haiqing commented as follows:

1, in December, the scale of social integration increased far beyond market expectations, and 1 trillion and 820 billion was far higher than the market expectation of 1 trillion and 150 billion, which was also much higher than that of 2015.

From the structural point of view, the scale of "non trust" represented by "trust + trust" is 389 billion, the highest value in 2015, bond financing 470 billion, the highest record since data, 153 billion 300 million of stock financing, and the highest record of data, and 151 billion 300 million of bill financing, which is second higher in 2015.

2, the two yuan data of new RMB loans are different, and the scale of loans in social integration is still high.

In the central bank's "financial statistics report 2015", the "new RMB loans" increased by 597 billion 800 million in December. However, in the central bank's "2015 social financing scale increments statistics report", December "RMB loans to the real economy" increased by 833 billion, significantly better than that of the central bank in 2015.

New RMB loans and market expectations.

3, December, "M1 year-on-year -M2 year-on-year", "M1-M0 year-on-year" characterization of the level of capital activation continued to increase, the highest since 2011.

It is pointed out that the M1 index shows that the business activity has been improved, and there are three specific factors. First, there are more regular shifts in enterprise deposits at the end of last year; secondly, the state has increased the intensity of steady growth; third, since the second half of last year, the securities margin of the securities companies has been greatly reduced.

4, from the December financial data, super high

There is a huge contrast with the "asset shortage". Financing of "non-standard", bonds, equity and bills has soared and the loan scale has also maintained a relatively high level.

At the same time, enterprise activity has indeed improved. It is expected that corporate financing will continue to improve in the future.

Under the background that the central bank's "water supply" is lower than the market expectation, the demand for corporate financing is getting warmer (the demand for capital is more), and the "asset shortage" situation is expected to end.