Registration System Reform Should Not Be Too Fast

"New Year's rainy season, Chinese stock investors cried, asking where the restaurant is," the shepherd boy refers to the "fusing village"! Xie Baisan, director of Fudan University's financial and Capital Market Research Center, sighed, "the fusing mechanism is very stupid."

In January 9th, she arrived in Chengdu, and after a short rest, she arrived at the new opportunity for innovation finance and the 2016 investment strategy press conference, sharing the unique views on 2016's macro economy and stock market with a humorous and vivid language.

The venue, which is scheduled to accommodate 300 spectators, is still full after several bookings.

The speech, which was scheduled for 45 minutes, was also extended to 110 minutes.

This is also the most popular and most popular meeting of ideas since the annual investment strategy conference was held.

Under the present circumstances, Xie said that some US dollars could be exchanged.

But can the renminbi be changed into dollars? It also confuses "no" because, according to the purchasing power, China's purchasing power is still the first in the world.

In fact, about 2016

The two point of view is also related to the depreciation of RMB.

"In a more pessimistic view, it is considered that the bad currency is more prominent. After all, China's stock market assets are also RMB assets."

Xie Baisan said, but in Lido, it also includes the depreciation of the renminbi.

"Currency devaluation does not mean that the stock market has fallen. For example, after the Japanese election in 2012, the depreciation of the Japanese yen and the rise of the stock market have been increasing."

In 2016, the investment was flexible and guerrilla, and a small victory was a great victory. "I think China is in the fifth best period in five thousand years."

Xie Baisan said that although it still faces adjustment in the short term, it is optimistic about China's economy in the long run.

In Xie Baisan's view that China's economy has long been promising, the first thing to bear is that at present, China's labor force is still cheap, and high-end talent salaries are not high, and exports are competitive. Besides, Chinese people still have strong demand in education, medical treatment, housing and so on.

At 14:45 on January 7th, Xie criticized micro-blog's "fusing mechanism" as "the mechanism of breaking up" and suggested that "suspend and cancel immediately".

On the evening of the same day, the SFC immediately suspended the fusing mechanism and issued a notice on the suspension of stock index futures fusible system.

Although the market can be temporarily recuperation, there are still some uncertainties in Xie's view.

Among them, what worries him most is the reduction of new rules by major shareholders.

Although the provisions of the major shareholders of listed companies and the high shareholding of directors and supervisors in January 9th have been implemented since January 9th, "the total number of major shareholders within three months shall not exceed the total number of shares of the company".

But this did not reduce the market's concern about "reducing the tide".

"There are many loopholes in the reduction of the new rules."

It is pointed out that there is no restriction on OTC pactions. This also means that large shareholders can trade 2%-3% shares through the OTC market, so that they are no longer "big shareholders". They will no longer be subject to the "March limit" for reducing the new rules and they can "run away" at any time.

This problem is especially serious for SME boards and gem.

Because from July 7th to January 7, 2016, more than 5% of the major shareholders in state shares and corporate shares were held up for half a year, and they had been roiling away for a long time.

Although Xie said, "even if these large shareholders run out, they will not be afraid, because in the current low interest environment, their money will not go anywhere, or they will return to the capital market."

But it is certain that if the loophole is not dealt with, the system of reduction is invalid.

As early as next week, the impact will come.

Another uncertain factor is the registration system.

"Although the registration system is good for brokerage stocks, it is bad for the stock market as a whole."

Xie Baisan said that in the 70 million 140 thousand economic entities, if 1 of them picked out a good one, then 7000 new listed companies would be selected. If 7000 of them picked one, that would be 1 000, so the market would be overwhelmed.

It is believed that the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange will care for their own market and will not allow thousands of new shares to go public.

But overall, "

It's still too early to be very careful in testing. "

Xie Baisan told reporters that "registration system should be carried out slowly, should not be too fast, and should wait for several years."

For the current part of the stock market system "changes", Xie also worried.

"There are several elements in the financial market, first of all, credit. Secondly, the market system can not be changed. Once it is decided, it must be stable and can not be changed.

We are constantly changing, and our minds are not steadfast. Once again, innovation can not be created unnecessarily. We must prepare for it. "

The devaluation of the RMB market is bad for the stock market.

Xie also expressed his views on the devaluation of the renminbi.

Xie Baisan believes that the renminbi has no basis for long-term depreciation.

Because China's economic growth is still over 6.5%, the renminbi is the second largest currency in the world, and its purchasing power is very strong. In addition, China's exports have been surplus and foreign exchange reserves are as high as 3 trillion and 500 billion US dollars. Therefore, the RMB will not be greatly depreciated and depreciated to 1:7.

In the view of Xie Bai San, the depreciation of the RMB has more advantages than disadvantages for China's economy, because 85%-90% is exported in more than 7000 million economic entities.

In addition, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will have an impact on the domestic population, but it will not be too great.

Because everyone's clothing, food and shelter are all from China unless they go abroad.

Do not be too pessimistic about the exchange rate, nor do you have any confidence in the Chinese economy because of its devaluation.

In the investment meeting, Xie shares his experience with investors.

He took the stock of SAIC, Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. as an example, saying that "asset restructuring is an eternal theme in the stock market" and investors are advised to invest exclusively in stocks with safety umbrella.

In early 2015, it was predicted that "this bull market is the most difficult to operate" in any bull market. It also told investors that if 2015 is a demand for wealth and insurance, then 2016 will be a solid and flexible guerrilla campaign.

Among them, securities companies, large consumer stocks and so on can be concerned.

"We must buy stocks that will not be lost, and we have this opportunity every year."